An empirical approach to predicting the key parameters for a sunspot number cycle

The common methodologies used to predict the smooth sunspot number (SSN) at peak (Rmax) and the rise time (Tr) for a cycle are noted. The estimates based on geomagnetic precursors give the best prediction of Rmax for five SSN cycles (20–24). In particular, an empirical technique invoking three-cycle quasi-periodicity (TCQP) in Ap index has made accurate predictions of Rmax and Tr for two consecutive SSN cycles (23 and 24). The dynamo theories are unable to account for TCQP. If it endures in the 21st century the Sun shall enter a Dalton-like grand minimum. It was a period of global cooling. The current status of the ascending phase of cycle 24 is described and the delayed reversal of the solar polar field reversal in the southern hemisphere in September 2013 is noted.     

Fractional order tension control for stable and fast tethered satellite retrieval

The retrieval of a tethered satellite system is intrinsically unstable. This paper develops a new control strategy to retrieve the tethered satellite system stably and quickly using the fractional order control theory. The governing equation of the tethered satellite system and classic linear feedback tension control law were first reviewed and examined as a benchmark. Then, a new fractional order tension control law has been to avoid the tethered satellite winds around the main satellite near the end of retrieval by existing integer order tension control laws. The newly proposed control law has been discretized and implemented by the Laplace transform and Tustin operator. Unlike the existing integer order control laws, which are based on the feedback of current state and memoryless, the fractional order control law has the memory of previous states and thus controls the tether retrieval more smoothly while maintaining the retrieving speed. The effectiveness and advantage of the new fractional order tension control law is demonstrated numerically by comparing with its integer order counterpart. The results show that the new control law not only retrieves the subsatellite without winding around the main satellite, but also provides a better control performance with smaller in-plane libration angles.     

The Big Pine Creek watershed and climate change: A trend analysis of Landsat surface reflectance and PRISM datasets over the last 3 decades

Recent variations in normal meteorological conditions indicate the earth’s climate is changing in ways that may impact delicate ecological balances in sensitive regions. Identifying how those changes are affecting the biosphere is essential if we are going to be able to adapt to those changes and to potentially mitigate their harmful consequences. This paper presents a time series study of an alpine ecosystem in the Big Pine Creek watershed in California’s Eastern Sierra Nevada Mountain’s. Raw Landsat data covering the years 1984 through 2011 is converted to observed surface reflectance and analyzed for trends that would indicate a change in the ecosystem. We found that over the time period of the study, observed surface reflectance shows a general decline across the spectrum while our analysis of environmental data demonstrates statistically significant increases in temperatures. While declining reflectance in the visible and short wave bands are indicators of increased surface cover, the fact that the IR band also shows declines is consistent with a decline in tree density. This study provides a useful insight into the ecological response of the Big Pine Creek watershed to recent climate change. These findings suggest that alpine ecosystems are particularly sensitive to increasing temperatures. If these results are replicated in other alpine watersheds it will demonstrate that the biosphere is already showing the effects of a warmer environment.     

Nonlinear bending-torsion flutter experiments of a medium-aspect-ratio flexible wing model

In this research a two-motion medium-aspect-ratio straight flexible wing model was tested. Tests with the wing model were conducted in the subsonic wind tunnel of the Faculty of Aerospace Engineering at the Technion, Israel. Experimental results obtained for flutter and Limit Cycle Oscillations (LCO) of the wing model are presented. At least two types of flutter and postflutter LCO have been observed. Both types were characterized by coupling between the torsional and bending modes. The first type flutter was associated with coupling of the first bending and first torsional modes, whereas the second type was observed for coupling of the first torsional and second bending modes.     

Decadal variability of tropical Pacific temperature in relation to solar cycles

We use the 8-year long satellite temperature data (2002–2010) from Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) and Atmospheric Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) on the Aqua satellite to identify temperature trends in the troposphere and low stratosphere over the Niño 3.4 region of the Tropical Pacific Ocean in the most recent 11-year solar cycle. Employing more extended sea surface temperature (SST) data for five solar cycles (1950–2009) in this region we show that the satellite trends reflect a typical decrease of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Niño 3.4 region in the declining phase of the solar cycle. The magnitude of the SST decrease depends on the solar cycle and ranges between 0.07 K/yr and 0.27 K/yr for the last five solar cycles.     

A point-wise least squares spectral analysis (LSSA) of the Caspian Sea level fluctuations,using TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason-1 observations

The Caspian Sea has displayed considerable fluctuations in its water level during the past century. Knowledge of such fluctuation is vital for understanding the local hydrological cycles, climate of the region, and construction activities within the sea and along its shorelines. This study established a point-wise satellite altimetry approach to monitor the fluctuations of the Caspian Sea using a complete dataset of TOPEX/Poseidon for the period 1993 to the middle of 2002, and its follow-on Jason-1 for the period 2002 to August 2009. Therefore, 280 virtual time-series were constructed to monitor the fluctuations. The least squares spectral analysis (LSSA) method is, then employed to find the most significant frequencies of the time-series, while the statistical method of principle component analysis (PCA) is applied to extract the dominant variability of level variations. The study also used the observations of TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason-1 over the Volga River along with 5 years of Volga’s water discharge to study its influence on the Caspian Sea level changes. The LSSA results indicate that the lunar semidiurnal (M2) and the Sun semidiurnal (S2) frequencies are the main tidal frequencies of the Caspian Sea with the mean amplitude of 4.2 and 2.8 cm, respectively. A statistically significant long-term frequency (12.5-years period) is also found from altimetry and tide gauge observations. A phase lag, related to the inter-annual frequencies of the Volga River was detected from the point-wise time-series showing level propagation from the northwest to the southeast of the sea. The cross-correlation between the power spectrum of Volga and that of the northern-most, middle, and southern-most points within the Caspian Sea were respectively 0.63, 0.51 and 0.4 of zero-lag correlation, corroborating the influence of the Volga River. The result of PCA also shows that different parts of the Caspian Sea exhibit different amplitudes of level variations, indicating that the point-wise approach, when employing all available satellite measurements could be a suitable method for a preliminary monitoring of this inland water resource as it gives accurate local fluctuations.     

Mercury Ion Analyzer (MIA) onboard Mercury Magnetospheric Orbiter: MMO

The Mercury Magnetopsheric Orbiter (MMO) is one of the spacecraft of the BepiColombo mission; the mission is scheduled for launch in 2014 and plans to revisit Mercury with modern instrumentation. MMO is to elucidate the detailed plasma structure and dynamics around Mercury, one of the least-explored planets in our solar system. The Mercury Plasma Particle Experiment (MPPE) on board MMO is a comprehensive instrument package for plasma, high-energy particle, and energetic neutral particle atom measurements. The Mercury Ion Analyzer (MIA) is one of the plasma instruments of MPPE, and measures the three dimensional velocity distribution of low-energy ions (from 5 eV to 30 keV) by using a top-hat electrostatic analyzer for half a spin period (2 s). By combining both the mechanical and electrical sensitivity controls, MIA has a wide dynamic range of count rates for the proton flux expected around Mercury, which ranges from 10⁶ to 10¹² cm⁻² s⁻¹ str⁻¹ keV⁻¹, in the solar wind between 0.3 and 0.47 AU from the sun, and in both the hot and cold plasma sheet of Mercury’s magnetosphere. The geometrical factor of MIA is variable, ranging from 1.0 × 10⁻⁷ cm² str keV/keV for large fluxes of solar wind ions to 4.7 × 10⁻⁴ cm² str keV/keV for small fluxes of magnetospheric ions. The entrance grid used for the mechanical sensitivity control of incident ions also work to significantly reduce the contamination of solar UV radiation, whose intensity is about 10 times larger than that around Earth’s orbit.     

Method for the annular gas-liquid mixture flow regime in a vertical cylindrical channel

A mathematical model for the annular gas-liquid mixture flow in the cylindrical channel is described. The influence of an upward turbulent gas flow on the downward liquid film is considered. The problem is numerically solved and the calculation results are compared with the experimental data.     

Subsurface filamentous fabrics: an evaluation of origins based on morphological and geochemical criteria, with implications for exopaleontology

The fossil record of the subsurface biosphere is sparse. Results obtained on subsurface filamentous fabrics (SFF) from >225 paleosubsurface sites in volcanics, oxidized ores, and paleokarst of subrecent to Proterozoic age are presented. SFF are mineral encrustations on filamentous or fibrous substrates that formed in subsurface environments. SFF occur in association with low-temperature aqueous mineral assemblages and consist of tubular, micron-thick (median 1.6 micron) filaments in high spatial density, which occur as irregular masses, matted fabrics, and vertically draped features that resemble stalactites. Micron-sized filamentous centers rule out a stalactitic origin. Morphometric analysis of SFF filamentous forms demonstrates that their shape more closely resembles microbial filaments than fibrous minerals. Abiogenic filament-like forms are considered unlikely precursors of most SFF, because abiogenic forms differ in the distribution of widths and have a lower degree of curvature and a lower number of direction changes. Elemental analyses of SFF show depletion in immobile elements (e.g., Al, Th) and a systematic enrichment in As and Sb, which demonstrates a relation to environments with high flows of water. Sulfur isotopic analyses are consistent with a biological origin of a SFF sample from a Mississippi Valley-Type deposit, which is consistent with data in the literature. Fe isotopes in SFF and active analogue systems, however, allow no discrimination between biogenic and abiogenic origins. The origin of most SFF is explained as permineralized remains of microbial filaments that possibly record rapid growth during phases of high water flow that released chemical energy. It is possible that some SFF formed due to encrustation of mineral fibers. SFF share similarities with Microcodium from soil environments. SFF are a logical target in the search for past life on Mars. The macroscopic nature of many SFF allows for their relatively easy in situ recognition and targeting for more detailed microstructural and geochemical analysis.     

The Dynamic Albedo of Neutrons (DAN) experiment for NASA's 2009 Mars Science Laboratory

We present a summary of the physical principles and design of the Dynamic Albedo of Neutrons (DAN) instrument onboard NASA's 2009 Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission. The DAN instrument will use the method of neutron-neutron activation analysis in a space application to study the abundance and depth distribution of water in the martian subsurface along the path of the MSL rover.