Program goals for the NASA/NOAA Earth Observation Program derived from a stakeholder value network analysis

The 2007 US National Research Council Decadal Survey for Earth Science and Applications from Space was the first consensus perspective produced by the US Earth Science community of the relative priorities among a sequence of 17 satellite missions over the course of the next decade. However, the Decadal Survey only captured the perspective of the science community, leading to questions about the inclusion of broader priorities from constituent communities and stakeholders. We present a stakeholder value network analysis for the NASA/NOAA Earth Observation Program. The analysis includes a rigorous articulation of the needs and objectives of 13 major stakeholders and a complete stakeholder value network with 190 individual “value flows” that capture the interactions between all the stakeholders. It produces a novel stakeholder map, graphically indicating the outputs most likely to create a lasting Earth Science program. The most important value loops and program outputs are used to derive a set of high-level program goals that suggest what NASA and NOAA should do, as well as how they should conduct business. The analysis concludes that international partnerships represent a strong potential partner for certain science missions with greater potential value delivery than currently-prioritized efforts with defense stakeholders and concludes that weather and land-use missions, in addition to climate missions, should be given highest priority; water, human health, and solid Earth missions should be given lower priority based on each science category's potential for delivering value to the entire stakeholder network.     

Computer modelling of a penetrator thermal sensor

The Philae lander is part of the Rosetta mission to investigate comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. It will use a harpoon like device to anchor itself onto the surface. The anchor will perhaps reach depths of 1–2 m. In the anchor is a temperature sensor that will measure the boundary temperature as part of the MUPUS experiment. As the anchor attains thermal equilibrium with the comet ice it may be possible to extract the thermal properties of the surrounding ice, such as the thermal diffusivity, by using the temperature sensor data. The anchor is not an optimal shape for a thermal probe and application of analytical solutions to the heat equation is inappropriate. We prepare a numerical model to fit temperature sensor data and extract the thermal diffusivity. Penetrator probes mechanically compact the material immediately surrounding them as they enter the target. If the thermal properties, composition and dimensions of the penetrator are known, then the thermal properties of this pristine material may be recovered although this will be a challenging measurement. We report on investigations, using a numerical thermal model, to simulate a variety of scenarios that the anchor may encounter and how they will affect the measurement.     

Wolf–Rayet optically thick winds with Alfvén waves

The Wolf–Rayet (WR) stars are hot luminous objects which are suffering an extreme mass loss via a continuous stellar wind. The high values of mass loss rates and high terminal velocities of the WR stellar winds constitute a challenge to the theories of radiation driven winds. Several authors incorporated magnetic forces to the line driven mechanism in order to explain these characteristics of the wind. Observations indicate that the WR stellar winds may reach, at the photosphere, velocities of the order of the terminal values, which means that an important part of the wind acceleration occurs at the optically thick region. The aim of this study is to analyze a model in which the wind in a WR star begins to be accelerated in the optically thick part of the wind. We used as initial conditions stellar parameters taken from the literature and solved the energy, mass and momentum equations. We demonstrate that the acceleration only by radiative forces is prevented by the general behavior of the opacities. Combining radiative forces plus a flux of Alfvén waves, we found in the simulations a fast drop in the wind density profile which strongly reduces the extension of the optically thick region and the wind becomes optically thin too close its base. The understanding how the WR wind initiate is still an open issue.     

Studies of the geocenter motion using 16-years DORIS data

An accuracy of geocenter motion estimation is strongly dependent on the geodetic network size and stations distribution over the Earth’s surface. From this point of view DORIS system has an advantage, as its ground network of beacons consists of more than 50 sites, equally distributed over the Earth’s surface. Aiming to study variations of the geocenter movements, the results of DORIS data analysis for the time span 1993.0–2009.0 (inawd06.snx series), performed at the Analysis Centre of the Institute of astronomy of the Russian Academy of Sciences, have been used. DORIS data processing was made with GIPSY/OASIS II software, developed by Jet Propulsion Laboratory and modified for DORIS data processing by Institute Géographique National. Standard deviations of stations coordinates are estimated at the level 0.5–4.0 cm (internal consistency), depending on the number of satellites used in the solution. RMS of estimated components of the DORIS satellites orbits, compared with the solutions of other IDS analysis centres, do not exceed 1–2 cm. Weekly solutions for coordinates have been transformed from free network solutions (inawd06.snx series) to a well defined terrestrial reference frame ITRF2005 with the use of seven parameters of Helmert transformation, which were examined with a view to study variations of the geocenter movements (ina05wd01.geoc time series). In order to estimate linear trend, amplitudes, periods and phases of geocenter variation a method of linear regression was applied. The evaluated amplitudes of annual variations are of the order of 5–7 mm for X and Y components and 27–29 mm for Z component. Semi-annual amplitudes are also noticeable in all components (1–34 mm for X, Y and Z components). Secular trends in the DORIS geocenter coordinates are: −1.2, −0.1 and −0.3 mm/year for X, Y and Z directions respectively.     

High-speed streams of the solar wind near the earths’s orbit and their sources on the sun according to stereoscopic observations in the minimum of the 23rd cycle

Based on the results of plasma and magnetic measurements at three different points of the heliosphere and telescopic observations of the Sun from these points we study simultaneously high-speed streams (HSS) of the solar wind (SW) near the Earths’s orbit and coronal holes (CH) that have generated them. The data from spacecraft STEREO-A, STEREO-B, ACE, and SOHO are used together with ground-based observations from March 2007 to May 2008. In this period there existed HSS whose sources represented CH of various polarity, geometry, and location relative to the heliographic and heliomagnetic equators. Dependence of SW parameters on mutual positions of spacecraft with respect to CH and heliospheric current sheet, and also on heliolatitude and geometry of the CH is revealed. A difference of more than 5° in locations of spacecraft with respect to the heliospheric current sheet in November 2007 allowed us to discover a heliolatitude velocity gradient of the SW streams between the STEREO-A and STEREO-B spacecraft. On the average this gradient at that time was equal to 20 km/s per degree. Substantial variations in SW streams associated with variations of the HSS SW sources during a few hours or days were also observed. This variability makes it difficult to use the data of spacecraft STEREO-B for sufficiently accurate prediction of SW properties in the near-Earth space by the method of simple advanced ti me shift due to heliolongitude difference between a spacecraft and the Earth even in solar activity minimum.     

Electron flux variations at altitudes of 600–800 km in the second half of 2014. preliminary results of an experiment using RELEC equipment onboard the satellite <Emphasis Type="Italic">VERNOV</Emphasis>

The results of measurements of fluxes and spectra carried out using the RELEC (relativistic electrons) equipment onboard the VERNOV satellite in the second half of 2014 are presented. The VERNOV satellite was launched on July 8, 2014 in a sun-synchronous orbit with an altitude from 640 to 830 km and an inclination of 98.4°. Scientific information from the satellite was first received on July 20, 2014. The comparative analysis of electron fluxes using data from RELEC and using experimental data on the electron detection by satellites Elektro-L (positioned at a geostationary orbit) and Meteor-M no. 2 (positioned at a circular polar orbit at an altitude of about 800 km as the VERNOV satellite) will make it possible to study the spatial distribution pattern of energetic electrons in near-Earth space in more detail.     

Solar activity index for long-term ionospheric forecasts

Based on the comparison of solar activity indices (annual average values of the relative number of sunspots Rz₁₂ and solar radio emission flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm F₁₂) with the ionospheric index of solar activity IG₁₂ for 1954–2013, we have found that the index F₁₂ is a more accurate (than Rz₁₂) indicator of solar activity for the long-term forecast of foF2 (the critical frequency of the F2-layer). This advantage of the F₁₂ index becomes especially significant after 2000 if the specific features of extreme ultraviolet radiation of the Sun are additionally taken into account in the minima of solar cycles, using an appropriate correction to F₁₂. Qualitative arguments are given in favor of the use of F₁₂ for the long-term forecast of both foF2 and other ionospheric parameters.     

Variations in cosmic ray cutoff rigidities during the great geomagnetic storm of November 2004

A very strong interplanetary and magnetospheric disturbance observed on 7–13 November 2004 can be regarded as one of the strongest events during the entire period of space observations. In this paper we report on the studies of cosmic ray cutoff rigidity variations during 7–13 November 2004 showing how storm conditions can affect the direct cosmic ray access to the inner magnetosphere. Effective cutoff rigidities have been calculated for selected points on the ground by tracing trajectories of cosmic ray particles through the magnetospheric magnetic field of the “storm-oriented” Tsyganenko 2003 model. Cutoff rigidity variations have also been determined by the spectrographic global survey method on the basis of experimental data of the neutron monitor network. Relations between the calculated and experimental cutoff rigidities and the geomagnetic Dst-index and interplanetary parameters have been investigated. Correlation coefficients between the cutoff rigidities obtained by the trajectory tracing method and the spectrographic global survey method have been found to be in the limits 0.76–0.89 for all stations except the low-latitude station Tokyo (0.35). The most pronounced correlation has been revealed between the cutoff rigidities that exhibited a very large variation of ∼1–1.5 GV during the magnetic storm and the Dst index.     

Symmetry and asymmetry of ionospheric weather at magnetic conjugate points for two midlatitude observatories

Variations of the ionospheric weather W-index for two midlatitude observatories, namely, Grahamstown and Hermanus, and their conjugate counterpart locations in Africa are studied for a period from October 2010 to December 2011. The observatories are located in the longitude sector, which has consistent magnetic equator and geographic equator so that geomagnetic latitudes of the line of force are very close to the corresponding geographic latitudes providing opportunity to ignore the impact of the difference of the gravitational field and the geomagnetic field at the conjugate points on the ionosphere structure and dynamics. The ionosondes of Grahamstown and Hermanus provide data of the critical frequency (foF2), and Global Ionospheric Maps (GIM) provide the total electron content (TECgps) along the magnetic field line up to the conjugate point in the opposite hemisphere. The global model of the ionosphere, International Reference Ionosphere, extended to the plasmasphere altitude of 20,200 km (IRI-Plas) is used to deliver the F2 layer peak parameters from TECgps at the magnetic conjugate area. The evidence is obtained that the electron gas heated by day and cooled by night at the summer hemisphere as compared with the opposite features in the conjugate winter hemisphere testifies on a reversal of plasma fluxes along the magnetic field line by the solar terminator. The ionospheric weather W-index is derived from NmF2 (related with foF2) and TECgps data. It is found that symmetry of W-index behavior in the magnetic conjugate hemispheres is dominant for the equinoxes when plasma movement along the magnetic line of force is imposed on symmetrical background electron density and electron content. Asymmetry of the ionospheric storm effects is observed for solstices when the plasma diffuse down more slowly into the colder winter hemisphere than into the warmer summer hemisphere inducing either plasma increase (positive phase) or decrease (negative phase of W-index) in the ionospheric and plasmaspheric plasma density.     

Quality variation of GPS satellite clocks on-orbit using IGS clock products

Over 60% clocks on board of the GPS satellites are working longer than their designed life. Therefore realizing their stabilities in a long time scales is essential to GPS navigation and positioning plus IGS time scale maintaining. IGS clock products from 2001 to 2010 are used to analyze the GPS satellite clock qualities such as frequency stabilities and clock noise level. We find out that for the clocks of Block IIA satellites the frequency stabilities and clock noise are 10 times worse than that of the Block IIR and IIR-M satellites. Moreover, the linear relationships between frequency stabilities and clock residuals have been deduced with an accuracy of better than 0.02 ns. Specially, it is noticed that the clock of the PRN27 is instable and the relationship between the frequency stability and residuals is at least a quadratic curve. Therefore, we suggested that GPS satellite clocks should be weighted by their quality levels in application, and the observations of the Block IIA should not be used for real-time positioning which required precision better than one meter.