Real time localization of gamma ray bursts with INTEGRAL

The INTEGRAL satellite has been successfully launched in October 2002 and has recently started its operational phase. The INTEGRAL burst alert system (IBAS) will distribute in real time the coordinates of the gamma ray bursts (GRBs) detected with INTEGRAL. After a brief introduction on the INTEGRAL instruments, we describe the main IBAS characteristics and report on the initial results. During the initial performance and verification phase of the INTEGRAL mission, which lasted about two months, two GRBs have been localized with accuracy of 2–4 arcmin. These observations have allowed us to validate the IBAS software, which is now expected to provide quick (few seconds delay) and precise (few arcmin) localization for 10–15 GRBs per year.     

Measuring the matter distribution within z = 0.2 cluster lenses with XMM-Newton

We present an analysis of seven clusters observed by XMM-Newton as part of our survey of 17 most X-ray luminous clusters of galaxies at z  0.2 selected for a comprehensive and unbiased study of the mass distribution in massive clusters. Using the public software FTOOLS and XMMSAS we have set up an automated pipeline to reduce the EPIC MOS and pn spectro-imaging data, optimized for extended sources analysis. We also developped a code to perform intensive spectral and imaging analysis particularly focussing on proper background estimate and removal. XMM-Newton deep spectro-imaging of these clusters allowed us to fit a standard β-model to their gas emission profiles as well as a standard MEKAL emission model to their extracted spectra, and test their inferred characteristics against already calibrated relations.     

Annual solar UV exposure and biological effective dose rates on the Martian surface.

The ultraviolet (UV) environment of Mars has been investigated to gain an understanding of the variation of exposure throughout a Martian year, and link this flux to biological effects and possible survival of organisms at the Martian surface. To gain an idea of how the solar UV radiation varies between different regions, including planned landing sites of two future Mars surface missions, we modelled the total solar UV surface flux throughout one Martian year for two different dust scenarios. To understand the degree of solar UV stress on micro-organisms and/or molecules essential for life on the surface of Mars, we also calculated the biologically effective dose (BED) for T7 and Uracil in relevant wavelength regions at the Martian surface as a function of season and latitude, and discuss the biological survival rates in the presence of Martian solar UV radiation. High T7/Uracil BED ratios indicate that even at high latitudes where the UV flux is significantly reduced, the radiation environment is still hostile for life due to the persisting UV-C component of the flux.     

Uncertainties in estimates of the risks of late effects from space radiation.

Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Using the linear-additivity model for radiation risks, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain an estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including a deep space outpost and Mars missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, e.g., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well-defined confidence limits.     

Sunspot cycle 23 descent to an unusual minimum and forecasts for cycle 24 activity

The decay phase of the sunspot cycle 23 exhibited two unusual features. First, it lasted too long. Second, the interplanetary magnetic field intensity at earth orbit reached the lowest value since in situ measurements in space began in October 1963. These physical anomalies significantly altered the early forecasts for the sunspot activity parameters for cycle 24, made by several colleagues. We note that there was a significant change in the solar behavior during cycle 22. We discuss the observed trends and their effect on our empirical solar activity forecast technique, leading to our prediction for cycle 24 parameters; cycle 24 will be only half as active as cycle 23, reaching its peak in May 2013. We speculate on the possible implications of this outcome on future earth climate change and the ensuing socio-economic consequences.     

Quantifying the role of solar radiative forcing over the 20th century

The 20th century temperature anomaly record is reproduced using an energy balance model, with a diffusive deep ocean. The model takes into account all the standard radiative forcings, and in addition the possibility of a non-thermal solar component. The model is parameterized and then optimized to produce the most likely values for the climate parameters and radiative forcings which reproduce the 20th century global warming. We find that the best fit is obtained with a negligible net feedback. We also show that a non-thermal solar component is necessarily present, indicating that the total solar contribution to the 20th century global warming, of ΔT_solar = 0.27 ± 0.07 °C, is much larger than can be expected from variation in the total solar irradiance alone. However, we also find that the largest contribution to the 20th century warming comes from anthropogenic sources, with ΔT_man = 0.42 ± 0.11 °C.     

Probing the first stars and black holes in the early Universe with the Dark Ages Radio Explorer (DARE)

A concept for a new space-based cosmology mission called the Dark Ages Radio Explorer (DARE) is presented in this paper. DARE’s science objectives include: (1) When did the first stars form? (2) When did the first accreting black holes form? (3) When did Reionization begin? (4) What surprises does the end of the Dark Ages hold (e.g., Dark Matter decay)? DARE will use the highly-redshifted hyperfine 21-cm transition from neutral hydrogen to track the formation of the first luminous objects by their impact on the intergalactic medium during the end of the Dark Ages and during Cosmic Dawn (redshifts z = 11–35). It will measure the sky-averaged spin temperature of neutral hydrogen at the unexplored epoch 80–420 million years after the Big Bang, providing the first evidence of the earliest stars and galaxies to illuminate the cosmos and testing our models of galaxy formation. DARE’s approach is to measure the expected spectral features in the sky-averaged, redshifted 21-cm signal over a radio bandpass of 40–120 MHz. DARE orbits the Moon for a mission lifetime of 3 years and takes data above the lunar farside, the only location in the inner solar system proven to be free of human-generated radio frequency interference and any significant ionosphere. The science instrument is composed of a low frequency radiometer, including electrically-short, tapered, bi-conical dipole antennas, a receiver, and a digital spectrometer. The smooth frequency response of the antennas and the differential spectral calibration approach using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique will be applied to detect the weak cosmic 21-cm signal in the presence of the intense solar system and Galactic foreground emissions.     

Ionospheric response of equatorial and low latitude F-region during the intense geomagnetic storm on 24–25 August 2005

In this investigation, we present and discuss the response of the ionospheric F-region in the South American and East Asian sectors during an intense geomagnetic storm in August 2005. The geomagnetic storm studied reached a minimum Dst of −216 nT at 12:00 UT on 24 August. In this work ionospheric sounding data obtained of 24, 25, and 26 August 2005 at Palmas (PAL; 10.2° S, 48.2° W; dip latitude 6.6° S), São José dos Campos (SJC, 23.2° S, 45.9° W; dip latitude 17.6° S), Brazil, Ho Chi Minh City, (HCM; 10.5° N, 106.3° E; dip latitude 2.9° N), Vietnam, Okinawa (OKI; 26.3° N, 127.8° E; dip latitude 21.2° N), Japan, are presented. Also, the GPS observations obtained at different stations in the equatorial and low-latitude regions in the Brazilian sector are presented. On the night of 24–25 August 2005, the h′F variations show traveling ionospheric disturbances associated with Joule heating in the auroral zone from SJC to PAL. The foF2 variations show a positive storm phase on the night of 24–25 August at PAL and SJC during the recovery phase. Also, the GPS-VTEC observations at several stations in the Brazilian sector show a fairly similar positive storm phase on 24 August. During the fast decrease of Dst (between 10:00 and 11:00 UT) on 24 August, there is a prompt penetration of electric field of magnetospheric origin that result in abrupt increase (∼12:00 UT) in foF2 at PAL, SJC (Brazil) and OKI (Japan) and in VTEC at IMPZ, BOMJ, PARA and SMAR (Brazil). OKI showed strong oscillations of the F-region on the night 24 August resulted to the propagation of traveling atmospheric disturbances (TADs) by Joule heating in the auroral region. These effects result a strong positive observed at OKI station. During the daytime on 25 August, in the recovery phase, the foF2 observations showed positive ionospheric storm at HCM station. Some differences in the latitudinal response of the F-region is also observed in the South American and East Asian sectors.     

Seasonal-to-interannual variability of chlorophyll-a bloom timing associated with physical forcing in the Gulf of Cádiz

Seasonal-to-interannual variability of the winter-spring bloom in the Gulf of Cádiz, eastern North Atlantic, has been investigated using chlorophyll-a remote sensing (CHL). These data have been obtained from the GlobColour project; the temporal coverage extends from September 1997 to December 2010. In this study we develop a generic quantitative approach for describing the temporal variability in the shape of the winter-spring bloom within a region. Variability in both the timing and magnitude of the bloom in the basin has been evaluated as a function of physical properties in the water column such as Mixed Layer Depth (MLD, GODAS model), sea surface temperature (SST, from AVHRR radiometers), photosynthetically-active radiation (PAR, from ocean color data) and euphotic depth (Z_eu, from ocean color data). The analysis indicated that the timing, size and duration of the phytoplankton bloom in this area are largely controlled by both meteorological and oceanographic conditions at different scales; this means that it is likely to vary widely from one year to another.     

GNSS-R concept extended by a fine orbit tuning

Small changes in semimajor axis of the orbits selected for the GNSS-R [R as Reflectometry] satellites, so-called fine orbit tuning, known from the ESA’s Gravity and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer mission, can dramatically increase the number of nadir and off-nadir reflecting points and, in turn, can enhance the capability of the concept of bistatic altimetry (GNSS Reflectometry) without additional costs. The application of our suggestion is feasible for a satellite which will be equipped by thrusters for the orbit keeping. During the mission lifetime several orbit tunings are feasible, just to transfer from one to another orbit. Then we can study short-periodic or longer-periodic features, according to scientific goals defined for the mission. The shortest cycles (few days), corresponding to the required revisit time (defined by ESA), may be subcycles of much longer cycles (repeat periods).