Power law distribution in statistics of failures in operation of spacecraft onboard equipment

The possibility of using the statistics of recurrence time for extreme events is studied in this paper having in mind the problems of control and prediction of failures in spacecraft operation. The information about failures onboard satellites of various types presented by the US National Geophysical Data Center was analyzed. It was found that the probability density of recurrence intervals followed a power law of the Pareto type with an index equal to 2.3. The obtained result is consistent both with the theory of normal catastrophes and with the principle of self-organization of criticality for metastable active heterogeneous environment. A practical consequence of the obtained result consists in the fact that predictions of these extreme events should not rely on traditional models with the second-order Pearson statistics. To make predictions, the models are necessary that take into account the power law distribution of recurrence intervals for failures on satellites. The failures should be considered in these models as extreme events connected with manifestation of the space environment factors.     

Simple Expressions for Determining Radar Detection Thresholds

The threshold value required to obtain a specified false-alarm probability, when postdetection integration follows a square-law or an envelope detector, is frequently needed in theoretical and practical studies of radar signal processor performance. The determination of such threshold values requires a substantial numerical computational effort. In this correspondence, simple expressions are presented with which these thresholds can be determined with excellent accuracy using only a scientific calculator.     

CME Disturbance Forecasting

CME disturbances at Earth arise from the sheath that arrives in front of the ICME and from the ICME itself. The geoeffective environment is qualitatively different in the sheath than within the ICME. Consequently two types of forecast procedures using solar observations of phenomena associated with the release of the CME as input parameters have been developed to treat the two types of environment. This chapter surveys efforts that have resulted in implementable (at least in principle) forecast algorithms for sheath and ICME disturbances and discusses uncertainties associated with both.     

Radial and latitudinal gradients of galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere at solar maximum

Our understanding of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) modulation has advanced greatly in the last three decades. However, we still need an appropriate knowledge of the GCR intensity gradient. Numerical simulations of the transport particle equation allow interpretation of cosmic ray intensities in the heliosphere. We use the numerical solution of the GCR transport equation during solar maximum epoch to compute the radial and latitudinal gradients. Our analysis indicates that adiabatic energy loss plays an important role in the radial distribution of GCR in the inner heliosphere, while in the outer region the diffusion and convection are the relevant processes. The latitudinal gradient is small.     

Ultraviolet images of galaxies from the Optical Monitor on XMM-Newton

A large number of galaxies, both normal and active, have been observed in ultraviolet light by the Optical Monitor on XMM-Newton. These are some of the deepest wide-field ultraviolet images of these galaxies yet obtained, and in many cases the first collected in this waveband. We present images of five active galaxies, and discuss the potential uses of the ultraviolet surface brightness distribution and morphology, in association with X-ray data, for Active Galactic Nuclei, star formation and galaxy evolution studies.     

Asteroid and comet hazard: Identification problem of observed space objects with the parental bodies

This article focuses on the genetic identification of observed small cosmic bodies with alleged parental bodies; namely, comets, asteroids and meteoroid swarms. There is a problem of the upper D-value limit as a measure of proximity between the orbits of the bodies in the five-dimensional phase space (Southworth and Hawkins, 1963). In the study of genetic relationships of the comet and meteor complexes, the D value is usually taken as equal to 0.2 for all meteor showers. However, the upper D limit should be investigated for each meteoroid complex. For example, such investigation was performed for the Taurid meteor complex (Porub?an et al., 2006). In this paper, the upper D-criterion limit value was investigated for the Perseid meteor shower. The 1862 III Swift–Tuttle comet is its parental comet.