High resolution radar clutter statistics

The generalized compound probability density function (GC-pdf) is presented for modeling high resolution radar clutter. In particular, the model is used to describe deviation of the speckle component from the Rayleigh to Weibull or other pdfs with longer tails. The GC-pdf is formed using the generalized gamma (GΓ) pdf to describe both the speckle and the modulation component of the radar clutter. The proposed model is analyzed and thermal noise is incorporated into it. The validation of the GC-pdf with real data is carried out employing the statistical moments as well as goodness-of-fit tests. A large variety of experimental data is used for this purpose. The GC-pdf outperforms the K-pdf in modeling high resolution radar clutter and reveals its structural characteristics     

Forecasting the 23 and 24 solar cycles on the basis of MGM spectrum

A new method of nonlinear spectral analysis (called the method of global minimum: MGM), based on the best presentation (in sense of minimal squares) of a given time data set as a sum of sinusoids whose frequencies, amplitudes and phases are to be determined, has been used to find periodicities in annual Wolf sunspot numbers (W) during the period 1700–1995. The possible future behaviour of the 11-year solar cycle (based on an extrapolation of the calculated model) is also presented. The main characteristics of the 23^rd solar cycle are as follows: the W maximum occurs about 2004, with a peak of nearly 220. An unusually large value of W will occur during the 23^rd cycle, which should be characterised by the longest maximum, specifically, W will be greater than 100 during the 11-year period from 1997 to 2007. The first sharp rise will occur during the period 1996–1998, the second sharp during 2002–2004. The main features of the 24 year cycle are as follows: the next minimum in W, associated with the 24^th solar cycle, should occur in the year 2008 and the maximum in 2014. W is expected to peak at about 180. The minimum value for the 25^th year cycle is expected to occur in the year 2019. It is shown that the accuracy of these predictions depends, first of all, on the extrapolation of the hyperlong harmonic of the calculated polyharmonic model fit of observed annual sunspot numbers during the period 1700–1995. The error bars in the definition of the maximum and minimum epochs can be as large as two years.     

Amplification of the influence of solar flux variations on the winter stratosphere by planetary waves

Recent observational evidence has suggested that variations in solar activity may affect winter stratospheric polar ozone and temperature levels. The paucity of direct sunlight available during this season points strongly to a dynamical mechanism. We have carried out several large ensemble experiments within the middle atmosphere and the coupled middle atmosphere and lower thermosphere to simulate the radiative/dynamical coupling via planetary waves for a range of solar fluxes. In the former case, the model response in the winter stratosphere was linear and of the order of the summer stratopause forcing, whilst in the latter, the level of correlation in the winter stratosphere remained high, but was diluted over a wider volume. The inclusion of the upper atmosphere enhanced the winter polar stratospheric response by a factor of three.     

Modeling of ionospheric parameter variations in East Asia during the moderate geomagnetic disturbances

The results of modeling of ionospheric disturbances observed in the East Asian region during moderate storms are presented. The numerical model for ionosphere–plasmasphere coupling developed at the ISTP SB RAS is used to interpret the data of observations at ionospheric stations located in the longitudinal sector of 90–130°E at latitudes from auroral zone to equator. There is obtained a reasonable agreement between measurements and modeling results for winter and equinox. In the summer ionosphere, at the background of high ionization by the solar EUV radiation in the quiet geomagnetic period the meridional thermospheric wind strongly impacts the electron concentration in the middle and auroral ionosphere. The consistent calculations of the thermospheric wind permit to obtain the model results which are closer to summer observations. The actual information about the space-time variations of thermosphere and magnetosphere parameters should be taken into account during storms.     

Current collection through the transport of electrons across magnetic field lines

Collection of electrons by a long conducting cylinder in a flowing plasma is studied by means of numerical simulations. The plasma flow simulates the relative motion between a spacecraft and plasma. The sheath structures and the levels of electron current collections for the cases with and without an ambient magnetic field ( ) are studied. It is found that for the flow perpendicular to the magnetic field, the current is considerably enhanced depending on the relative drift velocity. In the case of a non-zero magnetic field perpendicular to the cylinder axis, the potential structure is a two-dimensional double layer with dimensions L L_|, where L and L_| are the dimensions perpendicular and parallel to , respectively. L is found to be the current limiting radius given by the Parker-Murphy model. For the flow along , the electron current is found to be smaller than that for the flow perpendicular to . This is explained in terms of the potential structures.     

Application of Recursive Estimation and Kalman Filtering to Doppler Tracking

The techniques of recursive estimation and Kalman filtering are applied to the problem of estimation of space vehicle orbits and trajectories using only measurements of the Doppler shifts in radio signals transmitted by or reflected from the target. Two approaches are described. One is a global fit technique in which the parameters of an assumed trajectory model are estimated. The second is a pointwise mapping technique in which the trajectory estimate is extrapolated as the target tracking data is received. The paper provides a tutorial illustration of the direct application of recursive optimization techniques to a class of engineering problems.