Sunspot cycle 23 descent to an unusual minimum and forecasts for cycle 24 activity

The decay phase of the sunspot cycle 23 exhibited two unusual features. First, it lasted too long. Second, the interplanetary magnetic field intensity at earth orbit reached the lowest value since in situ measurements in space began in October 1963. These physical anomalies significantly altered the early forecasts for the sunspot activity parameters for cycle 24, made by several colleagues. We note that there was a significant change in the solar behavior during cycle 22. We discuss the observed trends and their effect on our empirical solar activity forecast technique, leading to our prediction for cycle 24 parameters; cycle 24 will be only half as active as cycle 23, reaching its peak in May 2013. We speculate on the possible implications of this outcome on future earth climate change and the ensuing socio-economic consequences.     

A demonstration of the potential of Cryosat-2 to contribute to mesoscale observation

Cryosat-2 was designed for its primary scientific objectives, i.e. for cryosphere science. As far as oceanography is concerned, various mission design choices make it less accurate than missions designed to comply with ocean surface topography requirements such as Jason-2 or ENVISAT. Cryosat-2-specific errors are equivalent to more than 50% of the sea surface height variability over 40% of the oceans. Cryosat-2’s sampling pattern is also suboptimal for mesoscale observation because the satellite tracks from any consecutive period of 2 to 20 days (e.g. the most recent and most valuable data for near real time mesoscale observation) are aggregated in 500 km wide bands which are interleaved with 500 km wide observation gaps.     

Probing the first stars and black holes in the early Universe with the Dark Ages Radio Explorer (DARE)

A concept for a new space-based cosmology mission called the Dark Ages Radio Explorer (DARE) is presented in this paper. DARE’s science objectives include: (1) When did the first stars form? (2) When did the first accreting black holes form? (3) When did Reionization begin? (4) What surprises does the end of the Dark Ages hold (e.g., Dark Matter decay)? DARE will use the highly-redshifted hyperfine 21-cm transition from neutral hydrogen to track the formation of the first luminous objects by their impact on the intergalactic medium during the end of the Dark Ages and during Cosmic Dawn (redshifts z = 11–35). It will measure the sky-averaged spin temperature of neutral hydrogen at the unexplored epoch 80–420 million years after the Big Bang, providing the first evidence of the earliest stars and galaxies to illuminate the cosmos and testing our models of galaxy formation. DARE’s approach is to measure the expected spectral features in the sky-averaged, redshifted 21-cm signal over a radio bandpass of 40–120 MHz. DARE orbits the Moon for a mission lifetime of 3 years and takes data above the lunar farside, the only location in the inner solar system proven to be free of human-generated radio frequency interference and any significant ionosphere. The science instrument is composed of a low frequency radiometer, including electrically-short, tapered, bi-conical dipole antennas, a receiver, and a digital spectrometer. The smooth frequency response of the antennas and the differential spectral calibration approach using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique will be applied to detect the weak cosmic 21-cm signal in the presence of the intense solar system and Galactic foreground emissions.     

Space observations of comets during solar flares: A possible explanation for comet brightness outbursts

Problems connected with mechanisms for comet brightness outbursts as well as for gamma-ray bursts remain open. Meantime, calculations show that irradiation of a certain class of comet nuclei, having high specific electric resistance, by intense fluxes of energetic protons and positively charged ions with kinetic energies more than 1 MeV/nucleon, ejected from the Sun during strong solar flares, can produce a macroscopic high-voltage electric double layer with positive charge in the subsurface zone of the nucleus, during irradiation times of the order of 10–100 h at heliocentric distances around 1–10 AU. The maximum electric energy accumulated in such layer will be restricted by the electric discharge potential of the layer material. For comet nuclei with typical radii of the order of 1–10 km the accumulated energy of such natural electric capacitor is comparable to the energy of large comet outbursts that are estimated on the basis of ground based optical observations. The impulse gamma and X-ray radiation together with optical burst from the comet nucleus during solar flares, anticipated due to high-voltage electric discharge, may serve as an indicator of realization of the processes above considered. Multi-wavelength observations of comets and pseudo-asteroids of cometary origin, having brightness correlation with solar activity, using ground based optical telescopes as well as space gamma and X-ray observatories, during strong solar flares, are very interesting for the physics of comets as well as for high energy astrophysics.     

Human exposure to large solar particle events in space.

Whenever energetic solar protons produced by solar particle events traverse bulk matter, they undergo various nuclear and atomic collision processes which significantly alter the physical characteristics and biologically important properties of their transported radiation fields. These physical interactions and their effect on the resulting radiation field within matter are described within the context of a recently developed deterministic, coupled neutron-proton space radiation transport computer code (BRYNTRN). Using this computer code, estimates of human exposure in interplanetary space, behind nominal (2 g/cm2) and storm shelter (20 g/cm2) thicknesses of aluminum shielding, are made for the large solar proton event of August 1972. Included in these calculations are estimates of cumulative exposures to the skin, ocular lens, and bone marrow as a function of time during the event. Risk assessment in terms of absorbed dose and dose equivalent is discussed for these organs. Also presented are estimates of organ exposures for hypothetical, worst-case flare scenarios. The rate of dose equivalent accumulation places this situation in an interesting region of dose rate between the very low values of usual concern in terrestrial radiation environments and the high dose rate values prevalent in radiation therapy.     

Semi-analytical investigations of high area-to-mass ratio geosynchronous space debris including Earth’s shadowing effects

This paper investigates the long-term perturbations of the orbits of geosynchronous space debris influenced by direct radiation pressure including the Earth’s shadowing effects. For this purpose, we propose an extension of our homemade semi-analytical theory [Valk, S., Lemaître, A., Deleflie, F. Semi-analytical theory of mean orbital motion for geosynchronous space debris under gravitational influence. Adv. Space Res., submitted for publication], based on the method developed by Aksnes [Aksnes, K. Short-period and long-period perturbations of a spherical satellite due to direct solar radiation. Celest. Mech. Dyn. Astron. 13, 89–104, 1976] and generalized into a more convenient non-singular formalism. The perturbations accounting for the direct radiation pressure with the Earth’s shadow are computed on a revolution-by-revolution basis, retaining the original osculating Hamiltonian disturbing function. In this framework, we compute the non-singular mean longitude at shadow entry and shadow exit at every orbital revolution in opposition to classical approaches where the singular eccentric anomalies at shadow entry and shadow exit are computed. This new algorithm is developed using non-singular variables. Consequently, it is particularly suitable for both near-circular and near-equatorial orbits as well as orbits which transit periodically around null eccentricities and null inclinations.The algorithm is tested by means of numerical integrations of the equations, averaged over the short periods, including radiation pressure, J₂, the combined Moon and Sun third body attraction as well as the long-term effects of the 1:1 resonance occurring for geosynchronous objects. As an extension of [Valk, S., Lemaître, A., Anselmo, L. Analytical and semi-analytical investigations of geosynchronous space debris with high area-to-mass ratios influenced by solar radiation pressure. Adv. Space Res., doi:10.1016/j.asr.2007.10.025, 2007b], we especially apply our analysis to space debris with area-to-mass as high as 20 m²/kg. This paper provides numerical and semi-analytical investigations leading to a deep understanding of the long-term evolution of the semi-major axis. Finally, these semi-analytical investigations are compared with accurate numerical integrations of the osculating equations of motion over time scales as high as 25 years.     

High resolution science with high redshift galaxies

We summarize the high-resolution science that has been done on high redshift galaxies with Adaptive Optics (AO) on the world’s largest ground-based facilities and with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). These facilities complement each other. Ground-based AO provides better light gathering power and in principle better resolution than HST, giving it the edge in high spatial resolution imaging and high resolution spectroscopy. HST produces higher quality, more stable PSF’s over larger field-of-views in a much darker sky-background than ground-based AO, and yields deeper wide-field images and low-resolution spectra than the ground. Faint galaxies have steadily decreasing sizes at fainter fluxes and higher redshifts, reflecting the hierarchical formation of galaxies over cosmic time. HST has imaged this process in great structural detail to z  6, and ground-based AO and spectroscopy has provided measurements of their masses and other physical properties with cosmic time. Last, we review how the 6.5 m James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will measure First Light, reionization, and galaxy assembly in the near–mid-IR after 2013.     

Sunspot numbers,interplanetary magnetic field,and cosmic ray intensity at earth: Nexus for the twentieth century

The pivotal role played by the interplanetary magnetic field (B) in modulating galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity in the heliosphere is described. We show that the inverse correlation observed by Forbush (1958) between GCRs and sunspot numbers (SSNs) is reflected in high correlation between SSNs and B (cc = 0.94). The SSN data are available since 1700 and the derived B data since 1835. The paleo-cosmic ray data are available for several millennia in the form of ¹⁰Be radionuclide sequestered in polar ice. The data of the ion chambers (ICs) at the Cheltenham–Fredericksburg–Yakutsk (CFY) sites are combined to create a data string for 1937–1988. In turn, these data are used to extend the measurements of the low energy GCR ions (>0.1 GeV) at balloon altitudes at high latitudes in Russia to 1937. These data are then correlated to B and the fit parameters are used to extend the low energy ion data to 1900, creating the instrumental era GCR time series for the twentieth century. The derived GCR time series is compared to ¹⁰Be measured at two sites in Greenland, namely Dye 3 and NGRIP for 1900–2000 to check the internal consistency of datasets for the long-term trend. We find that the annual mean rate (%) for 1965 at NGRIP is an outlier. We replace it with the mean of 1964 and 1965 rates and construct a new re-normalized time series at NGIP, improving the agreement with the derived instrumental era GCR time series for the twentieth century as well. This should encourage its use by heliophysics community for varied applications.