Solar flare forecasting model supported with artificial neural network techniques

Nowadays operational models for solar activity forecasting are still based on the statistical relationship between solar activity and solar magnetic field evolution. In order to set up this relationship, many parameters have been proposed to be the measures. Conventional measures are based on the sunspot group classification which provides limited information from sunspots. For this reason, new measures based on solar magnetic field observations are proposed and a solar flare forecasting model supported with an artificial neural network is introduced. This model is equivalent to a person with a long period of solar flare forecasting experience.     

Results from the ESA SREM monitors and comparison with existing radiation belt models

The Standard Radiation Environment Monitor (SREM) is a simple particle detector developed for wide application on ESA satellites. It measures high-energy protons and electrons of the space environment with a 20° angular resolution and limited spectral information. Of the ten SREMs that have been manufactured, four have so far flown. The first model on STRV-1c functioned well until an early spacecraft failure. The other three are on-board, the ESA spacecraft INTEGRAL, ROSETTA and PROBA-1. Another model is flying on GIOVE-B, launched in April 2008 with three L-2 science missions to follow: both Herschel and Planck in 2008, and GAIA in 2011). The diverse orbits of these spacecraft and the common calibration of the monitors provides a unique dataset covering a wide range of B-L* space, providing a direct comparison of the radiation levels in the belts at different locations, and the effects of geomagnetic shielding. Data from the PROBA/SREM and INTEGRAL/IREM are compared with existing radiation belt models.     

Current status and future plans for the general antiparticle spectrometer (GAPS)

We discuss current progress and future plans for the general antiparticle spectrometer experiment (GAPS). GAPS detects antideuterons through the X-rays and pions emitted during the deexcitation of exotic atoms formed when the antideuterons are slowed down and stopped in targets. GAPS provides an exceptionally sensitive means to detect cosmic-ray antideuterons. Cosmic-ray antideuterons can provide indirect evidence for the existence of dark matter in such form as neutralinos or Kaluza–Klein particles. We describe results of accelerator testing of GAPS prototypes, tentative design concepts for a flight GAPS detector, and near-term plans for flying a GAPS prototype on a balloon.     

Prototype design and testing of a Venus long duration,high altitude balloon

This paper describes the design, fabrication and testing of a full scale prototype balloon intended for long duration flight in the upper atmosphere of Venus. The balloon is 5.5 m in diameter and is designed to carry a 45 kg payload at an altitude of 55 km. The balloon material is a 180 g/m² multi-component laminate comprised of the following layers bonded together from outside to inside: aluminized Teflon film, aluminized Mylar film, Vectran fabric and a polyurethane coating. This construction provides the required balloon functional characteristics of low gas permeability, sulfuric acid resistance and high strength for superpressure operation. The design burst superpressure is 39,200 Pa which is predicted to be 3.3 times the worst case value expected during flight at the highest solar irradiance in the mission profile. The prototype is constructed from 16 gores with bi-taped seams employing a sulfuric acid resistant adhesive on the outside. Material coupon tests were performed to evaluate the optical and mechanical characteristics of the laminate. These were followed by full prototype tests for inflation, leakage and sulfuric acid tolerance. The results confirmed the suitability of this balloon design for use at Venus in a long duration mission. The various data are presented and the implications for mission design and operation are discussed.     

Mathematical description of the NaK model for MASTER-2005

The release of NaK droplets has been modeled for the new version of the European Meteoroid and Space Debris Terrestrial Environment Reference model MASTER-2005. Previously published versions of the model have been revised. The parameters of the model are introduced and discussed. NaK droplets consist of eutectic sodium–potassium alloy and have been released during RORSAT reactor core ejections. They contributed to the space debris environment in the centimeter and millimeter size regime. Sixteen nuclear powered RORSATs launched between 1980 and 1988 activated a reactor core ejection system in Sufficiently High Orbits (SHO), mostly between 900 and 950 km altitude. The core ejection caused an opening of the primary coolant circuit. The liquid coolant has been released into space during these core ejections. The outflow is considered as a discrete event for each of the sixteen core ejections in total. The NaK coolant has been forming droplets up to a diameter of 5.5 cm. NaK releases are restricted to a very narrow region near 65° inclination. This paper gives the parameters of the NaK release model as it is implemented in MASTER-2005. The quantitative values of all model parameters including characteristic diameter and uniformity parameter are presented. The ratio of the characteristic droplet size to the orifice diameter is discussed. It is estimated that altogether 128 kg of NaK-78 (8 kg per RORSAT) was released on orbit. Simulation runs show that there are still 45,000 droplets with a total mass of 97 kg in orbit at the reference epoch 1 May 2005, whereas the smallest droplet has a diameter of 5 mm. Results of orbit propagation simulation runs are presented in terms of spatial density.     

Investigation of natural and artificial stimulation of the ionospheric Alfvén resonator at high latitude

A brief review is provided of recent progress in understanding the ionospheric Alfvén resonator (IAR) at high latitude. Firstly, naturally occurring resonances of the IAR as detected by pulsation magnetometers in the auroral zone at Sodankylä and in the polar cap at Barentsburg are considered. The characteristics of the IAR in the two regions are broadly similar, although the effects of solar illumination are less clear at the higher latitudes. Secondly we review recent attempts to stimulate the IAR through high-power radio frequency experiments both in the auroral zone at Tromsø with the European Incoherent SCATter (EISCAT) heater, and within the polar cap at Longyearbyen with the Space Plasma Exploration by Active Radar (SPEAR) facility. In the auroral zone at, Tromsø the stimulated IAR has been observed by ground-based magnetometers, and through electron acceleration observed on the FAST spacecraft. At SPEAR in the polar cap, the stimulated IAR has been investigated, with ground magnetometers, with the first results indicative of a positive detection.     

Dynamics of a spacecraft and normalization around Lagrangian points in the Neptune–Triton system

The problem of a spacecraft orbiting the Neptune–Triton system is presented. The new ingredients in this restricted three body problem are the Neptune oblateness and the high inclined and retrograde motion of Triton. First we present some interesting simulations showing the role played by the oblateness on a Neptune’s satellite, disturbed by Triton. We also give an extensive numerical exploration in the case when the spacecraft orbits Triton, considering Sun, Neptune and its planetary oblateness as disturbers. In the plane a × I (a = semi-major axis, I = inclination), we give a plot of the stable regions where the massless body can survive for thousand of years. Retrograde and direct orbits were considered and as usual, the region of stability is much more significant for the case of direct orbit of the spacecraft (Triton’s orbit is retrograde). Next we explore the dynamics in a vicinity of the Lagrangian points. The Birkhoff normalization is constructed around L₂, followed by its reduction to the center manifold. In this reduced dynamics, a convenient Poincaré section shows the interplay of the Lyapunov and halo periodic orbits, Lissajous and quasi-halo tori as well as the stable and unstable manifolds of the planar Lyapunov orbit. To show the effect of the oblateness, the planar Lyapunov family emanating from the Lagrangian points and three-dimensional halo orbits are obtained by the numerical continuation method.     

Cosmic ray acceleration by supernova shocks

We analyse the results of recent measurements of nonthermal emission from individual supernova remnants (SNRs) and their correspondence to the nonlinear kinetic theory of cosmic ray (CR) acceleration in SNRs. It is shown that the theory fits these data in a satisfactory way and provides the strong evidences for the efficient CR production in SNRs accompanied by significant magnetic field amplification. Magnetic field amplification leads to considerable increase of CR maximum energy so that the spectrum of CRs accelerated in SNRs is consistent with the requirements for the formation of Galactic CR spectrum up to the energy ∼10¹⁷ eV.     

Biogenerated Rock Structures

Earth as a planet under firm control of life processes since more than 3 Ga has evolved global biogeochemical cycles, biogeomorphogenetic processes and structures also called plates or global tectonics including global climate and movement of water masses. These processes have deep impact on the shape and thickness of continental land masses as well as the chemistry and mineralogy of the crust and upper mantle. Biogenerated rock structures in this sense can be visualised through the analysis of sedimentary rock structures exhibiting e.g., biogenerated stromatolites, onkolites, oolites or cementing structures of sandstones which clearly preserve biochemical processes and biophysical structures. Further the chemical composition including the segregation of mineral layers, ore deposits, sedimentary and metamorphic rocks and granites hint to sun powered energy storage (gas, gas hydrates, hydrocarbons, coal) and tectonic processes initiated or at least modified through the enormous input of external energy through reduced carbon and iron compounds. One can state with considerable reliability that a planet under control of life must exhibit rock chemistry, mineralogy and structures typical for the impact of life on the geodynamic cycles. This includes the idea of top-down geotectonics instead of bottom-up processes.