Using high-energy proton fluence to improve risk prediction for consequences of solar particle events

The potential for exposure to large solar particle events (SPEs) with high energy levels is a major concern during interplanetary transfer and extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) on the lunar and Mars surface. Previously, we have used data from the last 5 solar cycles to estimate percentiles of dose to a typical blood-forming organ (BFO) for a hypothetical astronaut in a nominally shielded spacecraft during a 120-d lunar mission. As part of this process, we made use of complete energy spectra for 34 large historical SPEs to calculate what the BFO mGy-Eq dose would have been in the above lunar scenario for each SPE. From these calculated doses, we then developed a prediction model for BFO dose based solely on an assumed value of integrated fluence above 30 MeV (Φ₃₀) for an otherwise unspecified future SPE. In this study, we reasoned that since BFO dose is determined more by protons with higher energies than by those with lower energies, more accurate BFO dose prediction models could be developed using integrated fluence above 60 (Φ₆₀) and above 100 MeV (Φ₁₀₀) as predictors instead of Φ₃₀. However to calculate the unconditional probability of a BFO dose exceeding a pre-specified limit (“BFO dose risk”), one must also take into account the distribution of the predictor (Φ_30,Φ₆₀, or Φ₁₀₀), as estimated from historical SPEs. But Φ₆₀ and Φ₁₀₀ have more variability, and less available historical information on which to estimate their distributions over many SPE occurrences, than does Φ₃₀. Therefore, when estimating BFO dose risk there is a tradeoff between increased BFO dose prediction at a given energy threshold and decreased accuracy of models for describing the distribution of that threshold over future SPEs as the threshold increases. Even when taking the second of these two factors into account, we still arrived at the conclusion that overall prediction improves as the energy level threshold increases from 30 to 60 to 100 MeV. These results can be applied to the development of approaches to improve radiation protection of astronauts and the optimization of mission planning for future space missions.     

Electric currents from thunderstorms to the ionosphere during a solar cycle: Quasi-static modeling of the coupling mechanism

Conduction and displacement currents, and their sum the Maxwell current, generated over a thunderstorm (TS) with recurrent lightning discharges are investigated theoretically. The aim is to study better the influence of different factors on these currents, which form the link between thunderstorms and the ionosphere in the global atmospheric electrical circuit. The factors studied concern the thunderstorm characteristics (the charge separation current, and the lightning discharge parameters), as well as the atmospheric and cloud conductivity. Some of these factors may show long-term changes with the 11-year solar cycle, possibly realized through an inverse dependence of the cosmic ray flux on solar activity. Earlier investigations have suggested that the lightning-related charge redistribution and subsequent relaxation, rather than the high intensity current, is mainly the source of the energy coupled to the ionosphere. With respect to this, a quasi-electrostatic analytical model is proposed, based on Maxwell’s equations. The currents are generated by a TS modeled as a positive vertical dipole with charges which are first accumulated and then destroyed by lightning. Our computations show that the mean and peak values of the conduction and total Maxwell currents to the ionosphere depend significantly on the charge moment change. The mean currents are also sensitive to the reduction of the conductivity in thunderclouds. Small variations of the stratospheric conductivity (20% at geomagnetic latitude 40° and 40–50% at 55°) with the solar activity do not influence the currents to the ionosphere very much.     

Analytical approach to cosmic ray ionization by nuclei with charge Z in the middle atmosphere – Distribution of galactic CR effects

The effects of galactic and solar cosmic rays (CR) in the middle atmosphere are considered in this work. A new analytical approach for CR ionization by protons and nuclei with charge Z in the lower ionosphere and middle atmosphere is developed in this paper. For this purpose the ionization losses (dE/dh) according to the Bohr–Bethe–Bloch formula for the energetic charged particles are approximated in three different energy intervals. More accurate expressions for energy decrease E(h) and electron production rate profiles q(h) are derived. The obtained formulas allow comparatively easy computer programming. The integrand in q(h) gives the possibility for application of adequate numerical methods – such as Romberg method or Gauss quadrature, for the solution of the mathematical problem. On this way the process of interaction of cosmic ray particles with the upper, middle and lower atmosphere will be described much more realistically. Computations for cosmic ray ionization in the middle atmosphere are made. The full CR composition is taken into account: protons, Helium (α-particles), light L, medium M, heavy H and very heavy VH group of nuclei.     

Current status of X-ray spectrometer development in the SELENE project

The X-ray spectrometer (XRS) on the SELENE (SELenological and ENgineering Explorer) spacecraft, XRS, will observe fluorescent X-rays from the lunar surface. The energy of the fluorescent X-ray depends on the elements of which the lunar soil consists, therefore we can determine elemental composition of the upper most lunar surface. The XRS consists of three components: XRF-A, SOL-B, and SOL-C. XRF-A is the main sensor to observe X-rays from the lunar surface. SOL-B is direct monitor of Solar X-ray using Si-PIN photodiode. SOL-C is another Solar X-ray monitor but observes the X-rays from the standard sample attached on the base plate. This enables us to analyze by a comparative method similar to typical laboratory XRF methods. XRF-A and SOL-C adopt charge coupled device as an X-ray detector which depletion layer is deep enough to detect X-rays. The X-ray spectra were obtained by the flight model of XRS components, and all components has been worked well to analyze fluorescent X-rays. Currently, development of the hardware and software of the XRS has been finished and we are preparing for system integration test for the launch.     

Development of a plant growth unit for growing plants over a long-term life cycle under microgravity conditions.

To study the effect of the space environment on plant growth including the reproductive growth and genetic aberration for a long-term plant life cycle, we have initiated development of a new type of facility for growing plants under microgravity conditions. The facility is constructed with subsystems for controlling environmental elements. In this paper, the concept of the facility design is outlined. Subsystems controlling air temperature, humidity, CO2 concentration, light and air circulation around plants and delivering recycled water and nutrients to roots are the major concerns. Plant experiments for developing the facility and future plant experiments with the completed facility are also overviewed. We intend to install this facility in the Japan Experiment Facility (JEM) boarded on the International Space Station.     

Classification of solar wind structures and intense geomagnetic storm alarms with self-organizing maps

Intense geomagnetic storms (D_st < −100 nT) usually occur when a large interplanetary duskward-electric field (with Ey > 5 mV m⁻¹) lasts for more than 3 h. In this article, a self-organizing map (SOM) neural network is used to recognize different patterns in the temporal variation of hourly averaged Ey data and to predict intense storms. The input parameters of SOM are the hourly averaged Ey data over 3 h. The output layer of the SOM has a total of 400 neurons. The hourly Ey data are calculated from solar wind data, which are provided by NSSDC OMNIWeb and ACE spacecraft and contain information on 143 intense storms and a fair number of moderate storms, weak storms and quiet periods between September 3, 1966 and June 30, 2002. Our results show that SOM is able to classify solar wind structures and therefore to give timely intense storm alarms. In our SOM, 21 neurons out of 400 are identified to be closely associated with the intense storms and they successfully predict 134 intense storms out of the 143 ones selected. In particular, there are 14 neurons for which, if one or more of them are present, the occurrence probability of intense storms is about 90%. In addition, several of these 14 neurons can predict big magnetic storm (D_st  −180 nT). In summary, our method achieves high accuracy in predicting intense geomagnetic storms and could be applied in space environment prediction.     

Application of velocity filtering to optical-flow passive ranging

The performance of the velocity filtering method as applied to optical-flow passive ranging under real-world conditions is evaluated. The theory of the 3-D Fourier transform as applied to constant-speed moving points is reviewed, and the space-domain shift-and-add algorithm is derived from the general 3-D matched filtering formulation. The constant-speed algorithm is then modified to fit the actual speed encountered in the optical flow application, and the passband of that filter is found in terms of depth (sensor/object distance) so as to cover any given range of depths. Two algorithmic solutions for the problems associated with pixel interpolation and object expansion are developed, and experimental results are presented     

Performance of a centrifugal phytotron.

It is possible to cultivate plants under an artificial gravity field generated by a centrifugal device in space. In order to determine an optimal magnitude of gravity, there is a need to investigate the relationship between plant and growth and gravity, including not only reduced gravity but also gravity greater than 1G. A prototype centrifugal phytotron was designed and fabricated in order to investigate the relationship between plant growth and increased gravity. This device enables us to cultivate plants over the long term by controlling environmental conditions in the phytotron such as temperature, relative humidity, CO2 concentration and light intensity. The results of our experiment indicate that plant seeds can germinate and grow even under an artificial gravity which changes sinusoidally from 2G to 4G.     

A computer network with SCADA and case tools for on-line process control in greenhouses.

Climate control computers in greenhouses are used to control heating and ventilation, supply water and dilute and dispense nutrients. They integrate models into optimally controlled systems. This paper describes how information technology, as in use in other sectors of industry, is applied to greenhouse control. The introduction of modern software and hardware concepts in horticulture adds power and extra oppurtunities to climate contol in greenhouses.