Uncertainties in estimates of the risks of late effects from space radiation.

Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Using the linear-additivity model for radiation risks, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain an estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including a deep space outpost and Mars missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, e.g., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well-defined confidence limits.     

Checkout: A Changing Technology

On-board/in-flight checkout of future aerospace systems will necessitate a fundamental departure from today's design and checkout activities. The interrelationship of checkout, incorporated into prime vehicular functions, man as a subsystem, and standardization Of hardware/software must be considered as a functional and integral entity if the efforts of today's long-range planning are to become tomorrow's reality. This paper will describe future systems checkout, maintenance and support considerations, and actions and tentative measures necessary for implementation. The realization of the implementation of these concepts into functional elements will depend, accurately and economically, upon the degree of government perceptiveness and the extent of industrial support.     

The effect of realistic surface properties on low temperature space observatories

We highlight the effect on space-telescope temperatures of thedirectionality of the radiative properties of materials, by showing results from a Monte-Carlo simulation of telescope cooling. The need for further measurements of directional properties is stressed.     

Planetary Accumulation with a Continuous Supply of Planetesimals

Previous calculations of the accumulation of small (∼10 km) planetesimals at ∼1 AU to form Mars-sized bodies assumed that the initial assemblage of planetesimals were all present at the outset. This is an obviously reasonable assumption in systems in which the time scale for growth time of ∼10²⁶ g planetary bodies is long compared to estimates of the evolutionary time scale of a protosolar disk, as was the case in the pioneering work of Safronov (1969). It is now found that as a result of the preplanetary assemblage being unstable with respect to the runaway growth of the largest bodies, this is unlikely to be the case. The more realistic alternative of adding the initial planetesimals on a ∼10⁵ year time scale is considered here, as well as the consequences of the initial planetesimals being considerably smaller than those assumed previously. It is found that although the time scale for runaway growth is now actually controlled by the availability of planetesimals, for planetesimal production time scales of ∼10⁵ yrs, the final consequences are very similar. These calculations do show, however, that as a consequence of continuous infall during the runaway growth process, the late initial planetesimals are likely to be catastrophically disrupted by mutual collisions. For this reason, a more detailed treatment of the growth of planetesimals into planetary embryos will require a better understanding of the difficult problem of formation of the initial planetesimals themselves. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Testing the Stability of the Fine Structure Constant in the Laboratory

In this review we discuss the progress of the past decade in testing for a possible temporal variation of the fine structure constant α. Advances in atomic sample preparation, laser spectroscopy and optical frequency measurements led to rapid reduction of measurement uncertainties. Eventually laboratory tests became the most sensitive tool to detect a possible variation of α at the present epoch. We explain the methods and technologies that helped to make this possible.