史汪彗星的彗尾

史汪彗星彗尾里的纹纹路是怎么产生的?2006年11月,史汪彗星意外增亮到肉眼可见的程度,而离子尾也出现了幽灵般变幻的细部构造.离子尾是由太阳紫外线游离的体所构成,并在太阳风的推送下离开太阳.太阳风本身就具有很强的结构性,并深受太阳变幻莫测的磁场的挟制.     

The relevance of economic data in the decision-making process for orbital launch vehicle programs, a U.S. perspective

Over the past fifteen years, major U.S. initiatives for the development of new launch vehicles have been remarkably unsuccessful. The list is long: NLI, SLI, and X-33, not to mention several cancelled programs aimed at high speed airplanes (NASP, HSCT) which would share some similar technological problems.The economic aspects of these programs are equally as important to their success as are the technical aspects. In fact, by largely ignoring economic realities in the decisions to undertake these programs and in subsequent management decisions, space agencies (and their commercial partners) have inadvertently contributed to the eventual demise of these efforts.The transportation revolution that was envisaged by the promises of these programs has never occurred. Access to space is still very expensive; reliability of launch vehicles has remained constant over the years; and market demand has been relatively low, volatile and slow to develop. The changing international context of the industry (launching overcapacity, etc.) has also worked against the investment in new vehicles in the U.S. Today, unless there are unforeseen technical breakthroughs, orbital space access is likely to continue as it has been with high costs and market stagnation.Space exploration will require significant launching capabilities. The details of the future needs are not yet well defined. But, the question of the launch costs, the overall demand for vehicles, and the size and type of role that NASA will play in the overall launch market is likely to influence the industry. This paper will emphasize the lessons learned from the economic and management perspective from past launch programs, analyze the issues behind the demand for launches, and project the challenges that NASA will face as only one new customer in a very complex market situation. It will be important for NASA to make launch vehicle decisions based as much on economic considerations as it does on solving new technical challenges.     

Global Monitoring for Environment and Security: data policy considerations

Data policy is an important element of the initiative on Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES), which aims to establish a European capacity for the provision and use of operational information for monitoring and management of the environment and civil security by 2008. This paper documents the data policies of the variety of information providers likely to be involved in GMES, identifies the obstacles and draws conclusions on ways to improve data policy coherence. It addresses the main policy issues associated with Earth observation data, as well as with other types of environmental data.     

A 12 year comparison of MIDAS and IRI 2007 ionospheric Total Electron Content

Data assimilation in conventional meteorological applications uses measurements in conjunction with a physical model. In the case of the ionised region of the upper atmosphere, the ionosphere, assimilation techniques are much less mature. The empirical model known as the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) could be used to augment data-sparse regions in an ionospheric now-cast and forecast system. In doing so, it is important that it does not introduce systematic biases to the result. Here, the IRI model is compared to ionospheric observations from the Global Positioning System satellites over Europe and North America. Global Positioning System data are processed into hour-to-hour monthly averages of vertical Total Electron Content using a tomographic technique. A period of twelve years, from January 1998 to December 2009, is analysed in order to capture variations over the whole solar cycle. The study shows that the IRI model underestimates Total Electron Content in the daytime at solar maximum by up to 37% compared to the monthly average of GPS tomographic images, with the greatest differences occurring at the equinox. IRI shows good agreement at other times. Errors in TEC are likely due to peak height and density inaccuracies. IRI is therefore a suitable model for specification of monthly averages of Total Electron Content and can be used to initialise a data assimilation process at times away from solar maximum. It may be necessary to correct for systematic deviations from IRI at solar maximum, and to incorporate error estimation into a data assimilation scheme.     

Assuring the sustainability of space activities

The growth of new space systems and the continued creation of orbital debris could in a few years make activities in Earth orbit unsustainable, so finding cost-effective ways to sustain space activities in Earth orbit is essential. Because outer space activities serve the needs of the military–intelligence, civil, and commercial communities, each with their own requirements, creating the necessary international agreements for reaching and maintaining a condition of sustainability will not be easy. This paper summarizes the primary issues for the international space community regarding our future ability to reap the benefit of space systems in Earth orbit. It explores several of the efforts to develop international agreements that would lead to or support the sustainability of space activities and examines the benefits and drawbacks of each approach. In particular, it reviews progress within the UN COPUOS, and examines the EU's proposal for an international Code of Conduct for Outer Space Activities. It also notes the need for states to establish or expand their own space legal infrastructure to conform to the UN treaties and guidelines for space activities.     

Impulse Response Determination by Cross Correlation

This paper describes the design of a digital cross correlator and its application in determining the impulse response in linear systems. The output of the cross correlator, which correlates the input and the output of a linear system excited by noise, is the same as the response of the linear system to a pulse which is identical to the noise autocorrelation. The impulse response error is defined as the normalized mean-square deviation of the actual from the true impulse response. A digital computer simulation confirms that the conventional technique yields the same impulse error as the correlation technique, when the width of the input rectangular pulse is equivalent to the width of the noise autocorrelation function. The operation and design of the digital correlator are discussed. An advantage of the specially designed digital correlator over a general-purpose digital computer is to operate in real time without problems of software and storage. The presented experimental and digitally computed results show that the digital correlator can accurately determine the impulse response, even in presence of perturbations. Only the correlation technique allows measurement of system impulse response without disturbing normal operation. Suggestions are made to simplify the design and improve the speed (bandwidth capability).     

Recursive Methods for Computing Detection Probabilities

Recursive methods are drived for computing detection probabilities for general fluctuating targets in Gaussian noise. For the generalized chi-square family of fluctuating targets, very simple and convenient recursive algrithms result. The methods are also extended to cell-averaging CFAR. Although the detection probability is expressed iw: terms of an infinite series, a convenient expression is derived for the resulting error when the series is truncated. Cell-averaging CFAR results are computed for nonfluctuating, Swering case I, and Swerling case II fluctuating targets.     

Anthropogenic and natural causes of twentieth century temperature change

We analyse spatio-temporal patterns of near-surface temperature change to provide an attribution of twentieth century climate change. We apply an ``optimal detection' methodology to seasonal and annual data averaged over a range of spatial and temporal scales. We find that solar effects may have contributed significantly to the warming in the first half of the century although this result is dependent on the reconstruction of total solar irradiance that is used. In the latter half of the century, we find that anthropogenic increases in greenhouses gases are largely responsible for the observed warming, balanced by some cooling due to anthropogenic sulphate aerosols, with no evidence for significant solar effects.