Characterization of Kalman filter residuals in the presence ofmismodeling

The mean and covariance of a Kalman filter residual are computed for specific cases in which the Kalman filter model differs from a linear model that accurately represents the true system (the truth model). Multiple model adaptive estimation (MMAE) uses a bank of Kalman filters, each with a different internal model, and a hypothesis testing algorithm that uses the residuals from this bank of Kalman filters to estimate the true system model. At most, only one Kalman filter model will exactly match the truth model and will produce a residual whose mean and standard deviation have already been analyzed. All of the other filters use internal models that mismodel the true system. We compute the effects of a mismodeled input matrix, output matrix, and state transition matrix on these residuals. The computed mean and covariance are compared with simulation results of flight control failures that correspond to mismodeled input matrices and output matrices     

Grain Surface Models and Data for Astrochemistry

The cross-disciplinary field of astrochemistry exists to understand the formation, destruction, and survival of molecules in astrophysical environments. Molecules in space are synthesized via a large variety of gas-phase reactions, and reactions on dust-grain surfaces, where the surface acts as a catalyst. A broad consensus has been reached in the astrochemistry community on how to suitably treat gas-phase processes in models, and also on how to present the necessary reaction data in databases; however, no such consensus has yet been reached for grain-surface processes. A team of \({\sim}25\) experts covering observational, laboratory and theoretical (astro)chemistry met in summer of 2014 at the Lorentz Center in Leiden with the aim to provide solutions for this problem and to review the current state-of-the-art of grain surface models, both in terms of technical implementation into models as well as the most up-to-date information available from experiments and chemical computations. This review builds on the results of this workshop and gives an outlook for future directions.     

The Juno Waves Investigation

Jupiter is the source of the strongest planetary radio emissions in the solar system. Variations in these emissions are symptomatic of the dynamics of Jupiter’s magnetosphere and some have been directly associated with Jupiter’s auroras. The strongest radio emissions are associated with Io’s interaction with Jupiter’s magnetic field. In addition, plasma waves are thought to play important roles in the acceleration of energetic particles in the magnetosphere, some of which impact Jupiter’s upper atmosphere generating the auroras. Since the exploration of Jupiter’s polar magnetosphere is a major objective of the Juno mission, it is appropriate that a radio and plasma wave investigation is included in Juno’s payload. This paper describes the Waves instrument and the science it is to pursue as part of the Juno mission.     

Data Association and Track Management for the Gaussian Mixture Probability Hypothesis Density Filter

The Gaussian mixture probability hypothesis density (GM-PHD) recursion is a closed-form solution to the probability hypothesis density (PHD) recursion, which was proposed for jointly estimating the time-varying number of targets and their states from a sequence of noisy measurement sets in the presence of data association uncertainty, clutter, and miss-detection. However the GM-PHD filter does not provide identities of individual target state estimates, that are needed to construct tracks of individual targets. In this paper, we propose a new multi-target tracker based on the GM-PHD filter, which gives the association amongst state estimates of targets over time and provides track labels. Various issues regarding initiating, propagating and terminating tracks are discussed. Furthermore, we also propose a technique for resolving identities of targets in close proximity, which the PHD filter is unable to do on its own.     

Vibrations of circular sandwich plates connected with an elastic foundation

The results of analyzing axisymmetric forced vibrations of an elastic circular sandwich plate connected with an elastic foundation under different surface loads are presented. The hypotheses of a broken normal are accepted to describe the kinematics of a package that is nonsymmetrical over the thickness. The analytical solutions of a problem for plates with a light filler are obtained and numerical analysis is carried out.     

Analysis of nonlinear deformation and stability of reinforced elliptic cylindrical shells under bending with internal pressure

A finite element statement of solving problems on stability of reinforced elliptic cylindrical shells taking into account momentness and nonlinearity of their subcritical stress strain state is presented. The explicit expressions for displacements of noncircular cylindrical shell elements as rigid bodies are determined by integrating the equations obtained by equating the components of linear strains to zero. These expressions were used to construct the form functions for an efficient quadrilateral finite element of natural curvature. An efficient numerical algorithm of nonlinear deformation and stability of shells was developed. The stability of reinforced elliptic cylindrical shells under combined loading by bending moment, transverse boundary force and internal pressure is analyzed. We also examine how the critical loads are affected by the strain nonlinearity and ellipticity of shell deformation at the subcritical stage.     

The IMPACT Solar Wind Electron Analyzer (SWEA)

SWEA, the solar wind electron analyzers that are part of the IMPACT in situ investigation for the STEREO mission, are described. They are identical on each of the two spacecraft. Both are designed to provide detailed measurements of interplanetary electron distribution functions in the energy range 1～3000 eV and in a 120°×360° solid angle sector. This energy range covers the core or thermal solar wind plasma electrons, and the suprathermal halo electrons including the field-aligned heat flux or strahl used to diagnose the interplanetary magnetic field topology. The potential of each analyzer will be varied in order to maintain their energy resolution for spacecraft potentials comparable to the solar wind thermal electron energies. Calibrations have been performed that show the performance of the devices are in good agreement with calculations and will allow precise diagnostics of all of the interplanetary electron populations at the two STEREO spacecraft locations.     

Neutral Atmospheres

This paper summarizes the understanding of aeronomy of neutral atmospheres in the solar system, discussing most planets as well as Saturn’s moon Titan and comets. The thermal structure and energy balance is compared, highlighting the principal reasons for discrepancies amongst the atmospheres, a combination of atmospheric composition, heliocentric distance and other external energy sources not common to all. The composition of atmospheres is discussed in terms of vertical structure, chemistry and evolution. The final section compares dynamics in the upper atmospheres of most planets and highlights the importance of vertical dynamical coupling as well as magnetospheric forcing in auroral regions, where present. It is shown that a first order understanding of neutral atmospheres has emerged over the past decades, thanks to the combined effects of spacecraft and Earth-based observations as well as advances in theoretical modeling capabilities. Key gaps in our understanding are highlighted which ultimately call for a more comprehensive programme of observation and laboratory measurements.     

Upgrading CCIR's foF2 maps using available ionosondes and genetic algorithms

We have developed a new approach towards a new database of the ionospheric parameter $f_{o}F2$. This parameter, being the frequency of the maximum of the ionospheric electronic density profile and its main modeller, is of great interest not only in atmospheric studies but also in the realm of radio propagation. The current databases, generated by CCIR (Committee Consultative for Ionospheric Radiowave propagation) and URSI (International Union of Radio Science), and used by the IRI (International Reference Ionosphere) model, are based on Fourier expansions and have been built in the 60s from the available ionosondes at that time. The main goal of this work is to upgrade the databases by using new available ionosonde data. To this end we used the IRI diurnal/spherical expansions to represent the $f_{o}F2$ variability, and computed its coefficients by means of a genetic algorithm (GA). In order to test the performance of the proposed methodology, we applied it to the South American region with data obtained by RAPEAS (Red Argentina para el Estudio de la Atmósfera Superior, i.e. Argentine Network for the Study of the Upper Atmosphere) during the years 1958–2009. The new GA coefficients provide a global better fit of the IRI model to the observed $f_{o}F2$ than the CCIR coefficients. Since the same formulae and the same number of coefficients were used, the overall integrity of IRI’s typical ionospheric feature representation was preserved. The best improvements with respect to CCIR are obtained at low solar activities, at large (in absolute value) modip latitudes, and at night-time. The new method is flexible in the sense that can be applied either globally or regionally. It is also very easy to recompute the coefficients when new data is available. The computation of a third set of coefficients corresponding to days of medium solar activity in order to avoid the interpolation between low and high activities is suggested. The same procedure as for $f_{o}F2$ can be perfomed to obtain the ionospheric parameter M(3000)F2.     

Near-infrared study of open clusters Teutsch 10 and Teutsch 25

The astrophysical parameters have been estimated for two unstudied open star clusters Teutsch 10 and Teutsch 25 using the Two Micron All Sky Survey ($2\mathit{MASS}$) database. Radius is estimated as 4.5 arcmin for both clusters using radial density profiles. We have estimated proper motion values in both RA and DEC directions as $2.28\pm 0.3$ and $-0.38\pm 0.11$?mas?yr^?1 for Teutsch 10 and $0.48\pm 0.3$ and $3.35\pm 0.16$?mas?yr^?1 for Teutsch 25 using $\mathit{PPMXL}$¹ catalog. By estimating the stellar membership probabilities, we have identified 30 and 28 most likely members for Teutsch 10 and Teutsch 25 respectively. We have estimated the reddening as $E(B-V)=0.96\pm 0.3$?mag for Teutsch 10 and $0.58\pm 0.2$?mag for Teutsch 25, while the corresponding distances are $2.4\pm 0.2$ and $1.9\pm 0.1$?kpc. Ages of $70\pm 10$?Myr for Teutsch 10 and $900\pm 100$?Myr for Teutsch 25 are estimated using the theoretical isochrones of metallicity Z?=?0.019. The mass function slopes are derived as $1.23\pm 0.30$ and $1.09\pm 0.35$ for Teutsch 10 and Teutsch 25 respectively. Estimated mass function slope for both the clusters are close to the Salpeter value ($x=1.35$) within the errors. Estimated values of dynamical relaxation time are found to be less than cluster’s age for these objects. This concludes that both objects are dynamically relaxed. The possible reason for relaxation may be due to dynamical evolution or imprint of star formation or both.