Fractal Structure of the Heliospheric Plasma Sheet at the Earth''''s Orbit

An analysis of the data from the Wind and IMP-8 spacecraft revealed that a slow solar wind, flowing in the heliospheric plasma sheet, represents a set of magnetic tubes with plasma of increased density (N > 10cm-3 at the Earth's orbit). They have a fine structure at several spatial scales (fractality), from 2°-3°(at the Earth's orbit, it is equivalent to 3.6-5.4h, or (5.4-8.0)×106km) to the minimum about 0.025°, i.e. the angular size of the nested tubes is changed nearly by two orders of magnitude. The magnetic tubes at each observed spatial scale are diamagnetic, i.e. their surface sustains a flow of diamagnetic (or drift) current that decreases the magnetic field within the tube itself and increases it outside the tube. Furthermore, the value of β= 8π[N(Te + Tp)]/B2 within the tube exceeds the value of βoutside the tube. In many cases total pressure P = N(Te + Tp) + B2/8πis almost constant within and outside the tubes at any one of the aforementioned scales.     

The Physical Foundation of Forecasting Disturbances in the Geospace From Solar Disk Characteristics

The five main types of antisunward propagating energetic fluxes (particles and emission) may be thought of as well established to date, the effects of which lead to a particilar character of disturbance in the near-terrestrial environment (the Earth's magnetosphere, ionosphere and atmosphere). The strongest global restructuring of the magnetosphere and ionosphere is caused by fluxes of relatively dense n of 1-70 cm-3 at the Earth's orbit) Solar Wind (SW) quasi-neutral, low-energy (E ＜ 10 keV) plasma which cause magnetospheric and ionospheric storms lasting 24 hours or longer. For that reason, main attention is given to their study at the initial stage of research. The physical essence of the method of predicting disturbances in the near-terrestrial space environment, the amplitude of which can be expressed in, for example, the Kp index units, involves:(1) identifying all the most geo-effective SW streams of type, (2) determing their sources on the solar disk,and (3) quantifying the correlations between the characteristics of their solar sources with a maximum value of the Kp-index that is caused by the concerned type of SW stream. Semi-phenomenological relations have been obtained, which relate parameters of type SW stream sources to characteristics of geomagnetic storms:storm commencement, the time at which the storm intensity reaches its maximum values, the storm duration,as well as to the storm amplitude expressed in terms of geomagnetic indeces.     

Magnetic Field Fluctuations in the Solar Wind, Foreshock and Magnetosheath： Cluster Data Analysis

46 magnetosheath crossing events from the two years (2001.2-2003.1) of Cluster magnetic field measurements are identified and used to investigate the characters of the magnetic field fluctuations in the regions of undisturbed solar wind, foreshock, magnetosheath. The preliminary results indicate the properties of the plasma turbulence in the magnetosheath are strongly controlled by IMF orientation with respect to the bow shock normal. The amplitude of the magnetic field magnitude and direction variations behind quasi-parallel bow shock are larger than those behind quasi-perpendicular bow shock. Almost purely compressional waves are found in quasi-perpendicular magnetosheath.     

Study of the Enhancement Events of Relativistic Electron at the Geosynchronous Orbit

The high flux of energetic electron on geostationary orbit can induce many kinds of malfunction of the satellite there, within which the bulk-charging is the most significant that several broadcast satellite failures were confirmed to be due to this effect. The electron flux on geostationary orbit varies in a large range even up to three orders accompanied the passage of interplanetary magnetic cloud and the following geomagnetic disturbances. Upon the investigation of electron flux enhancement events, two types of events were partitioned as recurrent events and random ones. Both of the two kinds of events relate to the interplanetary conditions such as solar wind parameters, IMF etc and their evolution characters as well. As for the recurrent events, we found that, (1) all of the events exhibits periodic recurrence about 27 days, (2) significant increase of electron flux relates to interplanetary index and characters of their distribution, (3) the electron flux also has relation to solar activity index. An artificial neural network was constructed to estimate the flux I day ahead. The random electron flux enhancement events are rare and present different distribution figures to the recurrent ones. The figure of the random events and the conditions of their occurrence is also discussed in this paper.     

Ionospheric Effects of Geomagnetic Storms in Different Longitude Sectors

This paper analyzes the state of the ionosphere during two geomagnetic storms of a different intensity evolving in different sectors of local time in different seasons. There were used the data from a network of ionospheric stations located in the opposite longitudinal sectors of 80°-150° E and 250°-310° E.This analysis has permitted us to conclude that the detected differences in the variations of the disturbances are likely to be determined by the local time difference of the geomagnetic storm development, its intensity and by the different illumination conditions of the ionosphere.     

The characteristics of sharp (small-scale) boundaries of solar wind plasma and magnetic field structures

We investigate properties of large (>20%) and sharp (<10 min) solar wind ion flux changes using INTERBALL-1 and WIND plasma and magnetic field measurements from 1996 to 1999. These ion flux changes are the boundaries of small-scale and middle-scale solar wind structures. We describe the behavior of the solar wind velocity, temperature and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) during these sudden flux changes. Many of the largest ion flux changes occur during periods when the solar wind velocity is nearly constant, so these are mainly plasma density changes. The IMF magnitude and direction changes at these events can be either large or small. For about 55% of the ion flux changes, the sum of the thermal and magnetic pressure are in balance across the boundary. In many of the other cases, the thermal pressure change is significantly more than the magnetic pressure change. We also attempted to classify the types of discontinuities observed.     

Relationship between daily variation of cosmogenic nuclide Be-7 concentration in atmosphere and solar activities

Daily Be-7 concentrations in air at the height of 15 m are continuously observed at 38°15.2′N, 140°20.9′E, between 2000 and 2001. The average concentration and the relative standard deviation were 4.0 mBq/m³ and 50% in 2000–2001, respectively. The Be-7 concentrations increased 2.5% with the decrease in the sunspot numbers by 6.7% for the term of two years. From the power spectral analysis, the periodicity of 26 days is shown for the daily Be-7 concentrations. The folding analysis indicates that the time variation of the Be-7 concentration is similar to that of the ground-based neutron counting rate, and the phase delay for the minimum portion of Be-7 concentration was roughly 8 days to the maximum sunspot number. These results indicate that the Be-7 concentrations in the air at ground level have 26 day periodicity as a component of time variations and the time variation is caused by the solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays, which corresponds to the variation of the sunspot number due to the rotation of the sun.     

Prompt effects of solar wind variations on the inner magnetosphere and midlatitude ionosphere

It is well known that the solar wind can significantly affect high-latitude ionospheric dynamics. However, the effects of the solar wind on the middle- and low-latitude ionosphere are much less studied. In this paper, we report observations that large perturbations in the middle- and low-latitude ionosphere are well correlated with solar wind variations. In one event, a significant (20–30%) decrease of the midlatitude ionospheric electron density over a large latitudinal range was related to a sudden drop in the solar wind pressure and a northward turning of the interplanetary magnetic field, and the density decrease became larger at lower latitudes. In another event, periodic perturbations in the dayside equatorial ionospheric E × B drift and electrojet were closely associated with variations in the interplanetary electric field. Since the solar wind is always changing with time, it can be a very important and common source of ionospheric perturbations at middle- and low-latitudes. The relationship between solar wind variations and significant ionospheric perturbations has important applications in space weather.     

Progress in space weather predictions and applications

The methods of today’s predictions of space weather and effects are so much more advanced and yesterday’s statistical methods are now replaced by integrated knowledge-based neuro-computing models and MHD methods. Within the ESA Space Weather Programme Study a real-time forecast service has been developed for space weather and effects. This prototype is now being implemented for specific users. Today’s applications are not only so many more but also so much more advanced and user-oriented. A scientist needs real-time predictions of a global index as input for an MHD model calculating the radiation dose for EVAs. A power company system operator needs a prediction of the local value of a geomagnetically induced current. A science tourist needs to know whether or not aurora will occur. Soon we might even be able to predict the tropospheric climate changes and weather caused by the space weather.     

PC-index fluctuations and intermittency of the magnetospheric dynamics

One minute resolution Polar Cap (PC) index was used for the analysis of magnetospheric dynamics. The 1995–2000 time series analysis revealed that the power spectrum of the PC-index fluctuations is a power law in a wide range of frequencies. However, the obtained exponents differ for low and high frequency regions. The probability distribution functions of the PC-index fluctuations show a strong non-gaussian shape, depending on the time of increment. This indicates that the PC-index exhibits intermittency, previously detected in solar wind and auroral electrojet index fluctuations. The PC-index probability distribution functions were fitted by the functional form proposed by Castaing et al. [Velocity probability density functions of high Reynolds number turbulence. Physica D. 46, 177–200, 1990] to describe intermittency phenomena in ordinary turbulent fluid flows. The agreement between the fitting parameters obtained for the PC index and those reported before for solar wind magnetic field fluctuations is within 30%; which is noticeably less than the difference between the same parameters of solar wind and the AE-index fluctuations. This fact indicates that the PC index reflects the solar wind influence on the high-latitude magnetosphere, especially during the summer.