对一起空管责任事故征候的REAEON模型分析

2006年全国民航空管工作会议期间，某空管站发生了一起空管责任事故征候，这是对全体空管人员的一次警示，它从一个侧面映证了基层运行单位的安全管理更应着手于重要却看似不紧急的基础性安全管理建设，而不能仅仅靠阶段性的目标与行政督促来实现“本质安全”，安全管理不能迷恋于那些看似紧急也重要的“安全灭火”或者紧急却不重要的安全会议。这一事件还说明了一个单位或部门的安全管理是有客观评判标准的，当安全管理的水准没入深水区时，掩饰不了的不安全事件就会一次次更响亮地为我们敲响警示钟，该空管站一年内的两起空管责任事故征候和两起工作差错密集发生也从事后提醒我们，更轻微的、标志性的不安全事件也许在几年前就没有被关键的管理层识别和重视。依照系统观的安全管理理念，直接的当事人就如同高层管理牵动的提线木偶，管理的低水准直接影响行为人的操作态度，而等到安全滑坡后，苦果却由单位和部门的一长串人员共同“分享”，每次都是当事和不当事的管制员分得大头。希望新年的第一起空管责任事故征候能成为叫醒的闹铃，短暂的不快之后让我们空管从业人员有一个清醒和积极的2006年。     

Observing the Sun at 20–650 MHz at Thermopylae with Artemis

Fine structure of type IV radio solar bursts with a great variety and complexity often give much information in different ways and enable estimation of various coronal characteristics. In this work, we expose our new method for fine structure revealing and separation of two basic kinds of type IV fine structure, as fibers and pulsations. We also estimate frequency drift of fibers from dynamic spectra, clean from continuous background, with a prototype method using 2-D Fourier transform and we estimate periodicities of fibers as well as pulsations with continuous wavelet transform. Working with the last method we found periodicities close to 3 min umbral oscillations and 5 min global solar oscillations.     

考虑状态与基本变量随机模糊性的广义响应面可靠性分析

针对复杂结构、机构可靠性分析中的隐式极限状态方程,建立了可以同时考虑基本变量和失效一安全状态随机模糊双重不确定性因素的广义响应面可靠性分析方法。该方法采用模糊基本变量的等效随机化变换,在不改变基本变量模糊分布的情况下,建立了基于有限元分析的复杂结构、机构多个随机一模糊基本变量情况下的广义响应面法,利用广义响应面函数和模糊随机事件概率的计算公式,定义了复杂结构、机构广义失效概率的计算公式,并给出了多个模式情况下体系同时考虑状态和基本变量随机模糊性的广义失效概率计算公式。在弹性连杆机构强度刚度多模式广义可靠性分析的应用算例说明了所提方法的合理性。     

Evolution of coronal mass ejection/shock system in interplanetary space

The evolution of coronal mass ejection/shock system is investigated by numerically solving the usual set of two-dimensional single-fluid polytropic magnetohydrodynamic equations from 1 R_s to 1 AU in the meridian plane. The simulation result reveals that the coronal mass ejection/shock system formed near the sun evolves into the magnetic cloud/shock system near the earth’s orbit through the following three phases: the initial formation, the dominant latitudinal expansion and the similar expansion.     

Fusion of distributed extended forgetting factor RLS state estimators

For single-target multisensor systems, two fusion methods are presented for distributed recursive state estimation of dynamic systems without knowledge of noise covariances. The estimator at every local sensor embeds the dynamics and the forgetting factor into the recursive least squares (RLS) method to remedy the lack of knowledge of noise statistics, developed before as the extended forgetting factor recursive least squares (EFRLS) estimator. It is proved that the two fusion methods are equivalent to the centralized EFRLS that uses all measurements from local sensors directly and their good performance is shown by simulation examples.     

GPS based IPS for ERP vehicles

GPS is an innovative technique for an electronic road pricing (ERP) system. By using GPS technology, ERP systems will be extremely efficient and cost-effective. This paper describes the next generation of ERP in Singapore and proposes a GPS based multisensor positioning system for ERP vehicles. Multisensor fusion algorithms are presented for the integration system. The integrated positioning system (IPS) developed in this paper makes it possible to realize GPS based ERP with a simple composition and low cost     

某型飞机蓄压器O型橡胶密封圈失效分析

某型飞机蓄压器在例行耐久循环试验过程中,因进气口端的O型密封圈失效而发生了漏气故障。通过对失效橡胶密封圈形态的宏观观察、断口微观分析及工作过程分析,找出了该橡胶密封圈失效原因,并提出了建议。     

X-ray redshifts with the International X-ray Observatory (IXO)

We explore the capabilities of the future space science mission IXO (International X-ray Observatory) for obtaining cosmological redshifts of distant Active Galactic Nuclei (AGNs) using the X-ray data only. We first find in which regions of the X-ray luminosity (L_X) versus redshift (z) plane the weak but ubiquitous Fe Kα narrow emission line can deliver an accurate redshift (δz < 5%) as a function of exposure time, using a CCD-based Wide Field Imager (IXO/WFI) as the one baselined for IXO. Down to a 2–10 keV X-ray flux of 10⁻¹⁴ erg cm⁻² s⁻¹ IXO/WFI exposures of 100 ks, 300 ks and 1 Ms will deliver 20%, 40% and 60% of the redshifts. This means that in a typical 18′ × 18′ IXO/WFI field of view, 4, 10 and 25 redshifts will be obtained for free from the X-ray data alone, spanning a wide range up to z ∼ 2–3 and fairly sampling the real distribution. Measuring redshifts of fainter sources will indeed need spectroscopy at other wavebands.     

雅江峡谷里飘出的悠远牧歌

如黛的森林包围着绒毯一般的草地，散落其中的牛羊，随处可见的玛尼堆和褪色的五彩经幡……初看雅江，似乎与川西高原的任一处别无二致。然而细细深入，在雅砻江以东的祝桑乡地区，小木窗上绘着美丽图案的石头民居，温软动听的语言，以及悠扬雅致的锅庄……一切都体现出古老神秘的木雅文化所特有的母性亲近感；而以西160多公里的西俄洛乡却处处牧歌豪放，一派典型的康巴画卷。只要你探身而入，雅江的自然与人文之美自会让你沉醉。