Technology readiness assessments: A retrospective

The development of new system capabilities typically depends upon the prior success of advanced technology research and development efforts. These systems developments inevitably face the three major challenges of any project: performance, schedule and budget. Done well, advanced technology programs can substantially reduce the uncertainty in all three of these dimensions of project management. Done poorly, or not at all, and new system developments suffer from cost overruns, schedule delays and the steady erosion of initial performance objectives. It is often critical for senior management to be able to determine which of these two paths is more likely—and to respond accordingly. The challenge for system and technology managers is to be able to make clear, well-documented assessments of technology readiness and risks, and to do so at key points in the life cycle of the program.In the mid 1970s, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) introduced the concept of “technology readiness levels” (TRLs) as a discipline-independent, programmatic figure of merit (FOM) to allow more effective assessment of, and communication regarding the maturity of new technologies. In 1995, the TRL scale was further strengthened by the articulation of the first definitions of each level, along with examples (J. Mankins, Technology readiness levels, A White Paper, NASA, Washington, DC, 1995. [1]). Since then, TRLs have been embraced by the U.S. Congress’ General Accountability Office (GAO), adopted by the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD), and are being considered for use by numerous other organizations. Overall, the TRLs have proved to be highly effective in communicating the status of new technologies among sometimes diverse organizations.This paper will review the concept of “technology readiness assessments”, and provide a retrospective on the history of “TRLs” during the past 30 years. The paper will conclude with observations concerning prospective future directions for the important discipline of technology readiness assessments.     

Solar UV irradiance variation during cycles 22 and 23

The Solar Ultraviolet Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SUSIM) aboard the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) has been measuring solar UV irradiances since October 1991, a period which includes the decline of solar cycle 22 followed by the rise of cycle 23. Daily solar measurements include scans over the wavelength range 115–410 nm at 1.1 nm resolution. As expected, the measured time series of UV irradiances exhibit strong periodicities in solar cycle and solar rotation. For all wavelengths, the UV irradiance time series are similar to that of the Mg II core-to-wing ratio. During solar cycle 22, the irradiance of the strong Ly- line varied by more than a factor of two. The peak-to-peak irradiance variation declined with increasing wavelength, reaching 10% just below the Al edge at 208 nm. Between the Al edge and 250 nm the variation was 6–7%. Above 250 nm, the variation declines further until none is observed above 290 nm. Preliminary results for the first portion of cycle 23 indicate that the far UV below the Al edge is rising at about the same rate as the Mg II index while the irradiances in the Ly- emission line and for wavelengths longer than the Al edge are rising more slowly — even after accounting for the lower level of activity of cycle 23.     

Solar maximum mission experiment: Ultraviolet spectroscopy and polarimetry on the solar maximum mission

We describe the Ultraviolet Spectrometer and Polarimeter (UVSP) on the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) spacecraft. The instrument, which operates in the wavelength range 1150 – 3600 Å, has a spatial resolution of 2–3 arc sec and a spectral resolution of 0.02 Å FWHM in second order. A Gregorian telescope, focal length 1.8 m, feeds a 1 m Ebert-Fastie spectrometer. A polarimeter comprising rotating Mg F₂ waveplates can be inserted behind the spectrometer entrance slit and allows all four Stokes parameters to be determined. The observing modes include rasters, spectral scans, velocity measurements, and polarimetry. Finally, we present examples of initial observations made since launch.     

Elemental Abundances in Coronal Structures

A great deal of evidence for elemental abundance variations among different structures in the solar corona has accumulated over the years. Many of the observations show changes in the relative abundances of high- and low-First Ionization Potential elements, but relatively few show the absolute elemental abundances. Recent observations from the SOHO satellite give absolute abundances in coronal streamers. Along the streamer edges, and at low heights in the streamer, they show roughly photospheric abundances for the low-FIP elements, and a factor of 3 depletion of high-FIP elements. In the streamer core at 1.5 R·, both high- and low-FIP elements are depleted by an additional factor of 3, which appears to result from gravitational settling. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Missions to Mercury

Mercury is a very difficult planet to observe from the Earth, and space missions that target Mercury are essential for a comprehensive understanding of the planet. At the same time, it is also difficult to orbit because it is deep inside the Sun’s gravitational well. Only one mission has visited Mercury; that was Mariner 10 in the 1970s. This paper provides a brief history of Mariner 10 and the numerous imaginative but unsuccessful mission proposals since the 1970s for another Mercury mission. In the late 1990s, two missions—MESSENGER and BepiColombo—received the go-ahead; MESSENGER is on its way to its first encounter with Mercury in January 2008. The history, scientific objectives, mission designs, and payloads of both these missions are described in detail.     

Venus lightning

Although it is not unanimously accepted, many independent observations lead to the conclusion that lightning is prevalent on Venus. The electromagnetic signals detected by all 4 Venera landers are most readily explained as generation by lightning. The Venera 9 spectrometer appears to have observed a lightning storm on one occasion. The Pioneer Venus plasma wave instrument detects waves both below the electron gyrofrequency that may be due to lightning and signals above the electron gyrofrequency but at very low altitudes that may be due to the near field of the lightning. The VLF observations suggest that Venus lightning must be an intra-cloud phenomenon which is most frequent in the afternoon and evening sector. The occurrence rate is likely to be greater than on Earth.     

Automated air defense system using knowledge-based system

The proposed KAAD (knowledge-based automated air defense) system demonstrates a man-machine environment for airspace defense systems. When the unknown aircraft is hostile, a threat rating and response methods are generated by the system. It serves as a double-check decision-making system for a war control center. In addition to this application, the KAAD system can also be a useful tool as a training program for the war controller. The capabilities of the system are limited due to the shortage of knowledge resources. It requires communications among war controllers and air fighter pilots to organize a practical knowledge base. It is shown that the KAAD system can be combined with an automated ATC (air traffic control) system to become a practical system for air defense applications     

Cross Sections and Radar Equation for Nonlinear Scatterers

The nonlinear system concepts of nonlinear transfer functions are extended to nonlinear cross sections which may be used to quantitatively describe the characteristics of a nonlinear scatter. The concept of nonlinear cross sections is used to generalize the radar equation for nonlinear scattering objects.     

Radar Performance Review in Clear and Jamming Environments

The performance of electronically scanned radar systems is evaluated for clear and barrage jamming environments. Radar figures of merit in jamming are derived for search and track modes and are directly related to antenna pattern relative sidelobe levels. A random sidelobe model is analyzed with various numbers of independent jammers. Probability distributions of detection probability are derived to determine detection performance versus average jamming level and number of jammers.     

Study of rapid variability in Cygnus X-1

The EXOSAT Medium Energy instrument has been used with the new HER6 mode to study the rapid variability of Cygnus X-1. It was found that the fluctuations in the higher energy band (5–14 keV) lagged behind those in the lower band (2–5 keV) by about 6 milliseconds. This confirms predictions of the inverse Compton model and gives an upper limit to the scale-size of the hot gas clouds.