The Pre-CME Sun

The coronal mass ejection (CME) phenomenon occurs in closed magnetic field regions on the Sun such as active regions, filament regions, transequatorial interconnection regions, and complexes involving a combination of these. This chapter describes the current knowledge on these closed field structures and how they lead to CMEs. After describing the specific magnetic structures observed in the CME source region, we compare the substructures of CMEs to what is observed before eruption. Evolution of the closed magnetic structures in response to various photospheric motions over different time scales (convection, differential rotation, meridional circulation) somehow leads to the eruption. We describe this pre-eruption evolution and attempt to link them to the observed features of CMEs. Small-scale energetic signatures in the form of electron acceleration (signified by nonthermal radio bursts at metric wavelengths) and plasma heating (observed as compact soft X-ray brightening) may be indicative of impending CMEs. We survey these pre-eruptive energy releases using observations taken before and during the eruption of several CMEs. Finally, we discuss how the observations can be converted into useful inputs to numerical models that can describe the CME initiation.     

LMC X-4: 13.5 s pulsations and an X-ray flare observed by EXOSAT

EXOSAT observed LMC X-4 on November 17/19, 1983 for one 1.4 day binary period during the high state of the 30.5 day cycle. An eclipse with sharp ingress and slow egress was detected with an eclipse angle of 27.1±1.0 dgr. In the medium energy experiment the source showed a hard power law spectrum. Outside eclipse the source was remarkably constant and only one flare was detected on November 17 at 19 UT lasting for about 1 h. The energy spectrum of the source softens considerably during that time and shows an emission line of cold iron. 13.5 sec pulsations are strongly present during the flare and have also been detected during the quiescent period and during several 1 min flares in another EXOSAT LMC X-4 observation on November 22, 1983. A pulse delay time analysis results in the determination of the pulse period (13.5019±0.0002) s and of the semimajor axis of the orbit of the X-ray star (26.0±0.6) It-sec. These results, together with other available information on LMC X-4, allowed to improve the binary parameters. The mass of the neutron star is found to be 1.34 _±0.44 ^0.48 M_o (95% confidence errors).     

Analysis of geometrically nonlinear shells of revolution based on the finite element method with the vector interpolation of desired quantities

In this paper, we present an algorithm for geometrically nonlinear finite element analysis of the shells of revolution. Use is made of the most proper algorithms for vector interpolation of displacements through the nodal unknowns and an efficient algorithm for obtaining the stress-strain increment relation at a step of loading. By comparing the results of analyzing a geometrically nonlinear shell of revolution obtained on the basis of the ANSYS software with the scalar interpolation of displacements with those obtained on the basis of an author-developed finite element, it has been shown that application of the FEM vector displacement interpolation leads to increasing the accuracy of the finite element solutions in analyzing the stress-strain state of the geometrically nonlinear shells.     

Uncertainties in estimates of the risks of late effects from space radiation.

Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Using the linear-additivity model for radiation risks, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain an estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including a deep space outpost and Mars missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, e.g., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well-defined confidence limits.     

On the effect of considering more realistic particle shape and mass parameters in MMOD risk assessments

One of the primary mission risks tracked in the development of all spacecraft is that due to micro-meteoroids and orbital debris (MMOD). Both types of particles, especially those larger than 0.1 mm in diameter, contain sufficient kinetic energy due to their combined mass and velocities to cause serious damage to crew members and spacecraft. The process used to assess MMOD risk consists of three elements: environment, damage prediction, and damage tolerance. Orbital debris risk assessments for the Orion vehicle, as well as the Shuttle, Space Station and other satellites use ballistic limit equations (BLEs) that have been developed using high speed impact test data and results from numerical simulations that have used spherical projectiles. However, spheres are not expected to be a common shape for orbital debris; rather, orbital debris fragments might be better represented by other regular or irregular solids. In this paper we examine the general construction of NASA’s current orbital debris (OD) model, explore the potential variations in orbital debris mass and shape that are possible when using particle characteristic length to define particle size (instead of assuming spherical particles), and, considering specifically the Orion vehicle, perform an orbital debris risk sensitivity study taking into account variations in particle mass and shape as noted above. While the results of the work performed for this study are preliminary, they do show that continuing to use aluminum spheres in spacecraft risk assessments could result in an over-design of its MMOD protection systems. In such a case, the spacecraft could be heavier than needed, could cost more than needed, and could cost more to put into orbit than needed. The results obtained in this study also show the need to incorporate effects of mass and shape in mission risk assessment prior to first flight of any spacecraft as well as the need to continue to develop/refine BLEs so that they more accurately reflect the shape and material density variations inherent to the actual debris environment.