Forecasting the 23 and 24 solar cycles on the basis of MGM spectrum

A new method of nonlinear spectral analysis (called the method of global minimum: MGM), based on the best presentation (in sense of minimal squares) of a given time data set as a sum of sinusoids whose frequencies, amplitudes and phases are to be determined, has been used to find periodicities in annual Wolf sunspot numbers (W) during the period 1700–1995. The possible future behaviour of the 11-year solar cycle (based on an extrapolation of the calculated model) is also presented. The main characteristics of the 23^rd solar cycle are as follows: the W maximum occurs about 2004, with a peak of nearly 220. An unusually large value of W will occur during the 23^rd cycle, which should be characterised by the longest maximum, specifically, W will be greater than 100 during the 11-year period from 1997 to 2007. The first sharp rise will occur during the period 1996–1998, the second sharp during 2002–2004. The main features of the 24 year cycle are as follows: the next minimum in W, associated with the 24^th solar cycle, should occur in the year 2008 and the maximum in 2014. W is expected to peak at about 180. The minimum value for the 25^th year cycle is expected to occur in the year 2019. It is shown that the accuracy of these predictions depends, first of all, on the extrapolation of the hyperlong harmonic of the calculated polyharmonic model fit of observed annual sunspot numbers during the period 1700–1995. The error bars in the definition of the maximum and minimum epochs can be as large as two years.     

Imaging the solar corona in the EUV

The SOHO (SOlar and Heliospheric Observatory) satellite was launched on December 2nd 1995. After arriving at the Earth-Sun (L1) Lagrangian point on February 14th 1996, it began to continuously observe the Sun. As one of the instruments onboard SOHO, the EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the Sun's corona in 4 EUV wavelengths. The He II filter at 304 Å images the chromosphere and the base of the transition region at a temperature of 5 − 8 × 10⁴ K; the Fe IX–X filter at 171 Å images the corona at a temperature of 1.3 × 10⁶ K; the Fe XII filter at 195 Å images the quiet corona outside coronal holes at a temperature of 1.6 × 10⁶ K; and the Fe XV filter at 284 Å images active regions with a temperature of 2.0 × 10⁶ K. About 5000 images have been obtained up to the present. In this paper, we describe also some aspects of the telescope and the detector performance for application in the observations. Images and movies of all the wavelengths allow a look at different phenomena present in the Sun's corona, and in particular, magnetic field reconnection.     

A solar type U burst in the decimetric range

This paper analyzes a Type U burst at 1.0 – 2.8 GHz which occurred between 12:36:26 – 12:36:32 UT on 1992 August 22, observed by Ond ejov Observatory, Czech Republic. This may be the first example of Type U bursts in the decimetric range, as far as we know. From analysis we came to the following conclusion: (1) The frequency drift rates of the ascending and descending branches are 1.25 and 0.225 GHz/s, respectively, and the velocities of the electron beam are 0.38 c and 0.26 c, respectively; (2) The burst decay of the ascending branch is larger than that of the descending branch; (3) The variations of the maximum frequencies of instantaneous spectra with time appear as from the highest (1.92 GHz) to the lowest (1.0 GHz), then toward higher frequency (1.53 GHz) (this is consistent with that predicted by plasma emission theory); (4) The bandwidths of the ascending branch are about twice that of the descending branch (this may be caused by the larger drift rates of the ascending branch); (5) The temperature of the coronal loop apex is 6.3 × 10⁶ K; (6) The magnetic field at the top of the loop is greater than 9.2 G; (7) This U burst emission is plasma radiation at the second harmonic.     

On the conditions for fluidisation in cometary mantles

In our current understanding, active cometary nuclei comprise a volatile-depleted outer crust covering a mixture of dust and ices. During each perihelion passage the thermal wave penetrates the crust and sublimates a portion of these ices, which then escape the nucleus, dragging with them dust particles that replenish the coma and dust tail. The flux of released gases is likely to vary as a complex function of solar distance, nucleus structure, spin rate, etc. It has been previously hypothesised that at some point a fluidised state could occur, in which the gas drag is approximately equal to the weight of overlying dust and ice grains. This state is well understood and used in industrial processes where extensive mixing of the gas and solid components is desired. The literature on fluidisation under reduced gravity and pressure conditions is here reviewed and published relations used to predict the conditions under which fluidisation could occur in the near-surface of a cometary nucleus.     

Airglow

A review is given of the present state of the problem of upper atmospheric emission, in relation to the processes which take place in that region. Translated by the Express Translation Service, Wimbledon, London, W-2.     

Composition of solar cosmic rays

Summary The general features of the solar particle composition now seem to be clear. The two most abundant components, protons and helium nuclei, have different velocity spectra, similar, but not exactly identical rigidity spectra, and varying relative abundances. The multiply charged nuclei, on the other hand, appear to have the same spectral shape and relative abundances each time measurements are made, at least in the region from 42 to 135 MeV/nucleon. Further, these relative abundances seem to reflect those of the solar atmosphere insofar as comparison can be made. Electrons are rare, but high energy electrons are not expected to be plentiful due to the probable high rate of energy loss caused by synchrotron radiation at the sun. Energetic neutrons were also not expected in large quantity and have not been observed. Finally, there is positive evidence that very small quantities of deuterons exist, probably in an amount which is about 10^-3 or less of the proton abundance.The experimental data indicate that the propagation phenomenon is not purely rigidity dependent. Although the propagation of solar particles is still not well understood, the development of theories which take into account both the general magnetic field and the inhomogeneities in the field seem to hold some promise of explaining the experimental results. The composition data have also established important restraints which any acceleration theory must satisfy, and thereby contributed greatly to the very difficult problem of determining the acceleration mechanism.The similarity of the relative abundance of the energetic solar particles and the nuclei in the sun's photosphere suggested the possibility of having a new means of estimating the solar neon and helium abundances. This very interesting possibility will have to be explored by further testing of the composition of future solar particle events. Finally, it was seen that the composition was a very strong argument against most stars being the principal source of high energy non-solar cosmic rays, and, therefore, special sources, such as supernovae or possibly quasistellar objects, should be considered as much more likely prospects for the origin of cosmic rays.The results which have been obtained thus far on the composition of solar cosmic rays have indicated that further research in this area of study should be very rewarding and of value to many fields of physics. Further data on the composition and relative, as well as absolute, energy spectra of the various components are needed throughout many events. More experiments also should be performed to determine the properties of the rare components, deuterons, tritons, He³ nuclei, electrons, neutrons, and the heavier nuclei. When these experiments are complete, the knowledge which is needed to aid in answering the solar and astrophysical problems discussed in this review should be at hand.     

Dynamical theory of the solar wind

This paper is a review of the basic theoretical dynamical properties of an atmosphere with an extended temperature strongly bound by gravity. The review begins with the historical developments leading up to the realization that the only dynamical equilibrium of an atmosphere with extended temperature is supersonic expansion. It is shown that sufficient conditions for supersonic expansion are T(r) declining asymptotically less rapidly than 1/r, or the density at the base of the corona being less than N _b given by (40) if no energy is available except through thermal conductivity, or the temperature falling within the limits given by (18) if T N ^-1 throughout the corona. Less extended temperatures lead to equilibria which are subsonic or static. The hypothetical case of a corona with no energy supply other than thermal conduction from its base is considered at some length because the equations may be solved by analytical methods and illustrate the transition from subsonic to supersonic equilibrium as the temperature becomes more extended. Comparison with the actual corona shows that the solar corona is actively heated for some distance into space by wave dissipation.The dynamical stability of the expanding atmosphere is demonstrated, and in a later section the radial propagation of acoustic and Alfvén waves through the atmosphere and wind is worked out. The calculations show that the magnetometer will probably detect waves more easily than the plasma instrument, but that both are needed to determine the mode and direction of the wave. An observer in the wind at the orbit of Earth can listen to disturbances generated in the corona near the sun and in turbulent regions in interplanetary space.The possibility that the solar corona is composed of small-scale filaments near the sun is considered. It is shown that such filamentary structure would not be seen at the orbit of Earth. It is pointed out that the expansion of a non-filamentary corona seems to lead to too high a calculated wind density at the orbit of Earth to agree with the present observations, unless T(r) is constant or increases with r. A filamentary corona, on the other hand, would give the observed wind density for declining T(r).It is shown that viscosity plays no important role in the expansion of an atmosphere either with or without a weak magnetic field. The termination of the solar wind, presumably between 10–10³ AU, is discussed briefly. The interesting development here is the interplanetary L recently observed, which may come from the interstellar neutral hydrogen drifting into the outer regions of the solar wind.Theory is at the present time concerned with the general dynamical principles which pertain to the expansion equilibrium of an atmosphere. It is to be expected that the rapid progress of direct observations of the corona and wind will soon permit more detailed studies to be carried out. It is important that the distinction between detailed empirical models and models intended to illustrate general principles be kept clearly in mind at all times.This work was supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under Grant NASA-NsG-96-60.