An attempt to study long-term variation of sporadic E layers using neural networks

Strong positive correlation between sporadic E layers and the solar activity and the long-term declining trend of Es were found in this paper. Then the feed-forward back propagation neural networks (NNs) were used to simulate the long-term variation of Es at four stations and predict foEs yearly average values. The inputs used for NNs are the yearly mean values of foEs in the daytime of the past ten years and the yearly averaged data of solar 10.7 cm radio flux (F107) of the present year, and the output is the present yearly mean value of daytime foEs. The outputs of trained NNs have high correlation with the desired values and the foEs yearly mean values predicted by NNs have good agreement with the observed data. The results indicate that NNs can make full use of the observed data to simulate the long variation rule of Es. Also, the results confirm the effect of solar activity on Es.     

基于效用价值驱动的旅客出行动力学研究与建模

为了探究交通体系中旅客出行行为的特征与机理,以某机场离港旅客的陆侧出行数据为研究对象,对旅客出行模式进行了统计。分析发现,旅客聚集行为具有强烈的阵发性,不同出行维度旅客群体的聚集时间间隔分布具有幂律特征,且幂指数和阵发性强度呈正相关关系。同时,研究认为旅客出行换乘决策是综合时间、费用、便捷舒适度、突发情况等多因素的期望实现,是一种基于效用价值驱动的人类行为。基于此构建了效用价值驱动模式下的旅客出行行为动力学模型,可输出幂指数为参数可调的幂律分布,且仿真输出和实证数据分析结果相吻合。      

A method of estimating GPS instrumental biases with a convolution algorithm

This paper presents a method of deriving the instrumental differential code biases (DCBs) of GPS satellites and dual frequency receivers. Considering that the total electron content (TEC) varies smoothly over a small area, one ionospheric pierce point (IPP) and four more nearby IPPs were selected to build an equation with a convolution algorithm. In addition, unknown DCB parameters were arranged into a set of equations with GPS observations in a day unit by assuming that DCBs do not vary within a day. Then, the DCBs of satellites and receivers were determined by solving the equation set with the least-squares fitting technique. The performance of this method is examined by applying it to 361?days in 2014 using the observation data from 1311 GPS Earth Observation Network (GEONET) receivers. The result was crosswise-compared with the DCB estimated by the mesh method and the IONEX products from the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE). The DCB values derived by this method agree with those of the mesh method and the CODE products, with biases of 0.091?ns and 0.321?ns, respectively. The convolution method's accuracy and stability were quite good and showed improvements over the mesh method.     

ARMAX模型参数估计的新两步法

 本文提出了一种ARMAX模型参数估计的新两步法。这种方法与其它递推估计方法（如增广矩阵法,极大似然法,Durbin两步法、三步法等）比较,具有较好的收敛特性,对参数的估计,特别是对C参数的估计比较精确,这是利用其它方法,一直未能很好解决的一个难题。     

利用高空科学气球收集宇宙尘粒

本文叙述了高空科学气球上一种自行研制的宇宙尘收集器以及气球吊篮系统。利用该系统进行了五次高空字宙尘粒的收集飞行,简述了对所收集的尘粒进行系统研究的结果。     

不同类型观测数据的方差分量估计

根据有关的平差理论,对不同类型观测数据的间接平差模型和条件半差模型进行了方差分量估计公式的推导。     

某型涡喷发动机使用寿命的评定方法

给出了可修系统使用寿命的定义, 根据涡喷发动机的试车数据, 提出了应用ＡＭ－ＳＡＡ－ＢＩＳＥ模型评定使用寿命的步骤与方法, 并用数值例说明了这些方法。     

Performability analysis of avionics system with multilayer HM/FM using stochastic Petri nets

The integrated modular avionics (IMA) architecture is an open standard in avionics industry, in which the number of functionalities implemented by software is greater than ever before. In the IMA architecture, the reliability of the avionics system is highly affected by the software applications. In order to enhance the fault tolerance feature with regard to software application failures, many industrial standards propose a layered health monitoring/fault management (HM/FM) scheme to periodically check the health status of software application processes and recover the malfunctioning software process whenever an error is located. In this paper, we make an analytical study of the HM/FM system for avionics application software. We use the stochastic Petri nets (SPN) to build a formal model of each component and present a method to combine the components together to form a complete system model with respect to three interlayer query strategies. We further investigate the effectiveness of these strategies in an illustrative system.     

原位生长铝基复合材料的工艺研究

以金属氧化物粉末和铝进行置换反应原理为基础,对挤压铸造法,超声振动反应法制备原位生长的铝基复合材料的工艺进行了探索。光学金相观察和Ｘ射线衍射分析表明：挤压铸造过程中,金属氧化物与铝几乎未发生反应,挤压扣的复合材料经进一步热处理后,反应进行完全,得到Ａｌ２Ｏ３／Ａｌ复合材料;热处理后,复合材料的显微硬度值有明显的改变;     

层合板螺栓连接结构疲劳寿命预测

为了准确预测复合材料连接结构损伤的产生和扩展,基于单向板疲劳性能预测层合板螺栓连接结构疲劳寿命。用T300/BMP-316单向板试验数据对正则化疲劳寿命与剩余强度的参数进行拟合;在复合材料基体主控失效判据基础上增加纤维失效和分层失效判据,改进基于断裂韧性的失效准则判定损伤的产生和扩展;采用二级载荷疲劳寿命等效实现损伤的非线性累积,再对相应的损伤进行材料性能退化。预测结果与试验对比表明:对不同几何参数层合板连接结构的对数寿命预测与试验误差在5%以内,对不同应力水平下层合板连接结构的对数寿命预测与试验误差在10%以内,最终破坏模式及损伤区域的预测与试验结果吻合良好。