A Bayesian approach for integrating multilevel priors and data for aerospace system reliability assessment

This paper investigates Bayesian methods for aerospace system reliability analysis using various sources of test data and expert knowledge at both subsystem and system levels. Four scenarios based on available information for the priors and test data of a system and/or subsystems are studied using specific Bayesian inference techniques. This paper proposes the Bayesian melding method for integrating subsystem-level priors with system-level priors for both system- and subsystem-level reliability analysis. System and subsystem reliability outcomes are compared under different scenarios. Computational challenges for posterior inferences using the sophisticated Bayesian melding method are addressed using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and adaptive Sampling Importance Re-sampling (SIR) methods. A case study with simulation results illustrates the applications of the proposed methods and provides insights for aerospace system reliability analysis using available multilevel information.     

A sensitivity study of the effectiveness of active debris removal in LEO

The near-Earth orbital debris population will continue to increase in the future due to ongoing space activities, on-orbit explosions, and accidental collisions among resident space objects. Commonly adopted mitigation measures, such as limiting postmission orbital lifetimes of satellites to less than 25 years, will slow down the population growth, but will be insufficient to stabilize the environment. To better limit the growth of the future debris population, the remediation option, i.e., removing existing large and massive objects from orbit, needs to be considered. This paper does not intend to address the technical or economical issues for active debris removal. Rather, the objective is to provide a sensitivity study to illustrate and quantify the effectiveness of various remediation options. An effective removal criterion based upon mass and collision probability is developed. This study includes simulations with removal rates ranging from 5 to 20 objects per year, starting in the year 2020. The outcome of each simulation is analyzed and compared with others. The summary of the study serves as a general guideline for future debris removal consideration.     

New flare model using recent measurements of the solar ultraviolet irradiance

The solar photon output from the Sun, which was once thought to be constant, varies considerably over time scales from seconds during solar flares to years due to the solar cycle. This is especially true in the wavelengths shorter than 190 nm. These variations cause significant deviations in the Earth and space environment on similar time scales, which then affects many things including satellite drag, radio communications, atmospheric densities and composition of particular atoms, molecules, and ions of Earth and other planets, as well as the accuracy in the Global Positioning System (GPS). The Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM) is an empirical model that estimates the solar irradiance at wavelengths from 0.1 to 190 nm at 1 nm resolution with a time cadence of 60 s. This is a high enough temporal resolution to model variations due to solar flares, for which few accurate measurements at these wavelengths exist. This model also captures variations on the longer time scales of solar rotation (days) and solar cycle (years). Daily average proxies used are the 0–4 nm irradiance, the Mg II c/w, F10.7, as well as the 1 nm bins centered at 30.5 nm, 121.5 (Lyman Alpha), and 36.5 nm. The GOES 0.1–0.8 nm irradiance is used as the flare proxy. The FISM algorithms are given, and results and comparisons are shown that demonstrate the FISM estimations agree within the stated uncertainties to the various measurements of the solar Vacuum Ultraviolet (VUV) irradiance.     

Serpentinization and its implications for life on the early Earth and Mars

Ophiolites, sections of ocean crust tectonically displaced onto land, offer significant potential to support chemolithoautotrophic life through the provision of energy and reducing power during aqueous alteration of their highly reduced mineralogies. There is substantial chemical disequilibrium between the primary olivine and pyroxene mineralogy of these ophiolites and the fluids circulating through them. This disequilibrium represents a potential source of chemical energy that could sustain life. Moreover, E (h)-pH conditions resulting from rock- water interactions in ultrabasic rocks are conducive to important abiotic processes antecedent to the origin of life. Serpentinization--the reaction of olivine- and pyroxene-rich rocks with water--produces magnetite, hydroxide, and serpentine minerals, and liberates molecular hydrogen, a source of energy and electrons that can be readily utilized by a broad array of chemosynthetic organisms. These systems are viewed as important analogs for potential early ecosystems on both Earth and Mars, where highly reducing mineralogy was likely widespread in an undifferentiated crust. Secondary phases precipitated during serpentinization have the capability to preserve organic or mineral biosignatures. We describe the petrology and mineral chemistry of an ophiolite-hosted cold spring in northern California and propose criteria to aid in the identification of serpentinizing terranes on Mars that have the potential to harbor chemosynthetic life.     

The astrobiology primer: an outline of general knowledge--version 1, 2006

The Astrobiology Primer has been created as a reference tool for those who are interested in the interdisciplinary field of astrobiology. The field incorporates many diverse research endeavors, but it is our hope that this slim volume will present the reader with all he or she needs to know to become involved and to understand, at least at a fundamental level, the state of the art. Each section includes a brief overview of a topic and a short list of readable and important literature for those interested in deeper knowledge. Because of the great diversity of material, each section was written by a different author with a different expertise. Contributors, authors, and editors are listed at the beginning, along with a list of those chapters and sections for which they were responsible. We are deeply indebted to the NASA Astrobiology Institute (NAI), in particular to Estelle Dodson, David Morrison, Ed Goolish, Krisstina Wilmoth, and Rose Grymes for their continued enthusiasm and support. The Primer came about in large part because of NAI support for graduate student research, collaboration, and inclusion as well as direct funding. We have entitled the Primer version 1 in hope that it will be only the first in a series, whose future volumes will be produced every 3-5 years. This way we can insure that the Primer keeps up with the current state of research. We hope that it will be a great resource for anyone trying to stay abreast of an ever-changing field.     

Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera (LROC) Instrument Overview

The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera (LROC) Wide Angle Camera (WAC) and Narrow Angle Cameras (NACs) are on the NASA Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO). The WAC is a 7-color push-frame camera (100 and 400 m/pixel visible and UV, respectively), while the two NACs are monochrome narrow-angle linescan imagers (0.5 m/pixel). The primary mission of LRO is to obtain measurements of the Moon that will enable future lunar human exploration. The overarching goals of the LROC investigation include landing site identification and certification, mapping of permanently polar shadowed and sunlit regions, meter-scale mapping of polar regions, global multispectral imaging, a global morphology base map, characterization of regolith properties, and determination of current impact hazards.     

Analysis of the Boeing 747-100 using CEASIOM

One of the requirements for the SimSAC project was to use existing aircraft to act as benchmarks for comparison with CEASIOM generated models. Within this paper, results are given for one of these examples, the Boeing 747-100. This aircraft was selected because a complete dataset exists in the open domain, which can be used to validate SimSAC generated data. The purpose of this paper is to both give confidence in, and to demonstrate the capabilities of, the CEASIOM environment when used for preliminary aircraft and control system design. CEASIOM is the result of the integration of a set of sophisticated tools by the European Union funded, Framework 6 SimSAC program. The first part of this paper presents a comparison of the aerodynamic results for each of the solvers available within CEASIOM together with data from the 747-100 model published by NASA. The resulting nonlinear model is then trimmed and analysed using the Flight Control System Designer Toolkit (FCSDT) module. In the final section of the paper a state-feedback controller is designed within CEASIOM in order to modify the longitudinal dynamics of the aircraft. The open and closed loop models are subsequently evaluated with selected failed aerodynamic surfaces and for the case of a single failed engine. Through these results, the CEASIOM software suite is shown to be able to generate excellent quality adaptive-fidelity aerodynamic data. This data is contained within a full nonlinear aircraft model to which linear analysis and control system design can be easily applied.     

Inferring Nighttime Ionospheric Parameters with the Far Ultraviolet Imager Onboard the Ionospheric Connection Explorer

The Ionospheric Connection Explorer (ICON) Far Ultraviolet (FUV) imager, ICON FUV, will measure altitude profiles of OI 135.6 nm emissions to infer nighttime ionospheric parameters. Accurate estimation of the ionospheric state requires the development of a comprehensive radiative transfer model from first principles to quantify the effects of physical processes on the production and transport of the 135.6 nm photons in the ionosphere including the mutual neutralization contribution as well as the effect of resonant scattering by atomic oxygen and pure absorption by oxygen molecules. This forward model is then used in conjunction with a constrained optimization algorithm to invert the anticipated ICON FUV line-of-sight integrated measurements. In this paper, we describe the connection between ICON FUV measurements and the nighttime ionosphere, along with the approach to inverting the measured emission profiles to derive the associated O⁺ profiles from 150–450 km in the nighttime ionosphere that directly reflect the electron density in the F-region of the ionosphere.     

Impact of a novel hybrid accelerometer on satellite gravimetry performance

The state-of-the-art electrostatic accelerometers (EA) used for the retrieval of non-gravitational forces acting on a satellite constitute a core component of every dedicated gravity field mission. However, due to their difficult-to-control thermal drift in the low observation frequencies, they are also one of the most limiting factors of the achievable performance of gravity recovery. Recently, a hybrid accelerometer consisting of a regular EA and a novel cold atom interferometer (CAI) that features a time-invariant observation stability and constantly recalibrates the EA has been developed in order to remedy this major drawback. In this paper we aim to assess the value of the hybrid accelerometer for gravity field retrieval in the context of GRACE-type and Bender-type missions by means of numerical closed-loop simulations where possible noise specifications of the novel instrument are considered and different components of the Earth’s gravity field signal are added subsequently. It is shown that the quality of the gravity field solutions is mainly dependent on the CAI’s measurement accuracy. While a low CAI performance (10^?8 to 10^?9?m/s²/Hz^1/2) does not lead to any gains compared to a stand-alone EA, a sufficiently high one (10^?11?m/s²/Hz^1/2) may improve the retrieval performance by over one order of magnitude. We also show that improvements which are limited to low-frequency observations may even propagate into high spherical harmonic degrees. Further, the accelerometer performance seems to play a less prominent role if the overall observation geometry is improved as it is the case for a Bender-type mission. The impact of the accelerometer measurements diminishes further when temporal variations of the gravity field are introduced, pointing out the need for proper de-aliasing techniques. An additional study reveals that the hybrid accelerometer is – contrary to a stand-alone EA – widely unaffected by scale factor instabilities.     

A material experiment for small satellites to characterise the behaviour of carbon nanotubes in space – development and ground validation

Over the last years, Carbon Nanotubes (CNT) drew interdisciplinary attention. Regarding space technologies a variety of potential applications were proposed and investigated. However, no complex data on the behaviour and degradation process of carbon nanotubes under space environment exist. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate the performance of these new materials in space environment and to revaluate the application potential of CNTs in space technologies.Hence, CiREX (Carbon Nanotubes – Resistance Experiment) was developed as a part of a student project. It is a small and compact experiment, which is designed for CubeSat class space satellites. These are a class of nanosatellites with a standardized size and shape. The CiREX design, electrical measurements and the satellites interfaces will be discussed in detail. CiREX is the first in-situ space material experiment for CNTs.To evaluate the data obtained from CiREX, ground validation tests are mandatory. As part of an extensive test series the behaviour of CNTs under solar ultra violet light (UV) and vacuum ultraviolet light (VUV) was examined. Single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWNT), multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWNT) and MWNT/resin composite (ME) were exposed to different light sources. After the exposure, the defect density was investigated with Raman spectroscopy. There is a clear indication that UV and VUV light can increase the defect density of untreated CNTs and influence the electrical behaviour.