Quantifying the role of solar radiative forcing over the 20th century

The 20th century temperature anomaly record is reproduced using an energy balance model, with a diffusive deep ocean. The model takes into account all the standard radiative forcings, and in addition the possibility of a non-thermal solar component. The model is parameterized and then optimized to produce the most likely values for the climate parameters and radiative forcings which reproduce the 20th century global warming. We find that the best fit is obtained with a negligible net feedback. We also show that a non-thermal solar component is necessarily present, indicating that the total solar contribution to the 20th century global warming, of ΔT_solar = 0.27 ± 0.07 °C, is much larger than can be expected from variation in the total solar irradiance alone. However, we also find that the largest contribution to the 20th century warming comes from anthropogenic sources, with ΔT_man = 0.42 ± 0.11 °C.     

Probing the first stars and black holes in the early Universe with the Dark Ages Radio Explorer (DARE)

A concept for a new space-based cosmology mission called the Dark Ages Radio Explorer (DARE) is presented in this paper. DARE’s science objectives include: (1) When did the first stars form? (2) When did the first accreting black holes form? (3) When did Reionization begin? (4) What surprises does the end of the Dark Ages hold (e.g., Dark Matter decay)? DARE will use the highly-redshifted hyperfine 21-cm transition from neutral hydrogen to track the formation of the first luminous objects by their impact on the intergalactic medium during the end of the Dark Ages and during Cosmic Dawn (redshifts z = 11–35). It will measure the sky-averaged spin temperature of neutral hydrogen at the unexplored epoch 80–420 million years after the Big Bang, providing the first evidence of the earliest stars and galaxies to illuminate the cosmos and testing our models of galaxy formation. DARE’s approach is to measure the expected spectral features in the sky-averaged, redshifted 21-cm signal over a radio bandpass of 40–120 MHz. DARE orbits the Moon for a mission lifetime of 3 years and takes data above the lunar farside, the only location in the inner solar system proven to be free of human-generated radio frequency interference and any significant ionosphere. The science instrument is composed of a low frequency radiometer, including electrically-short, tapered, bi-conical dipole antennas, a receiver, and a digital spectrometer. The smooth frequency response of the antennas and the differential spectral calibration approach using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique will be applied to detect the weak cosmic 21-cm signal in the presence of the intense solar system and Galactic foreground emissions.     

Ionospheric response of equatorial and low latitude F-region during the intense geomagnetic storm on 24–25 August 2005

In this investigation, we present and discuss the response of the ionospheric F-region in the South American and East Asian sectors during an intense geomagnetic storm in August 2005. The geomagnetic storm studied reached a minimum Dst of −216 nT at 12:00 UT on 24 August. In this work ionospheric sounding data obtained of 24, 25, and 26 August 2005 at Palmas (PAL; 10.2° S, 48.2° W; dip latitude 6.6° S), São José dos Campos (SJC, 23.2° S, 45.9° W; dip latitude 17.6° S), Brazil, Ho Chi Minh City, (HCM; 10.5° N, 106.3° E; dip latitude 2.9° N), Vietnam, Okinawa (OKI; 26.3° N, 127.8° E; dip latitude 21.2° N), Japan, are presented. Also, the GPS observations obtained at different stations in the equatorial and low-latitude regions in the Brazilian sector are presented. On the night of 24–25 August 2005, the h′F variations show traveling ionospheric disturbances associated with Joule heating in the auroral zone from SJC to PAL. The foF2 variations show a positive storm phase on the night of 24–25 August at PAL and SJC during the recovery phase. Also, the GPS-VTEC observations at several stations in the Brazilian sector show a fairly similar positive storm phase on 24 August. During the fast decrease of Dst (between 10:00 and 11:00 UT) on 24 August, there is a prompt penetration of electric field of magnetospheric origin that result in abrupt increase (∼12:00 UT) in foF2 at PAL, SJC (Brazil) and OKI (Japan) and in VTEC at IMPZ, BOMJ, PARA and SMAR (Brazil). OKI showed strong oscillations of the F-region on the night 24 August resulted to the propagation of traveling atmospheric disturbances (TADs) by Joule heating in the auroral region. These effects result a strong positive observed at OKI station. During the daytime on 25 August, in the recovery phase, the foF2 observations showed positive ionospheric storm at HCM station. Some differences in the latitudinal response of the F-region is also observed in the South American and East Asian sectors.     

Seasonal-to-interannual variability of chlorophyll-a bloom timing associated with physical forcing in the Gulf of Cádiz

Seasonal-to-interannual variability of the winter-spring bloom in the Gulf of Cádiz, eastern North Atlantic, has been investigated using chlorophyll-a remote sensing (CHL). These data have been obtained from the GlobColour project; the temporal coverage extends from September 1997 to December 2010. In this study we develop a generic quantitative approach for describing the temporal variability in the shape of the winter-spring bloom within a region. Variability in both the timing and magnitude of the bloom in the basin has been evaluated as a function of physical properties in the water column such as Mixed Layer Depth (MLD, GODAS model), sea surface temperature (SST, from AVHRR radiometers), photosynthetically-active radiation (PAR, from ocean color data) and euphotic depth (Z_eu, from ocean color data). The analysis indicated that the timing, size and duration of the phytoplankton bloom in this area are largely controlled by both meteorological and oceanographic conditions at different scales; this means that it is likely to vary widely from one year to another.     

GNSS-R concept extended by a fine orbit tuning

Small changes in semimajor axis of the orbits selected for the GNSS-R [R as Reflectometry] satellites, so-called fine orbit tuning, known from the ESA’s Gravity and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer mission, can dramatically increase the number of nadir and off-nadir reflecting points and, in turn, can enhance the capability of the concept of bistatic altimetry (GNSS Reflectometry) without additional costs. The application of our suggestion is feasible for a satellite which will be equipped by thrusters for the orbit keeping. During the mission lifetime several orbit tunings are feasible, just to transfer from one to another orbit. Then we can study short-periodic or longer-periodic features, according to scientific goals defined for the mission. The shortest cycles (few days), corresponding to the required revisit time (defined by ESA), may be subcycles of much longer cycles (repeat periods).     

OSIRIS-REx low-velocity particles during outbound cruise

We analyzed high-angular rate streaks first recorded by OSIRIS-REx’s MapCam during a 2017 search for Earth Trojan asteroids. We interpret them as water-ice particles that translated across the imager’s field of view, originating from the spacecraft itself. Their translation velocities approximated 0.1–1?m/s based on reasonable conclusions about their range. Pursuing several lines of investigation to seek a coherent hypothesis, we conclude that the episodic releases of the water ice particles are associated with spacecraft attitudes that resulted in solar illumination of previously shadowed regions. This correlation suggests that the OSIRIS-REx spacecraft itself possesses micro-climatic zones consisting of hot regions and cold traps that may temporarily potentially pass volatiles back and forth before losing most of them.     

How do interplanetary shock impact angles control the size of the geoeffective magnetosphere?

In this paper, we investigate temporal and spatial magnetosphere response to the impact of interplanetary (IP) shocks with different inclinations and speeds on the Earth’s magnetosphere. A data set with more than 500 IP shocks is used to identify positive sudden impulse (SI⁺) events as expressed by the SuperMAG partial ring current index. The SI⁺ rise time (RT), defined as the time interval between compression onset and maximum SI⁺ signature, is obtained for each event. We use RT and a model suggested by Takeuchi et al. (2002) to calculate the geoeffective magnetospheric distance (GMD) in the shock propagation direction as a function of shock impact angle and speed for each event. GMD is a generalization of the geoeffective magnetosphere length (GML) suggested by Takeuchi et al. (2002), defined from the subsolar point along the X line toward the tail. We estimate statistical GMD and GML values which are then reported for the first time. We also show that, similarly to well-known results for RT, the highest correlation coefficient for the GMD and impact angle is found for shocks with high speeds and small impact angles, and the faster and more frontal the shock, the smaller the GMD. This result indicates that the magnetospheric response depends heavily on shock impact angle. With these results, we argue that the prediction and forecasting of space weather events, such as those caused by coronal mass ejections, will not be accurately accomplished if the disturbances’ angles of impact are not considered as an important parameter within model and observation scheme capabilities.     

Comparison of Antarctic riometer radio wave absorption and THEMIS mission energetic electron fluxes

Simultaneous observations of in situ plasma properties in the tail of the Earth’s magnetosphere and of ground based instruments, lying on the same geomagnetic field lines, have recently proved to yield significant new results. In most cases magnetosphere ionosphere interactions during the night-time northern hemisphere conditions are studied. Here, observations of energetic electrons in the tail of the Earth’s magnetosphere made by the THEMIS mission satellites are compared with auroral radio wave absorption determined by riometers in the Antarctic for sunlit conditions. Days for which satellites and riometers are connected by the same geomagnetic field line are selected using a geomagnetic field model. The six days analysed show clear associations between fluxes and absorptions in some cases. However, these do not necessarily correspond to conjugacy intervals. Hours of positive associations are 1.65 times those for negative associations, all hours and days considered (1.42–3.6 on five days and 0.58 on the other day). These computations are assumed appropriate since the footprints of the satellites used approximately follow corrected geomagnetic parallels for all six days studied. The use of a finer parameterization of geomagnetic models to determine conjugacy may be needed.     

Refinements in the data analysis of VIRTIS-M-IR Venus nightside spectra

The successful long-duration radiation measurements performed by the VIRTIS instrument aboard ESA’s Venus Express spacecraft have provided an excellent collection of atmospheric and surface data that stand out due to their high temporal and spatial coverage of the planet and due to a high diversity of measurement and environmental conditions.     

Solar activity dependence of total electron content derived from GPS observations over Mbarara

Vertical total electron content (VTEC) observed at Mbarara (geographic co-ordinates: 0.60°S, 30.74°E; geomagnetic coordinates: 10.22°S, 102.36°E), Uganda, for the period 2001–2009 have been used to study the diurnal, seasonal and solar activity variations. The daily values of the 10.7 cm radio flux (F_10.7) and sunspot number (R) were used to represent Solar Extreme Ultraviolet Variability (EUV). VTEC is generally higher during high solar activity period for all the seasons and increases from 0600 h LT and reaches its maximum value within 1400 h–1500 h LT. All analysed linear and quadratic fits demonstrate positive VTEC-F_10.7 and positive VTEC-R correlation, with all fits at 0000 h and 1400 h LT being significant with a confidence level of 95% when both linear and quadratic models are used. All the fits at 0600 h LT are insignificant with a confidence level of 95%. Generally, over Mbarara, quadratic fit shows that VTEC saturates during all seasons for F_10.7 more than 200 units and R more than 150 units. The result of this study can be used to improve the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) prediction of TEC around the equatorial region of the African sector.