Risk-based technology portfolio optimization for early space mission design

The successful design, development, and operation of space missions requires informed decisions to be made across a vast array of investment, scientific, technological, and operational issues. In the work reported in this paper, we address the problem of determining optimal technology investment portfolios that minimize mission risk and maximize the expected science return of the mission. We model several relationships that explicitly link investment in technologies to mission risk and expected science return. To represent and compute these causal and computational dependencies, we introduce a generalization of influence diagrams that we call inference nets. To illustrate the approach, we present results from its application to a technology portfolio investment trade study done for a specific scenario for the projected 2009 Mars MSL mission. This case study examines the impact of investments in precision landing and long-range roving technologies on the mission capability, and the associated risk, of visiting a set of preselected science sites. We show how an optimal investment strategy can be found that minimizes the mission risk given a fixed total technology investment budget, or alternatively how to determine the minimum budget required to achieve a given acceptable mission risk.     

A state-of-the-art review in radar polarimetry and its applicationsin remote sensing

The authors assess the state of the art, focusing on their own contributions. Covered areas are the electromagnetic inverse problem in radar polarimetry, coherent polarization radar theory, partially coherent polarization radar theory, vector (polarization) inverse scattering approaches, the polarimetric matched filter approach, polarimetric Doppler radar applications in meteorology and oceanography, and image fidelity in microwave vector diffraction tomographic imaging     

Three-dimensional transgenic cell model to quantify genotoxic effects of space environment.

In this paper we describe a three-dimensional, multicellular tissue-equivalent model, produced in NASA-designed, rotating wall bioreactors using mammalian cells engineered for genomic containment of multiple copies of defined target genes for genotoxic assessment. Rat 2 lambda fibroblasts, genetically engineered to contain high-density target genes for mutagenesis (Stratagene, Inc., Austin, TX), were cocultured with human epithelial cells on Cytodex beads in the High Aspect Ratio Bioreactor (Synthecon, Inc, Houston, TX). Multi-bead aggregates were formed by day 5 following the complete covering of the beads by fibroblasts. Cellular retraction occurred 8-14 days after coculture initiation culminating in spheroids retaining few or no beads. Analysis of the resulting tissue assemblies revealed: multicellular spheroids, fibroblasts synthesized collagen, and cell viability was retained for the 30-day test period after removal from the bioreactor. Quantification of mutation at the LacI gene in Rat 2 lambda fibroblasts in spheroids exposed to 0-2 Gy neon using the Big Blue color assay (Stratagene, Inc.), revealed a linear dose-response for mutation induction. Limited sequencing analysis of mutant clones from 0.25 or 1 Gy exposures revealed a higher frequency of deletions and multiple base sequencing changes with increasing dose. These results suggest that the three-dimensional, multicellular tissue assembly model produced in NASA bioreactors are applicable to a wide variety of studies involving the quantification and identification of genotoxicity including measurement of the inherent damage incurred in Space.     

Dust emission phenomena of cometary analogues

Experiments with cometary analogues are reported, which were performed at DLR - Köln in a small vacuum chamber and in the Space Simulator. The results apply to the emission processes of ice-dust grains from the surface of mineral-ice mixtures during insolation. The emission phenomena were observed with CCD-video-cameras. The camera used at the small chamber was equipped with a magnifying (10x) macro-lens. The magnified pictures show that the ice-dust agglomerates carry tiny ice particles on their surfaces. These may play the role of interlinking bonds between one grain and its neighbors. In the enlarged view it can be seen that the ice-dust grains do not erupt with high velocity out of the surface. The upstreaming gas jet originating from the sublimation of the volatile components first erodes the interlinking bonds between the particles. When the drag force exerted on the particles exceeds the force of gravity, the particles lift off. In most of the observed cases this initial lift off velocity is very small e.g. a few cm/s.

During a comet-simulation experiment in the Space-Simulator in November 1989 the trajectories of emitted dust particles were recorded for the first time with a high speed shutter video system 60 cm from the model comet. The video tapes were evaluated with a computerized image processing system. Unique insights in the gas-dust-interaction immediately at and above the insolated icy body were obtained. The trajectories differ markedly in all cases from the the ballistic parabolas calculated from the measured starting conditions: elevation angle and speed. The trajectory is mainly dominated by the momentum transfer from the gas jet to the dust particles. Many of the particles have millimeter sizes. The observed velocities at the end of the visible trajectory are in the order of a few meters per second.     

High resolution exponential modeling of fully polarized radarreturns

A method for modeling full polarization radar target is considered. The approach taken is to estimate a set of target features which describes the target as a set of attributed scattering centers. Each scattering center is characterized by its range, amplitude, and a polarization ellipse. An exponential model for the fully polarized radar return is described, and an algorithm for estimating the parameters in this model is developed. The modeling procedure is applied to compact range measurements of model aircraft     

Mass loading of planetary atmospheres by rocky satellites—II: Transport and enhanced lifetimes of satellite ejecta in planetary magnetospheres

Extensive studies have been conducted concerning individual mass, temporal and positional distribution of submicron rocky ejecta existing in the satellite-planetary gravitational sphere of influence. The transit time of the major portion of the ejecta that is transported from the satellite's gravitational sphere of influence to the planetary magnetopause is about one week and represents a mass loading pulse occurring each satellite orbit. The mass-flux distributions of lunar ejecta at the surface of the magnetopause for a complete lunar orbit are presented. Spatial mass densities of lunar ejecta in specific zones of the magnetosphere provide a means to compare sporadic interplanetary dust spatial mass densities in the same zones.     

Detection and attribution of climate change, and understanding solar influence on climate

The detection of externally-forced climate change in observations, and its attribution to specific forcings, sounds simple enough to some people, but with others it has a reputation as a complex and arcane specialism. In fact, both these impressions have some truth - in principle it is no more than regressing expected patterns of climate change (normally obtained from GCM sim-ulations forced with observed or reconstructed past forcings) against the corresponding observa-tions, with uncertainty estimates that try to be as rigorous as possible, but there are many technical complexities. This survey begins with some motivating examples, and then summarizes the principles, problems and procedure without formal mathematics, before surveying results with an emphasis on possible solar effects, and why they are particularly problematic.