Solar activity index for long-term ionospheric forecasts

Based on the comparison of solar activity indices (annual average values of the relative number of sunspots Rz₁₂ and solar radio emission flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm F₁₂) with the ionospheric index of solar activity IG₁₂ for 1954–2013, we have found that the index F₁₂ is a more accurate (than Rz₁₂) indicator of solar activity for the long-term forecast of foF2 (the critical frequency of the F2-layer). This advantage of the F₁₂ index becomes especially significant after 2000 if the specific features of extreme ultraviolet radiation of the Sun are additionally taken into account in the minima of solar cycles, using an appropriate correction to F₁₂. Qualitative arguments are given in favor of the use of F₁₂ for the long-term forecast of both foF2 and other ionospheric parameters.     

Computational aerodynamic analysis on perimeter reinforced （PR）-compliant wing

Abstract Implementing the morphing technique on a micro air vehicle （MAV） wing is a very chal- lenging task, due to the MAWs wing size limitation and the complex morphing mechanism. As a result, understanding aerodynamic characteristics and flow configurations, subject to wing structure deformation of a morphing wing MAV has remained obstructed. Thus, this paper presents the investigation of structural deformation, aerodynamics performance and flow formation on a pro- posed twist morphing MAV wing design named perimeter reinforced （PR）-compliant wing. The numerical simulation of two-way fluid structure interaction （FSI） investigation consist of a quasi- static aeroelastic structural analysis coupled with 3D incompressible Reynolds-averaged Navier- Stokes and shear-stress-transport （RANS-SST） solver utilized throughout this study. Verification of numerical method on a rigid rectangular wing achieves a good correlation with available exper- imental results. A comparative aeroelastic study between PR-compliant to PR and rigid wing per- formance is organized to elucidate the morphing wing performances. Structural deformation results show that PR-compliant wing is able to alter the wing＇s geometric twist characteristic, which has directly influenced both the overall aerodynamic performance and flow structure behavior. Despite the superior lift performance result, PR-compliant wing also suffers from massive drag penalty, which has consequently affected the wing efficiency in general. Based on vortices investigation, the results reveal the connection between these aerodynamic performances with vortices formation on PR-comoliant wing.     

Temporal and spatial variation of equatorial ionization anomaly by using multistation ionosonde data for the 19th solar cycle over the Indian region

The paper deals with the study of temporal and spatial variation of equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) phenomenon along with its dependence on solar activity and season during the 19th solar cycle by using seven Indian ionosonde stations. Present study is an attempt to carry out the comprehensive study of EIA by using the limited number of ground based instruments. This has been achieved by performing the Gaussian fitting over the latitudinal distribution of F2-region critical frequency (foF2) data. Results reveal that the phenomenon of EIA has a strong dependence on solar activity and seasons. The EIA crest exhibits the feature of latitudinal shifting and expansion with increasing solar activity. It is found out that the effect of solar cycle and seasons on EIA is local time dependent. The observations were also compared with the IRI-2001 model predictions and results reveal that the model values are in general agreement with the observed values with some discrepancies, particularly during the high solar activity period and morning sector. The results have been discussed in the light of relative contribution from transequatorial interhemispheric neutral wind and strength of equatorial fountain process during different local time, season and solar activity levels. Furthermore, an attempt is made to parameterize the location and foF2 of the EIA crest by using the regression analysis. These results can be used to predict the latitudinal position and foF2 of the EIA crest for any given 12-month running average sunspot number (R12).     

Variations in cosmic ray cutoff rigidities during the great geomagnetic storm of November 2004

A very strong interplanetary and magnetospheric disturbance observed on 7–13 November 2004 can be regarded as one of the strongest events during the entire period of space observations. In this paper we report on the studies of cosmic ray cutoff rigidity variations during 7–13 November 2004 showing how storm conditions can affect the direct cosmic ray access to the inner magnetosphere. Effective cutoff rigidities have been calculated for selected points on the ground by tracing trajectories of cosmic ray particles through the magnetospheric magnetic field of the “storm-oriented” Tsyganenko 2003 model. Cutoff rigidity variations have also been determined by the spectrographic global survey method on the basis of experimental data of the neutron monitor network. Relations between the calculated and experimental cutoff rigidities and the geomagnetic Dst-index and interplanetary parameters have been investigated. Correlation coefficients between the cutoff rigidities obtained by the trajectory tracing method and the spectrographic global survey method have been found to be in the limits 0.76–0.89 for all stations except the low-latitude station Tokyo (0.35). The most pronounced correlation has been revealed between the cutoff rigidities that exhibited a very large variation of ∼1–1.5 GV during the magnetic storm and the Dst index.     

Height of shock formation in the solar corona inferred from observations of type II radio bursts and coronal mass ejections

Employing coronagraphic and EUV observations close to the solar surface made by the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) mission, we determined the heliocentric distance of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the starting time of associated metric type II bursts. We used the wave diameter and leading edge methods and measured the CME heights for a set of 32 metric type II bursts from solar cycle 24. We minimized the projection effects by making the measurements from a view that is roughly orthogonal to the direction of the ejection. We also chose image frames close to the onset times of the type II bursts, so no extrapolation was necessary. We found that the CMEs were located in the heliocentric distance range from 1.20 to 1.93 solar radii (Rs), with mean and median values of 1.43 and 1.38 Rs, respectively. We conclusively find that the shock formation can occur at heights substantially below 1.5 Rs. In a few cases, the CME height at type II onset was close to 2 Rs. In these cases, the starting frequency of the type II bursts was very low, in the range 25–40 MHz, which confirms that the shock can also form at larger heights. The starting frequencies of metric type II bursts have a weak correlation with the measured CME/shock heights and are consistent with the rapid decline of density with height in the inner corona.     

Numerical modeling of propagation of breaking nonlinear acoustic-gravity waves from the lower to the upper atmosphere

Acoustic-gravity waves (AGWs) observed in the upper atmosphere may be generated near the Earth’s surface due to a variety of meteorological sources. Two-dimensional simulations of vertical propagation and breaking of nonlinear AGWs in the atmosphere are performed. Forcing near the Earth’s surface is used as the AGW source in the model. We use a numerical method based on finite-difference analogues of fundamental conservation laws for solving atmospheric hydrodynamic equations. This approach selects physically correct generalized solutions of the wave hydrodynamic equations. Numerical simulations are performed in a representative region of the Earth’s atmosphere up to altitude 500 km. Vertical profiles of temperature, density, molecular viscosity and heat conductivity were taken from the standard atmosphere model MSIS-90 for January. Calculations were made for different amplitudes and frequencies of lower boundary wave forcing. It is shown that after activating the tropospheric wave forcing, the initial pulse of AGWs may very quickly propagate to altitudes of 100 km and above and relatively slowly dissipate due to molecular viscosity and heat conduction. This may increase the role of transient nonstationary waves in effective energy transport and variations of atmospheric parameters and gas admixtures in a broad altitude range.     

A point-wise least squares spectral analysis (LSSA) of the Caspian Sea level fluctuations,using TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason-1 observations

The Caspian Sea has displayed considerable fluctuations in its water level during the past century. Knowledge of such fluctuation is vital for understanding the local hydrological cycles, climate of the region, and construction activities within the sea and along its shorelines. This study established a point-wise satellite altimetry approach to monitor the fluctuations of the Caspian Sea using a complete dataset of TOPEX/Poseidon for the period 1993 to the middle of 2002, and its follow-on Jason-1 for the period 2002 to August 2009. Therefore, 280 virtual time-series were constructed to monitor the fluctuations. The least squares spectral analysis (LSSA) method is, then employed to find the most significant frequencies of the time-series, while the statistical method of principle component analysis (PCA) is applied to extract the dominant variability of level variations. The study also used the observations of TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason-1 over the Volga River along with 5 years of Volga’s water discharge to study its influence on the Caspian Sea level changes. The LSSA results indicate that the lunar semidiurnal (M2) and the Sun semidiurnal (S2) frequencies are the main tidal frequencies of the Caspian Sea with the mean amplitude of 4.2 and 2.8 cm, respectively. A statistically significant long-term frequency (12.5-years period) is also found from altimetry and tide gauge observations. A phase lag, related to the inter-annual frequencies of the Volga River was detected from the point-wise time-series showing level propagation from the northwest to the southeast of the sea. The cross-correlation between the power spectrum of Volga and that of the northern-most, middle, and southern-most points within the Caspian Sea were respectively 0.63, 0.51 and 0.4 of zero-lag correlation, corroborating the influence of the Volga River. The result of PCA also shows that different parts of the Caspian Sea exhibit different amplitudes of level variations, indicating that the point-wise approach, when employing all available satellite measurements could be a suitable method for a preliminary monitoring of this inland water resource as it gives accurate local fluctuations.     

VHF radio response of the near Earth space during solar activity growth in October, 2003

The analysis of observations of very high frequency radio noise intensity at the middle latitude on a frequency f = 500 MHz from 14th till 26th of October, 2003 is presented. These data are compared with the solar radio bursts in the range of frequencies 1–14 MHz registered by RAD2 receiver of the WAVES device installed on board the WIND spacecraft.     

Preparation of the Biochip experiment on the EXPOSE-R2 mission outside the International Space Station

Biochips might be suited for planetary exploration. Indeed, they present great potential for the search for biomarkers – molecules that are the sign of past or present life in space – thanks to their size (miniaturized devices) and sensitivity. Their detection principle is based on the recognition of a target molecule by affinity receptors fixed on a solid surface. Consequently, one of the main concerns when developing such a system is the behavior of the biological receptors in a space environment. In this paper, we describe the preparation of an experiment planned to be part of the EXPOSE-R2 mission, which will be conducted on the EXPOSE-R facility, outside the International Space Station (ISS), in order to study the resistance of biochip models to space constraints (especially cosmic radiation and thermal cycling). This experiment overcomes the limits of ground tests which do not reproduce exactly the space parameters. Indeed, contrary to ground experiments where constraints are applied individually and in a limited time, the biochip models on the ISS will be exposed to cumulated constraints during several months. Finally, this ISS experiment is a necessary step towards planetary exploration as it will help assessing whether a biochip can be used for future exploration missions.