Forecasting the 23 and 24 solar cycles on the basis of MGM spectrum

A new method of nonlinear spectral analysis (called the method of global minimum: MGM), based on the best presentation (in sense of minimal squares) of a given time data set as a sum of sinusoids whose frequencies, amplitudes and phases are to be determined, has been used to find periodicities in annual Wolf sunspot numbers (W) during the period 1700–1995. The possible future behaviour of the 11-year solar cycle (based on an extrapolation of the calculated model) is also presented. The main characteristics of the 23^rd solar cycle are as follows: the W maximum occurs about 2004, with a peak of nearly 220. An unusually large value of W will occur during the 23^rd cycle, which should be characterised by the longest maximum, specifically, W will be greater than 100 during the 11-year period from 1997 to 2007. The first sharp rise will occur during the period 1996–1998, the second sharp during 2002–2004. The main features of the 24 year cycle are as follows: the next minimum in W, associated with the 24^th solar cycle, should occur in the year 2008 and the maximum in 2014. W is expected to peak at about 180. The minimum value for the 25^th year cycle is expected to occur in the year 2019. It is shown that the accuracy of these predictions depends, first of all, on the extrapolation of the hyperlong harmonic of the calculated polyharmonic model fit of observed annual sunspot numbers during the period 1700–1995. The error bars in the definition of the maximum and minimum epochs can be as large as two years.     

Large lithium ion batteries for aerospace and aircraft applications

Eagle-Picher Energy Products (EPEP) has been manufacturing and testing large lithium ion cells (up to 100-Ah) for several years. Recently, work has focused on the testing of different chemistries at variable temperatures and designing and fabricating 100-Ah cylindrical cells. For the aircraft application the largest concern is irreversible capacity loss at elevated temperatures (70°C). In contrast, for the aerospace application shelf-life and cycle life are critical. EPEP has found that the major contributor to the loss in low temperature performance due to high temperature testing, was the positive electrode. EPEP discuss recent results of variable temperature cycling and 100-Ah cell performance     

Observer-type Kalman innovation filter for uncertain linear systems

An observer-type of Kalman innovation filtering algorithm to find a practically implementable "best" Kalman filter, and such an algorithm based on the evolutionary programming (EP) optima-search technique, are proposed, for linear discrete-time systems with time-invariant unknown-but-hounded plant and noise uncertainties. The worst-case parameter set from the stochastic uncertain system represented by the interval form with respect to the implemented "best" filter is also found in this work for demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed filtering scheme. The new EP-based algorithm utilizes the global optima-searching capability of EP to find the optimal Kalman filter and state estimates at every iteration, which include both the best possible worst case Interval and the optimal nominal trajectory of the Kalman filtering estimates of the system state vectors. Simulation results are included to show that the new algorithm yields more accurate estimates and is less conservative as compared with other related robust filtering schemes     

High Dynamic GPS Receiver Using Maximum Likelihood Estimationand Frequency Tracking

A new high dynamic global positioning system (GPS) receiver ispresented and its performance characterized by analysis,simulation, and demonstration. The demonstration receiver is abreadboard model capable of tracking a single simulated satellitesignal in pseudorange and range rate. Pseudorange and range rateestimates are made once every 20 ms, using a maximum likelihoodestimator, and are tracked by means of a third-order fadingmemory filter in a feedback configuration. The receiver trackspseudorange with rms errors of under 1 m when subjected tosimulated 50 g, 40 g/s circular trajectories. The tracking thresholdis approximately 28 dB·Hz, which provides 12 dB margin relativethe the minimum specified signal strength, assuming 3.5 dB systemnoise figure and 0 dB antenna gain.     

A bioreactor system for the nitrogen loop in a Controlled Ecological Life Support System.

As space missions become longer in duration, the need to recycle waste into useful compounds rises dramatically. This problem can be addressed by the development of Controlled Ecological Life Support Systems (CELSS) (i.e., Engineered Closed/Controlled Eco-Systems (ECCES)), consisting of human and plant modules. One of the waste streams leaving the human module is urine. In addition to the reclamation of water from urine, recovery of the nitrogen is important because it is an essential nutrient for the plant module. A 3-step biological process for the recycling of nitrogenous waste (urea) is proposed. A packed-bed bioreactor system for this purpose was modeled, and the issues of reaction step segregation, reactor type and volume, support particle size, and pressure drop were addressed. Based on minimization of volume, a bioreactor system consisting of a plug flow immobilized urease reactor, a completely mixed flow immobilized cell reactor to convert ammonia to nitrite, and a plug flow immobilized cell reactor to produce nitrate from nitrite is recommended. It is apparent that this 3-step bioprocess meets the requirements for space applications.     

Dose equivalent, absorbed dose and charge spectrum investigation in low Earth orbit.

Particle intensity, dose equivalent and absorbed dose have been measured on board the space shuttle Endeavour during STS-108 in December 2001 by Dublin Institute for Advanced Studies (DIAS). The dose estimates are based on very accurate measurements of recoils produced in CR-39 by cosmic ray primary and secondary protons and heavier nuclei and by secondary neutrons. The corresponding LET spectra were used to determine dose equivalent and absorbed dose values. Estimates of the total flux of Z > or = 2 nuclei have been undertaken and a preliminary charge spectrum was measured. Some comparisons are made with preliminary data obtained on STS-105 (ISS Expedition) and other missions using CR-39 detectors.     

New instrumentation for optical measuring of oxygen in gas or dissolved in liquids.

The optical oxygen sensor is a novel device for the determination of oxygen in gases or dissolved in liquids. It is based on the measurement principle of fluorescence quenching, which is completely different from that of polarographic oxygen sensors (today the most widespread devices of oxygen detection). The new instrument offers features and advantages, which render it not only a realistic alternative, but, for specific applications, make it superior to existing electrochemical methods. The system is based on low-cost semiconductor devices (light-emitting diodes, photodiodes, low-cost analogue and digital components) and new LED-compatible oxygen-sensitive membranes. The flow cell of the instrument may be thermostatted and the sensor can be calibrated by a simple two-point calibration procedure. The optical oxygen sensor is particularly suitable for measuring dissolved oxygen in respirometry, since no oxygen is consumed by the device and the signal is independent of sample flowrate or stirring speed. Typical fields of application are monitoring of oxygen in ground and drinking water, in process control in bioreactors and in breath gas and blood gas analysis.     

Injuries to plants from controlled environment contaminants.

The use of controlled environments is subject to problems from contaminants emitted from materials of the system and from plants. Many contaminants are difficult to identify because injurious dosages are very low, there is a lack of information on what compounds injure plants, because species and cultivars differ greatly in their sensitivity to injury and injury symptoms often are not distinctive. Plastics have been shown to emit many different volatile compounds. The compound, di-butyl phthalate, contained in certain flexible plastics, has been shown to be very toxic to plants. Other injuries have been produced by caulking compounds and bonded screening. Paints have been shown to release xylene that is toxic to plants. Steam for humidification can cause problems because of hydroxylamines and other compounds added to steam used for heating to control fungal growth in return lines. Mercury, from broken thermometers is a particular problem in growth chambers because small quantities can collect in cracks and slowly volatilize to slow growth of plants. Plants themselves release large quantities of volatile hydrocarbons, with ethylene being the commonly recognized chemical that can be damaging when allowed to accumulate. People release large quantities of carbon dioxide which can cause variations in the rate of growth of plants. Contaminant problems can be controlled through filtering of the air or ventilation with make-up air, however the potential for problems is always present and careful testing should be undertaken with the particular species and cultivars being grown insure that there are no toxic agents altering growth in each particular controlled environment being utilized.     

Use of combined light flash and plasma measurements to study hypervelocity impact processes

We present new measurements concerning generation of light flash during hypervelocity impacts. We use iron particles (10⁻¹³ to 10⁻¹⁷ kg) with velocities over the range 1 to 42 km/s impacting semi-infinite targets (aluminium and molybdenum). The main results of previous work in the field are found to be reproduced with some slight deviations. For iron projectiles with given mass and velocity the energy of the flash (normalized to mass) is proportional to velocity to the power of 3.5 for aluminium targets and 3.9 for molybdenum targets. The duration of the flash is of order 1 microsecond. Simultaneous measurements of the generation of impact plasma do not change this. The onset of plasma generation of the bulk target material does not affect the total light flash energy. We discuss the duration of the flash compared to a simple calculation of temperature in the target and plasma vs time.