Power law distribution in statistics of failures in operation of spacecraft onboard equipment

The possibility of using the statistics of recurrence time for extreme events is studied in this paper having in mind the problems of control and prediction of failures in spacecraft operation. The information about failures onboard satellites of various types presented by the US National Geophysical Data Center was analyzed. It was found that the probability density of recurrence intervals followed a power law of the Pareto type with an index equal to 2.3. The obtained result is consistent both with the theory of normal catastrophes and with the principle of self-organization of criticality for metastable active heterogeneous environment. A practical consequence of the obtained result consists in the fact that predictions of these extreme events should not rely on traditional models with the second-order Pearson statistics. To make predictions, the models are necessary that take into account the power law distribution of recurrence intervals for failures on satellites. The failures should be considered in these models as extreme events connected with manifestation of the space environment factors.     

Hybrid simulations of the O ion escape from Venus: Influence of the solar wind density and the IMF x component

As an initial effort to study the evolution of the Venus atmosphere, the influence of the solar wind density and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) x component (the x-axis points from Venus towards the Sun) on the O⁺ ion escape rate from Venus is investigated using a three-dimensional quasi-neutral hybrid (HYB-Venus) model. The HYB-Venus model is first applied to a case of the high-density (100 cm⁻³) solar wind interaction with Venus selected from the Pioneer Venus Orbiter observations to demonstrate its capability for the study. Two sets of simulations with a wide range of solar wind densities and different IMF x components are then performed. It is found that the O⁺ ion escape rate increases with increasing solar wind density. The O⁺ ion escape rate saturates when the solar wind density becomes high (above 100 cm⁻³). The results also suggest that the IMF x component enhances the O⁺ ion escape rate, given a fixed IMF component perpendicular to the x-axis. Finally, the results imply a higher ion loss rate for early-Venus, when solar conditions were dramatically different.     

Asteroid and comet hazard: Identification problem of observed space objects with the parental bodies

This article focuses on the genetic identification of observed small cosmic bodies with alleged parental bodies; namely, comets, asteroids and meteoroid swarms. There is a problem of the upper D-value limit as a measure of proximity between the orbits of the bodies in the five-dimensional phase space (Southworth and Hawkins, 1963). In the study of genetic relationships of the comet and meteor complexes, the D value is usually taken as equal to 0.2 for all meteor showers. However, the upper D limit should be investigated for each meteoroid complex. For example, such investigation was performed for the Taurid meteor complex (Porub?an et al., 2006). In this paper, the upper D-criterion limit value was investigated for the Perseid meteor shower. The 1862 III Swift–Tuttle comet is its parental comet.     

Electric field and ion density anomalies in the mid latitude ionosphere: Possible connection with earthquakes?

The problem of earthquake prediction has stimulated the search for a correlation between seismic activity and ionospherical anomalies. We found observational evidence of possible earthquake effects in the near-equatorial and low latitude ionosphere; these ionospheric anomalies have been proposed by Gousheva et al. [Gousheva, M., Glavcheva, R., Danov, D., Angelov P., Hristov, P., Influence of earthquakes on the electric field disturbances in the ionosphere on board of the Intercosmos-Bulgaria-1300 satellite. Compt. Rend. Acad. Bulg. Sci. 58 (8) 911–916, 2005a; Gousheva, M., Glavcheva, R., Danov, D., Angelov, P., Hristov, P., Kirov, B., Georgieva, K., Observation from the Intercosmos-Bulgaria-1300 satellite of anomalies associated with seismic activity. In: Poster Proceeding of 2nd International Conference on Recent Advances in Space Technologies: Space in the Service of Society, RAST ‘2005, June 9–11, Istanbul, Turkey, pp. 119–123, 2005b; Gousheva, M., Glavcheva, R., Danov, D., Angelov, P., Hristov, P., Kirov, B., Georgieva, K., Satellite monitoring of anomalous effects in the ionosphere probably related to strong earthquakes. Adv. Space Res. 37 (4), 660–665, 2006]. This paper presents new results from observations of the quasi-static electric field and ion density on board INTERCOSMOS-BULGARIA-1300 satellite in the mid latitude ionosphere above sources of moderate earthquakes. Data from INTERCOSMOS-BULGARIA-1300 satellite and seismic data (World Data Center, Denver, Colorado, USA) for magnetically quiet and medium quiet days are juxtaposed in time-space domain. For satellite’s orbits in the time period 15.09–01.10.1981 an increase in the horizontal and vertical components of the quasi-static electric field and fluctuations of the ion density are observed over zones of forthcoming seismic events. Some similar post effects are observed too. The emphasis of this paper is put on the anomalies which specify the mid latitude ionosphere. The obtained results contain important information because they confirm our previous results for near-equatorial and low latitude regions.     

Langley method applied in study of aerosol optical depth in the Brazilian semiarid region using 500, 670 and 870 nm bands for sun photometer calibration

Due to the high costs of commercial monitoring instruments, a portable sun photometer was developed at INPE/CRN laboratories, operating in four bands, with two bands in the visible spectrum and two in near infrared. The instrument calibration process is performed by applying the classical Langley method. Application of the Langley’s methodology requires a site with high optical stability during the measurements, which is usually found in high altitudes. However, far from being an ideal site, Harrison et al. (1994) report success with applying the Langley method to some data for a site in Boulder, Colorado. Recently, Liu et al. (2011) show that low elevation sites, far away from urban and industrial centers can provide a stable optical depth, similar to high altitudes. In this study we investigated the feasibility of applying the methodology in the semiarid region of northeastern Brazil, far away from pollution areas with low altitudes, for sun photometer calibration. We investigated optical depth stability using two periods of measurements in the year during dry season in austral summer. The first one was in December when the native vegetation naturally dries, losing all its leaves and the second one was in September in the middle of the dry season when the vegetation is still with leaves. The data were distributed during four days in December 2012 and four days in September 2013 totaling eleven half days of collections between mornings and afternoons and by means of fitted line to the data V₀ values were found. Despite the high correlation between the collected data and the fitted line, the study showed a variation between the values of V₀ greater than allowed for sun photometer calibration. The lowest V₀ variation reached in this experiment with values lower than 3% for the bands 500, 670 and 870 nm are displayed in tables. The results indicate that the site needs to be better characterized with studies in more favorable periods, soon after the rainy season.     

Electrification of Polymer Films in Laboratory and under Space Conditions

A simplified theory of the electrification of polymer films, which permits estimation of the internal electric fields of films irradiated by monoenergetic electrons simulating real streams of plasma electrons during magnetic substorms at a geosynchronous orbit, is suggested. To determine the depth behavior of the forward current and the dosage rate in the irradiated polymer, numerical calculations are made by the Monte Carlo technique. The appearance of electrostatic discharges in thin (5 m) mylar films is shown to be very probable in the orbit's shadow sector under magnetic substorm conditions.     

A boundary value problem of aerohydrodynamics in designing an axisymmetric body with jet blowout

A numerical and analytical method for constructing a shape of the axisymmetric body streamlined with jet blowout by the specified velocity distribution along its meridian section is proposed. The foundation of the method is the iteration process based on the solutions of an inverse problem in the plane case and a primal problem for the axisymmetric body. A program realizing the iteration process is set up and examples of numerical calculations are given.