The Evolving Sigmoid: Evidence for Magnetic Flux Ropes in the Corona Before, During, and After CMES

It is generally accepted that the energy that drives coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is magnetic in origin. Sheared and twisted coronal fields can store free magnetic energy which ultimately is released in the CME. We explore the possibility of the specific magnetic configuration of a magnetic flux rope of field lines that twist about an axial field line. The flux rope model predicts coronal observables, including heating along forward or inverse S-shaped, or sigmoid, topological surfaces. Therefore, studying the observed evolution of such sigmoids prior to, during, and after the CME gives us crucial insight into the physics of coronal storage and release of magnetic energy. In particular, we consider (1) soft-X-ray sigmoids, both transient and persistent; (2) The formation of a current sheet and cusp-shaped post-flare loops below the CME; (3) Reappearance of sigmoids after CMEs; (4) Partially erupting filaments; (5) Magnetic cloud observations of filament material.     

Erratum to: Determination of the Probability of Collision of Near-Earth Space Objects Taking into Account Form and Orientation

Cosmic Research - An Erratum to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0010952521120030     

Estimation of Correlation Functions by Stochastic Approximation

Two techniques for estimating the correlation function of a stationary random process using the method of stochastic approximation are developed. Both provide updated estimates as successive T-second observations are processed. Both assume a functional form for the correlation function that depends on a number of parameters that are estimated. One technique is based on the mean-square error; the other maximizes a likelihood function. Examples are included.     

Potential Effects of Surface Temperature Variations and Disturbances and Thermal Convection on the Mars InSight HP<Superscript>3</Superscript> Heat-Flow Determination

The HP³ instrument on the InSight lander mission will measure subsurface temperatures and thermal conductivities from which heat flow in the upper few meters of the regolith at the landing site will be calculated. The parameter to be determined is steady-state conductive heat flow, but temperatures may have transient perturbations resulting from surface temperature changes and there could be a component of thermal convection associated with heat transport by vertical flow of atmospheric gases over the depth interval of measurement. The experiment is designed so that it should penetrate to a depth below which surface temperature perturbations are smaller than the required measurement precision by the time the measurements are made. However, if the measurements are delayed after landing, and/or the probe does not penetrate to the desired depth, corrections may be necessary for the transient perturbations. Thermal convection is calculated to be negligible, but these calculations are based on unknown physical properties of the Mars regolith. The effects of thermal convection should be apparent at shallow depths where transient thermal perturbations would be observed to deviate from conductive theory. These calculations were required during proposal review and their probability of predicting a successful measurement a prerequisite for mission approval. However, their uncertainties lies in unmeasured physical parameters of the Mars regolith.     

Using high-energy proton fluence to improve risk prediction for consequences of solar particle events

The potential for exposure to large solar particle events (SPEs) with high energy levels is a major concern during interplanetary transfer and extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) on the lunar and Mars surface. Previously, we have used data from the last 5 solar cycles to estimate percentiles of dose to a typical blood-forming organ (BFO) for a hypothetical astronaut in a nominally shielded spacecraft during a 120-d lunar mission. As part of this process, we made use of complete energy spectra for 34 large historical SPEs to calculate what the BFO mGy-Eq dose would have been in the above lunar scenario for each SPE. From these calculated doses, we then developed a prediction model for BFO dose based solely on an assumed value of integrated fluence above 30 MeV (Φ₃₀) for an otherwise unspecified future SPE. In this study, we reasoned that since BFO dose is determined more by protons with higher energies than by those with lower energies, more accurate BFO dose prediction models could be developed using integrated fluence above 60 (Φ₆₀) and above 100 MeV (Φ₁₀₀) as predictors instead of Φ₃₀. However to calculate the unconditional probability of a BFO dose exceeding a pre-specified limit (“BFO dose risk”), one must also take into account the distribution of the predictor (Φ_30,Φ₆₀, or Φ₁₀₀), as estimated from historical SPEs. But Φ₆₀ and Φ₁₀₀ have more variability, and less available historical information on which to estimate their distributions over many SPE occurrences, than does Φ₃₀. Therefore, when estimating BFO dose risk there is a tradeoff between increased BFO dose prediction at a given energy threshold and decreased accuracy of models for describing the distribution of that threshold over future SPEs as the threshold increases. Even when taking the second of these two factors into account, we still arrived at the conclusion that overall prediction improves as the energy level threshold increases from 30 to 60 to 100 MeV. These results can be applied to the development of approaches to improve radiation protection of astronauts and the optimization of mission planning for future space missions.     

Optimum Number of Stages in a Staged Vehicle

The problem of optimum partitioning of a staged vehicle (SV) and determination of the minimal number of stages to provide for a maximum velocity in the vertical SV motion in a homogeneous gravity field is considered at a given value of payload mass.