An empirical approach to predicting the key parameters for a sunspot number cycle

The common methodologies used to predict the smooth sunspot number (SSN) at peak (Rmax) and the rise time (Tr) for a cycle are noted. The estimates based on geomagnetic precursors give the best prediction of Rmax for five SSN cycles (20–24). In particular, an empirical technique invoking three-cycle quasi-periodicity (TCQP) in Ap index has made accurate predictions of Rmax and Tr for two consecutive SSN cycles (23 and 24). The dynamo theories are unable to account for TCQP. If it endures in the 21st century the Sun shall enter a Dalton-like grand minimum. It was a period of global cooling. The current status of the ascending phase of cycle 24 is described and the delayed reversal of the solar polar field reversal in the southern hemisphere in September 2013 is noted.     

Investigation of ionospheric response to two moderate geomagnetic storms using GPS–TEC measurements in the South American and African sectors during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24

The responses of the ionospheric F region using GPS–TEC measurements during two moderate geomagnetic storms at equatorial, low-, and mid-latitude regions over the South American and African sectors in May 2010, during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24, are investigated. The first moderate geomagnetic storm studied reached a minimum Dst value of −64 nT at 1500 UT on 02 May 2010 and the second moderate geomagnetic storm reached a minimum Dst value of −85 nT at 1400 UT on 29 May 2010. In this paper, we present vertical total electron content (VTEC) and phase fluctuations (in TECU/min) from Global Positioning System (GPS) observations from the equatorial to mid-latitude regions in the South American and African sectors. Our results obtained during these two moderate geomagnetic storms from both sectors show significant positive ionospheric storms during daytime hours at the equatorial, low-, and mid-latitude regions during the main and recovery phases of the storms. The thermospheric wind circulation change towards the equator is a strong indicator that suggests an important mechanism is responsible for these positive phases at these regions. A pre-storm event that was observed in the African sector from low- to the mid-latitude regions on 01 May 2010 was absent in the South American sector. This study also showed that there was no generation or suppression of ionospheric irregularities by storm events. Therefore, knowledge about the suppression and generation of ionospheric irregularities during moderate geomagnetic storms is still unclear.     

The Big Pine Creek watershed and climate change: A trend analysis of Landsat surface reflectance and PRISM datasets over the last 3 decades

Recent variations in normal meteorological conditions indicate the earth’s climate is changing in ways that may impact delicate ecological balances in sensitive regions. Identifying how those changes are affecting the biosphere is essential if we are going to be able to adapt to those changes and to potentially mitigate their harmful consequences. This paper presents a time series study of an alpine ecosystem in the Big Pine Creek watershed in California’s Eastern Sierra Nevada Mountain’s. Raw Landsat data covering the years 1984 through 2011 is converted to observed surface reflectance and analyzed for trends that would indicate a change in the ecosystem. We found that over the time period of the study, observed surface reflectance shows a general decline across the spectrum while our analysis of environmental data demonstrates statistically significant increases in temperatures. While declining reflectance in the visible and short wave bands are indicators of increased surface cover, the fact that the IR band also shows declines is consistent with a decline in tree density. This study provides a useful insight into the ecological response of the Big Pine Creek watershed to recent climate change. These findings suggest that alpine ecosystems are particularly sensitive to increasing temperatures. If these results are replicated in other alpine watersheds it will demonstrate that the biosphere is already showing the effects of a warmer environment.     

Observational Aspects of Particle Acceleration in Large Solar Flares

Solar flares efficiently accelerate electrons to several tens of MeV and ions to 10 GeV. The acceleration is usually thought to be associated with magnetic reconnection occurring high in the corona, though a shock produced by the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) associated with a flare can also accelerate particles. Diagnostic information comes from emission at the acceleration site, direct observations of Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs), and emission at radio wavelengths by escaping particles, but mostly from emission from the chromosphere produced when the energetic particles bombard the footpoints magnetically connected to the acceleration region. This paper provides a review of observations that bear upon the acceleration mechanism.     

On the conditions for fluidisation in cometary mantles

In our current understanding, active cometary nuclei comprise a volatile-depleted outer crust covering a mixture of dust and ices. During each perihelion passage the thermal wave penetrates the crust and sublimates a portion of these ices, which then escape the nucleus, dragging with them dust particles that replenish the coma and dust tail. The flux of released gases is likely to vary as a complex function of solar distance, nucleus structure, spin rate, etc. It has been previously hypothesised that at some point a fluidised state could occur, in which the gas drag is approximately equal to the weight of overlying dust and ice grains. This state is well understood and used in industrial processes where extensive mixing of the gas and solid components is desired. The literature on fluidisation under reduced gravity and pressure conditions is here reviewed and published relations used to predict the conditions under which fluidisation could occur in the near-surface of a cometary nucleus.     

Rational placement and required number of information unmanned aerial systems for on-line monitoring of large territories

An urgent problem of organizing the on-line monitoring of large territories using the information unmanned aerial systems (UAS) is considered. We determine the UAS placement and their necessary number by solving a two-criteria problem on rational covering of the territory by these systems. A man-machine algorithm and an example of the problem solution are presented.     

Problems of complex safety of helicopter operation with regard for real expenditure of its service life

The methodical grounds for helicopter operation with respect to the technical condition for the state of the art of aeronautical engineering are analyzed and generalized. The most essential engineering solutions on developing the systems for monitoring the helicopter operating conditions are considered. The promising lines for further development of these systems are designated.     

The PROCESS experiment: an astrochemistry laboratory for solid and gaseous organic samples in low-earth orbit

The PROCESS (PRebiotic Organic ChEmistry on the Space Station) experiment was part of the EXPOSE-E payload outside the European Columbus module of the International Space Station from February 2008 to August 2009. During this interval, organic samples were exposed to space conditions to simulate their evolution in various astrophysical environments. The samples used represent organic species related to the evolution of organic matter on the small bodies of the Solar System (carbonaceous asteroids and comets), the photolysis of methane in the atmosphere of Titan, and the search for organic matter at the surface of Mars. This paper describes the hardware developed for this experiment as well as the results for the glycine solid-phase samples and the gas-phase samples that were used with regard to the atmosphere of Titan. Lessons learned from this experiment are also presented for future low-Earth orbit astrochemistry investigations.     

A new spectral index to detect Poaceae grass abundance in Mongolian grasslands

The objectives of the present study were to develop a new index based on remotely-sensed data for detecting the abundance of grasses in the family Poaceae, which has a high palatability for livestock in Mongolia, and to map the distribution of these grasses in the semi-arid Mongolian steppes. We measured ground-based spectral reflectance of pure plant leaves – including Poaceae grasses – and soils, as well as in-situ in the Mongolian grasslands. The hyper-spectral data, taken by a spectroradiometer, were converted into four multi-spectral bands (i.e., blue, green, red, and NIR) to simulate satellite-based imagery data. In order to magnify the characteristics of the spectral signal of Poaceae, NGBDI (Normalized Green-Blue Difference Index), NGRDI (Normalized Green-Red Difference Index), NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), NNBDI (Normalized NIR-Blue Difference Index) were calculated from the four multi-spectral reflectance values. Poaceae Abundance Index (PAI) was derived by combining these four normalized difference indices. PAI was found out to be a good indicator to discriminate Poaceae grass from the other plant spectral data.     

Analysis of data of “Clementine” and “KAGUYA” missions and “ULCN” and “KSC-1162” catalogues

In this paper an analysis of data coordinate systems from selenographic catalogues and space missions was carried out. The lunar macrorelief models were made on basis of the software package ASNI USTU using method of the spherical harmonic expansion. These models accurately describe the global features of the lunar figure. To construct these models the following sources of topographic information were used: “Clementine” and “KАGUYА” (Selena, Japan mission) missions, “KSC-1162” (Kazan selenocentric catalogue), “Kiev” (selenodesic catalogue), “SAI” (Chuikova (1975)), “Bills, Ferrari”, “ULCN” (The Unified Lunar Control Network 2005). Direct comparison hypsometric information “KSС-1162” catalogue data with “Clementine” mission was carried out. These researches confirmed a good agreement of the hypsometric information of compared systems. The normalized coefficients were obtained on basis of the hypsometric information expansion for eight sources. The displacement of the lunar center of mass (LCM) relatively to the lunar center of figure (LCF) was obtained by using topographic data selenodetical catalogues and space missions.