Technology readiness and risk assessments: A new approach

Systems that depend upon the application of new technologies inevitably face three major challenges during development: performance, schedule and budget. Technology research and development (R&D) programs are typically advocated based on argument that these investments will substantially reduce the uncertainty in all three of these dimensions of project management. However, if early R&D is implemented poorly, then the new system developments that plan to employ the resulting advanced technologies will suffer from cost overruns, schedule delays and the steady erosion of initial performance objectives. It is often critical for senior management to be able to determine which of these two paths is more likely—and to respond accordingly. The challenge for system and technology managers is to be able to make clear, well-documented assessments of technology readiness and risks, and to do so at key points in the life cycle of the program.Several approaches have been used to evaluate technology maturity and risk in order to better anticipate later system development risks. The “technology readiness levels” (TRLs), developed by NASA, are one discipline-independent, programmatic figure of merit (FOM) that allows more effective assessment of, and communication regarding the maturity of new technologies. Another broadly used management tool is of the “risk matrix”, which depends upon a graphical representation of uncertainty and consequences. However, for the most part these various methodologies have had no explicit interrelationship.This paper will examine past uses of current methods to improve R&D outcomes and will highlight some of the limitations that can arise. In this context, a new concept for the integration of the TRL methodology, and the concept of the “risk matrix” will be described. The paper will conclude with observations concerning prospective future directions for the important new concept of integrated “technology readiness and risk assessments”.     

Technology readiness assessments: A retrospective

The development of new system capabilities typically depends upon the prior success of advanced technology research and development efforts. These systems developments inevitably face the three major challenges of any project: performance, schedule and budget. Done well, advanced technology programs can substantially reduce the uncertainty in all three of these dimensions of project management. Done poorly, or not at all, and new system developments suffer from cost overruns, schedule delays and the steady erosion of initial performance objectives. It is often critical for senior management to be able to determine which of these two paths is more likely—and to respond accordingly. The challenge for system and technology managers is to be able to make clear, well-documented assessments of technology readiness and risks, and to do so at key points in the life cycle of the program.In the mid 1970s, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) introduced the concept of “technology readiness levels” (TRLs) as a discipline-independent, programmatic figure of merit (FOM) to allow more effective assessment of, and communication regarding the maturity of new technologies. In 1995, the TRL scale was further strengthened by the articulation of the first definitions of each level, along with examples (J. Mankins, Technology readiness levels, A White Paper, NASA, Washington, DC, 1995. [1]). Since then, TRLs have been embraced by the U.S. Congress’ General Accountability Office (GAO), adopted by the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD), and are being considered for use by numerous other organizations. Overall, the TRLs have proved to be highly effective in communicating the status of new technologies among sometimes diverse organizations.This paper will review the concept of “technology readiness assessments”, and provide a retrospective on the history of “TRLs” during the past 30 years. The paper will conclude with observations concerning prospective future directions for the important discipline of technology readiness assessments.     

Autonomic function testing aboard the ISS using “PNEUMOCARD”

Investigations of blood pressure, heart rate (HR), and heart rate variability (HRV) during long term space flights on board the “ISS” have shown characteristic changes of autonomic cardiovascular control. Therefore, alterations of the autonomic nervous system occurring during spaceflight may be responsible for in- and post-flight disturbances. The device “Pneumocard” was developed to further investigate autonomic cardiovascular and respiratory function aboard the ISS. The hard-software diagnostic complex “Pneumocard” was used during in-flight experiment aboard ISS for autonomic function testing. ECG, photoplethysmography, respiration, transthoracic bioimpedance and seismocardiography were assessed in one male cosmonaut (flight lengths six month). Recordings were made prior to the flight, late during flight, and post-flight during spontaneous respiration and controlled respiration at different rates.HR remained stable during flight. The values were comparable to supine measurements on earth. Respiratory frequency and blood pressure decreased during flight. Post flight HR and BP values increased compared to in-flight data exceeding pre-flight values. Cardiac time intervals did not change dramatically during flight. Pulse wave transit time decreased during flight. The maximum of the first time derivative of the impedance cardiogram, which is highly correlated with stroke volume was not reduced in-flight.Our results demonstrate that autonomic function testing aboard the ISS using “Pneumocard” is feasible and generates data of good quality. Despite the decrease in BP, pulse wave transit time was found reduced in space as shown earlier. However, cardiac output did not decrease profoundly in the investigated cosmonaut.Autonomic testing during space flight detects individual changes in cardiovascular control and may add important information to standard medical control. The recent plans to support a flight to Mars, makes these kinds of observations all the more relevant and compelling.     

Long-term variations of fluxes of solar protons and helium isotopes

The fluxes of hydrogen and helium isotopes in the solar wind are reconstructed over a long time scale since the present time up to 600 million years back. Abundances of helium isotopes, obtained in the helium isotopic analysis made for 8 lunar soil samples, were used as initial data in the reconstruction procedure. Samples were taken off from various levels of the 1.6-m core of lunar soil delivered by the automatic Luna-24 station in 1976. The data on modern hydrogen and helium fluxes were used as well. The developed reconstruction procedure allowed one to select various solar wind components in a ??gross?? composition. Proton flux variations over the interval of 600 million years do not exceed a value of 40 %. Helium flux variations reach a value of 1.5?C2 relative to the average value. Most likely, this circumstance is caused by considerable variations of a number of coronal mass ejections (CME) enriched by helium. The arguments in favor of solar activity polycyclicity on a long time scale are discussed.     

Program goals for the NASA/NOAA Earth Observation Program derived from a stakeholder value network analysis

The 2007 US National Research Council Decadal Survey for Earth Science and Applications from Space was the first consensus perspective produced by the US Earth Science community of the relative priorities among a sequence of 17 satellite missions over the course of the next decade. However, the Decadal Survey only captured the perspective of the science community, leading to questions about the inclusion of broader priorities from constituent communities and stakeholders. We present a stakeholder value network analysis for the NASA/NOAA Earth Observation Program. The analysis includes a rigorous articulation of the needs and objectives of 13 major stakeholders and a complete stakeholder value network with 190 individual “value flows” that capture the interactions between all the stakeholders. It produces a novel stakeholder map, graphically indicating the outputs most likely to create a lasting Earth Science program. The most important value loops and program outputs are used to derive a set of high-level program goals that suggest what NASA and NOAA should do, as well as how they should conduct business. The analysis concludes that international partnerships represent a strong potential partner for certain science missions with greater potential value delivery than currently-prioritized efforts with defense stakeholders and concludes that weather and land-use missions, in addition to climate missions, should be given highest priority; water, human health, and solid Earth missions should be given lower priority based on each science category's potential for delivering value to the entire stakeholder network.     

Ballistics, navigation, and motion control for a spacecraft during its landing on the surface of Phobos

Basic concepts and algorithms laid as foundations of the scheme of landing on the Martian moon Phobos (developed for the Phobos-Grunt project) are presented. The conditions ensuring the landing are discussed. Algorithms of onboard navigation and control are described. The equations of spacecraft motion with respect to Phobos are considered, as well as their use for correction of the spacecraft motion. The algorithm of estimation of the spacecraft’s state vector using measurements with a laser altimeter and Doppler meter of velocity and distance is presented. A system for modeling the landing with a firmware complex including a prototype of the onboard computer is described.     

Ares I–X Flight Test Vehicle similitude to the Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle

The Ares I–X Flight Test Vehicle is the first in a series of flight test vehicles that will take the Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle design from development to operational capability. Ares I–X is scheduled for a 2009 flight date, early enough in the Ares I design and development process so that data obtained from the flight can impact the design of Ares I before its Critical Design Review. Decisions on Ares I–X scope, flight test objectives, and FTV fidelity were made prior to the Ares I systems requirements being baselined. This was necessary in order to achieve a development flight test to impact the Ares I design. Differences between the Ares I–X and the Ares I configurations are artifacts of formulating this experimental project at an early stage and the natural maturation of the Ares I design process. This paper describes the similarities and differences between the Ares I–X Flight Test Vehicle and the Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle. Areas of comparison include the outer mold line geometry, aerosciences, trajectory, structural modes, flight control architecture, separation sequence, and relevant element differences. Most of the outer mold line differences present between Ares I and Ares I–X are minor and will not have a significant effect on overall vehicle performance. The most significant impacts are related to the geometric differences in Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle at the forward end of the stack. These physical differences will cause differences in the flow physics in these areas. Even with these differences, the Ares I–X flight test is poised to meet all five primary objectives and six secondary objectives. Knowledge of what the Ares I–X flight test will provide in similitude to Ares I—as well as what the test will not provide—is important in the continued execution of the Ares I–X mission leading to its flight and the continued design and development of Ares I.     

Species and temperature exchange in the atmosphere of “BION-M” spacecraft

On going flights of Foton satellites allow to carry out research in the following domains: effect of space flight and outer space factors such as microgravity, artificial gravity and space radiation on physical processes and biological organisms. Experts from many Russian and foreign scientific institutions participated in the research. Over a period of time from 1973 to 1997 there were launched 11 BION satellites designed by the Central Specialized Design Bureau for carrying out fundamental and applied research in the field of space biology, medicine, radio physics and radiobiology with participation of specialists from the foreign countries.The goal of the present investigation was in developing a numerical simulator aimed at determining gas concentration and temperature fields established inside the scientific module of the spacecraft “Bion-M” and to perform optimization studies, which could meet strong requirements for air quality and temperature range allowable for operation of different biological experiments.     

The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Miniature Radio Frequency (Mini-RF) Technology Demonstration

The Miniature Radio Frequency (Mini-RF) system is manifested on the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) as a technology demonstration and an extended mission science instrument. Mini-RF represents a significant step forward in spaceborne RF technology and architecture. It combines synthetic aperture radar (SAR) at two wavelengths (S-band and X-band) and two resolutions (150 m and 30 m) with interferometric and communications functionality in one lightweight (16 kg) package. Previous radar observations (Earth-based, and one bistatic data set from Clementine) of the permanently shadowed regions of the lunar poles seem to indicate areas of high circular polarization ratio (CPR) consistent with volume scattering from volatile deposits (e.g. water ice) buried at shallow (0.1–1 m) depth, but only at unfavorable viewing geometries, and with inconclusive results. The LRO Mini-RF utilizes new wideband hybrid polarization architecture to measure the Stokes parameters of the reflected signal. These data will help to differentiate “true” volumetric ice reflections from “false” returns due to angular surface regolith. Additional lunar science investigations (e.g. pyroclastic deposit characterization) will also be attempted during the LRO extended mission. LRO’s lunar operations will be contemporaneous with India’s Chandrayaan-1, which carries the Forerunner Mini-SAR (S-band wavelength and 150-m resolution), and bistatic radar (S-Band) measurements may be possible. On orbit calibration, procedures for LRO Mini-RF have been validated using Chandrayaan 1 and ground-based facilities (Arecibo and Greenbank Radio Observatories).     

An innovative approach for distributed and integrated resources planning for the Space Station Freedom

The widely distributed nature of the Space Station Freedom program, plus continuous multi-year operations will force program planners to develop innovative planning concepts. The traditional centralized planning operation will not be adequate. It will be replaced by multiple small planning centers working within guidelines issued by a central planning authority. Plans will not be optimized; rather, operating efficiency and user flexibility will be blended to satisfy program goals. The key to this new approach is the application of new planning methodologies and system development technologies to accommodate distributed resources that must be integrated. Resources will be distributed to the multiple planning entities in such a way that, when the several plans are built and then integrated, they will fit together with minimal modification. The plan itself will be an envelope schedule containing resource limits and constraint boundaries within which users will be free to make choices of the specific activities they will execute, up to the time of execution. Some level of margin within program guidelines will be built in to allow for variation and unforeseen change. This paper presents the authors' recommended planning approach and cites two NASA systems being developed that will utilize these resource distribution/integration planning concepts, methodologies and development technologies.