Modeling the time behavior of the D st index during the main phase of magnetic storms generated by various types of solar wind

Results of modeling the time behavior of the D _st index at the main phase of 93 geomagnetic storms (?250 < D _st ≤ ?50 nT) caused by different types of solar wind (SW) streams: magnetic clouds (MC, 10 storms), corotating interaction regions (CIR, 31 storms), the compression region before interplanetary coronal ejections (Sheath before ICME, 21 storms), and “pistons” (Ejecta, 31 storms) are presented. The “Catalog of Large-Scale Solar Wind Phenomena during 1976–2000” (ftp://ftp.iki.rssi.ru/pub/omni/) created on the basis of the OMNI database was the initial data for the analysis. The main phase of magnetic storms is approximated by a linear dependence on the main parameters of the solar wind: integral electric field sumEy, dynamic pressure P _d , and fluctuation level sB in IMF. For all types of SW, the main phase of magnetic storms is better modeled by individual values of the approximation coefficients: the correlation coefficient is high and the standard deviation between the modeled and measured values of D _st is low. The accuracy of the model in question is higher for storms from MC and is lower by a factor of ～2 for the storms from other types of SW. The version of the model with the approximation coefficients averaged over SW type describes worse variations of the measured D _st index: the correlation coefficient is the lowest for the storms caused by MC and the highest for the Sheath- and CIR-induced storms. The model accuracy is the highest for the storms caused by Ejecta and, for the storms caused by Sheath, is a factor of ～1.42 lower. Addition of corrections for the prehistory of the development of the beginning of the main phase of the magnetic storm improves modeling parameters for all types of interplanetary sources of storms: the correlation coefficient varies within the range from r = 0.81 for the storms caused by Ejecta to r = 0.85 for the storms caused by Sheath. The highest accuracy is for the storms caused by MC. It is, by a factor of ～1.5, lower for the Sheath-induced storms.     

Power law distribution in statistics of failures in operation of spacecraft onboard equipment

The possibility of using the statistics of recurrence time for extreme events is studied in this paper having in mind the problems of control and prediction of failures in spacecraft operation. The information about failures onboard satellites of various types presented by the US National Geophysical Data Center was analyzed. It was found that the probability density of recurrence intervals followed a power law of the Pareto type with an index equal to 2.3. The obtained result is consistent both with the theory of normal catastrophes and with the principle of self-organization of criticality for metastable active heterogeneous environment. A practical consequence of the obtained result consists in the fact that predictions of these extreme events should not rely on traditional models with the second-order Pearson statistics. To make predictions, the models are necessary that take into account the power law distribution of recurrence intervals for failures on satellites. The failures should be considered in these models as extreme events connected with manifestation of the space environment factors.     

Navigation support for the RadioAstron mission

A developed method of determination of orbital parameters allows one to estimate, along with orbit elements, some additional parameters that characterize solar radiation pressure and perturbing accelerations due to unloadings of reactiion wheels. A parameterized model of perturbing action of solar radiation pressure on the spacecraft motion is described (this model takes into account the shape, reflecting properties of surfaces, and spacecraft attitude). Some orbit determination results are presented obtained by the joint processing of radio measurements of slant range and Doppler, laser range measurements used to calibrate the radio measurements, optical observations of right ascension and declination, and telemetry data on spacecraft thrusters’ firings during an unloading of reaction wheels.     

Stable-Member Mounted Instrument Environment Simulation Model Development

The equations of motion for the stable member of a threegimbal platform are presented [3]. These equations are combined with models of the three platform control loops to formulate a model for the system. The system model is simplified and a digital simulation is developed for studying the motion of the stable member under conditions of dynamic vehicle angular environment.     

Structural evolution of cometary surfaces

Comets with a high content of organics and light molecules are expected under cosmic radiation to gain a relatively unreactive crust and less volatile material to some ten metres deep. Interstellar dust impacts act to loosen and turn over 1 cm of the surface. We discuss how far this accords with observations of cometary dust halos and new versus old comets. Two key material properties have emerged from recent studies. Firstly, the source of cometary volatiles is not ice in the sense of material with a single sublimation energy. Secondly, the particulates are not simply mineral dust but include much organic material, some of which undergoes chemical processing and exchanges with the gaseous environment. Consistent with these properties, a coherent crust rather than a mantle of loose grains would build up to cover much of the nucleus of periodic comets. It would consolidate by cooking in the solar radiation, especially at peak temperatures around perihelion. There are two disjoint surface phases: one of volatile material, the other the refractory crust, the former deepening into crater-like hollows over successive apparitions. The transition to non-volatile crust is unstable, subject to competing consolidation and disruption processes, and sensitive to seasonal changes. A comet dims and becomes asteroidal as the inert crust extends over the erosion craters, and may only be rejuvenated via collision with a boulder-sized impactor or perturbation of the orbit to smaller perihelion distance.     

Performances of order statistics CFAR

A previous analysis of order-statistics constant-false-alarm-rate (OS-CFAR) radar receiving a single pulse from a Rayleigh fluctuating target in a Rayleigh background is extended to a Rayleigh-plus-dominant target. The analysis includes effects of a multitarget environment. A detailed comparison of OS-CFAR, cell-averaging (CA) CFAR, and censored CA-CFAR is provided for a Rayleigh target in the presence of strongly interfering targets. The false-alarm analysis of OS-CFAR is extended to the more general case of a Weibull background. The deterioration of the CFAR property of OS as the shape factor, C, of a Weibull probability density function changes from Rayleigh (C=2) to a longer-tailed one (C<2) is evaluated. The analytic comparison between CA-CFAR and OS-CFAR is extended to an integration of pulses reflected from a Swerling II target. The OS-CFAR performance (with and without interfering targets) yields an integral equation that is solved numerically     

Optical Calibration of Geostationary Satellite Tracking Systems

A precise calibration method for range and angle observation has been developed for eliminating the systematic error of tracking systems, thus improving the accuracy of orbit determination for geostationary satellites. The principle of calibration is based on an orbit determination employing a point of optical angle observation in addition to radio tracking observation, in which we estimate observation bias parameters simultaneously with orbital elements, including the effects of geodetic mismodelings. As shown by an actual calibration experiment in our ground station, orbit determinations is sufficiently accurate that the error of predicting satellite range falls within a few meters at four days after the day of orbit determination.     

Insight Into Seeing: A Discussion of the Philosophy Underlying Systems Effectiveness Engineering

Systems Effectiveness Engineering philosophy is discussed as just a new name for the way things should have been done from the beginning. This includes the taking into account of all the factors that are required for the overall total design of any item being designed?not just the mechanical parameters of weight, height, and performance. Models of the U. S. Navy's model structure, the Canadian Department of National Defence's, and the Weapons Systems Effectiveness Industry Advisory Committee are used to illustrate the equation E = ADC, where E is the quantative measure of the achievement of requirements, A is availability, D is dependability, and C is capability*     

Heliopause stability revisited: dispersion analysis and numerical simulations

The heliopause, a surface separating the tenuous hot heliosheath flow and the dense, strongly magnetized interstellar flow, is subject to instabilities of the Rayleigh–Taylor and Kelvin–Helmholtz types. The dynamic evolution of this discontinuity is of considerable importance for understanding the neutral atom and cosmic-ray filtration at the interface. Here, we investigate the stability of the upwind heliopause in the presence of charge exchange collisions using both an analytic (dispersion relation) approach and a numerical model that includes the interstellar magnetic field. The linear analysis yields a cubic dispersion relation that admits imaginary solutions for the full range of wavenumbers, implying that the stagnation point on the heliopause is unconditionally Rayleigh–Taylor unstable to small perturbations propagating parallel to the discontinuity surface. We confirm this result by following the nonlinear development of the instability with a time-dependent simulation using a four fluid MHD-neutral numerical code. For the typical solar wind and LISM conditions, we obtain cyclical evolution of the upwind heliopause with a period of the order of 100 years. We also identify two areas of space physics where the instability may have important implications.