Can Surface Flux Transport Account for the Weak Polar Field in Cycle 23?

To reproduce the weak magnetic field on the polar caps of the Sun observed during the declining phase of cycle 23 poses a challenge to surface flux transport models since this cycle has not been particularly weak. We use a well-calibrated model to evaluate the parameter changes required to obtain simulated polar fields and open flux that are consistent with the observations. We find that the low polar field of cycle 23 could be reproduced by an increase of the meridional flow by 55% in the last cycle. Alternatively, a decrease of the mean tilt angle of sunspot groups by 28% would also lead to a similarly low polar field, but cause a delay of the polar field reversals by 1.5 years in comparison to the observations.     

Variations in statistical parameters of the NmF2 equinoctial asymmetry with latitude and solar activity near noon

Hourly values of the F2-layer peak density, NmF2, measured by 95 ionosondes near noon from 1957 to 2011 at low and middle geomagnetic latitudes of the northern and southern geographic hemispheres are used in a statistical study of the NmF2 equinoctial asymmetry. The ratios, R, of NmF2 measured during 61 days around the March equinox to NmF2 measured during 61 days around the September equinox at the same UT near noon during geomagnetically quiet daytime conditions for approximately the same solar activity conditions over the same ionosonde are analyzed. The conditional probability of the occurrence of R in an interval of R, the most probable value of R, and the mean expected value of R are calculated for the first time for the low, moderate, and high solar activity levels to study variations in these statistical parameters with latitude and solar activity. These statistical parameters are averaged over 5° geomagnetic latitude interval in the northern and southern geographic hemispheres to calculate and to study for the first time trends in latitude and solar activity of these averaged NmF2 equinoctial asymmetry statistical characteristics.     

Local-time variations of geomagnetic disturbances during intense geomagnetic storms and possible association with their interplanetary causes

In the present paper the local-time variations in the disturbance of the geomagnetic-field horizontal component (H) for eight intense geomagnetic storms that occurred during the descending phase of solar cycle 23 have been analyzed. The study was based on the plot of contour lines of the H-depletion intensity in the plane local time versus universal time (LT–UT maps) with the objective of observing how the morphology and evolution of the ring current is mapped into the surface of the Earth in presence of intense geomagnetic storms.     

Vertical motions in Thailand after the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman Earthquake from GPS observations and its geophysical modelling

Following previous findings from ongoing GPS research in Thailand since 2004 we continue to exploit the GPS technique to monitor and model land motions induced by the Sumatra–Andaman Earthquake. Our latest results show that up to the end of 2010, Thailand has been co-seismically displaced and is subsequently undergoing a post-seismic horizontal deformation with total displacements (co-seismic plus post-seismic) ranging from 10.5 to 74.7 cm. We observed the largest horizontal displacements in the southern part of Thailand and moderate and small displacements in the central and northern parts. In addition to horizontal displacements throughout Thailand, continuous GPS measurements show that large parts of Thailand are subsiding at rates up to 1 cm/yr. It is the first time that such vertical post-seismic deformations at large distances (650–1500 km away from the Earthquake’s epicentre) have been recorded. We have investigated the physical processes leading to the observed subsidence. While after-slip on the subduction interface induces negligible or even slightly positive vertical motions, relaxation in the asthenosphere is associated with a sizable subsidence. Predictions from a 3D finite element model feature an asthenosphere with an effective viscosity of the order of 3 * 10¹⁸ Pas, fit the horizontal post-seismic data and the observed subsidence well. This model is then used to predict the subsidence over the whole seismic cycle. The subsidence should go on with a diminishing rate through the next two decades and its final magnitude should not exceed 10 cm in the Bangkok area.     

Improved predictions of equatorial TEC for real time applications

It is important to use models developed specifically for the equatorial ionospheric estimation for real-time applications, particularly in Satellite Navigation. This work demonstrates a methodology for improved predictions of VTEC in real time using the model developed for the equatorial ionosphere by the authors. This work has been done using TEC data of the low solar activity period of 2005 obtained using dual frequency GPS receivers installed under the GAGAN project of ISRO. For the purpose, the model is first used in conjunction with Kriging technique. Improvement in accuracy is observed when compared with the estimations from the model alone using the measurements as true reference. Further improvement is obtained by Bayesian combination of these estimates with independent Neural Network based predictions. Statistical performance of improvement is provided. An improvement of ∼1 m in confidence level of estimation of VTEC is obtained.     

Security applications of computer vision

In an age which bears witness to a proliferation of Closed Circuit Television (CCTV) cameras for security and surveillance monitoring, the use of image processing and computer vision techniques which were provided as top end bespoke solutions can now be realised using desktop PC processing. Commercial Video Motion Detection (VMD) and Intelligent Scene Monitoring (ISM) systems are becoming increasingly sophisticated, aided, in no small way, by a technology transfer from previously exclusively military research sectors. Image processing is traditionally concerned with pre-processing operations such as Fourier filtering, edge detection and morphological operations. Computer vision extends the image processing paradigm to include understanding of scene content, tracking and object classification. Examples of computer vision applications include Automatic Number Plate Recognition (ANPR), people and vehicle tracking, crowd analysis and model based vision. Often image processing and computer vision techniques are developed with highly specific applications in mind and the goal of a more global understanding computer vision system remains, at least for now, outside the bounds of present technology. This paper will review some of the most recent developments in computer vision and image processing for challenging outdoor perimeter security applications. It also describes the efforts of development teams to integrate some of these advanced ideas into coherent prototype development systems     

On the convergence of iterative methods for bearings-only tracking

This paper deals with the analysis of the convergence of iterative methods for bearings only tracking (BOT). A geometric and unified framework is developed. Explicit sufficient conditions ensuring convergence of iterative methods for maximization of the likelihood functional are then derived     

On the Isotopic Composition of Primordial Xenon in Terrestrial Planet Atmospheres

Xenon plays a crucial role in models of atmospheric evolution in which noble gases are fractionated from their initial compositions to isotopically heavier distributions by early hydrodynamic escape of primordial planetary atmospheres. With the assumption that nonradiogenic Xe isotope ratios in present-day atmospheres were generated in this way, backward modeling from these ratios through the fractionating process can in principle identify likely parental Xe compositions and thus the probable sources of noble gases in pre-escape atmospheres. Applied to Earth, this approach simultaneously establishes the presence of an atmospheric Xe component due principally to fission of extinct ²⁴⁴Pu and identifies a composition called U-Xe as primordial Xe. Pu-Xe comprises 4.65±0.30% of atmospheric ¹³⁶Xe, and 6.8±0.5% of the present abundance of ¹²⁹Xe derives from decay of extinct ¹²⁹I. U-Xe is identical to the measured composition of solar-wind Xe except for deficits of the two heaviest isotopes – an unexpected difference since the modeling otherwise points to solar wind compositions for the lighter noble gases in the primordial terrestrial atmosphere. Evidence for the presence of U-Xe is not restricted to the early Earth; modeling based on a purely meteoritic data set defines a parental component in chondrites and achondrites with the same isotopic distribution. Results of experimental efforts to measure this composition directly in meteorites are promising but not yet conclusive. U-Xe also appears as a possible base component in interstellar silicon carbide, here with superimposed excesses of ¹³⁴Xe and ¹³⁶Xe six-fold larger than those in the solar wind. These compositional differences imply mixing of U-Xe with a nucleogenetic heavy-isotope component whose relative abundance in the solar accretion disk and in pre-solar environments varied both spatially and temporally. In contrast to Earth, the U-Xe signature on Mars was apparently overwhelmed by local accretion of materials rich in either chondritic Xe or solar-wind Xe. Data currently in hand from SNC meteorites on the composition of the present atmosphere are insufficiently precise to constrain a modeling choice between these two candidates for primordial martian Xe. They likewise do not permit definitive resolution of a ²⁴⁴Pu component in the atmosphere although its presence is allowed within current measurement uncertainties. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.