Uncertainties in estimates of the risks of late effects from space radiation.

Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Using the linear-additivity model for radiation risks, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain an estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including a deep space outpost and Mars missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, e.g., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well-defined confidence limits.     

Order out of Randomness: Self-Organization Processes in Astrophysics

Self-organization is a property of dissipative nonlinear processes that are governed by a global driving force and a local positive feedback mechanism, which creates regular geometric and/or temporal patterns, and decreases the entropy locally, in contrast to random processes. Here we investigate for the first time a comprehensive number of (17) self-organization processes that operate in planetary physics, solar physics, stellar physics, galactic physics, and cosmology. Self-organizing systems create spontaneous “order out of randomness”, during the evolution from an initially disordered system to an ordered quasi-stationary system, mostly by quasi-periodic limit-cycle dynamics, but also by harmonic (mechanical or gyromagnetic) resonances. The global driving force can be due to gravity, electromagnetic forces, mechanical forces (e.g., rotation or differential rotation), thermal pressure, or acceleration of nonthermal particles, while the positive feedback mechanism is often an instability, such as the magneto-rotational (Balbus-Hawley) instability, the convective (Rayleigh-Bénard) instability, turbulence, vortex attraction, magnetic reconnection, plasma condensation, or a loss-cone instability. Physical models of astrophysical self-organization processes require hydrodynamic, magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD), plasma, or N-body simulations. Analytical formulations of self-organizing systems generally involve coupled differential equations with limit-cycle solutions of the Lotka-Volterra or Hopf-bifurcation type.     

Numerical simulation of circulation of the Titan’s atmosphere: Interpretation of measurements of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">Huygens</Emphasis> probe

The results of numerical simulation of the general circulation in the Titan’s atmosphere at heights from 0 to 250 km are presented, obtained using a new model based on numerical solution of complete equations of motion of viscous compressible gas at the temperature distribution given by an empirical model. The model uses no hydrostatic equation and, as compared with traditional models, has higher resolution in vertical and over horizon. The results presented differ from results of other models and agree with the vertical profile of the zonal component of wind velocity measured by the Huygens spacecraft. Interpretation of this profile is given, including its main peculiarity consisting in a nonmonotonic behavior at heights from 60 to 75 km.     

冷轧无间隙原子钢中的微带生成机理

分析了冷轧体心立方金属中微带的形成原因.基于塑性变形理论,运用Taylor模型和Bishop＆Hill最大功原理,计算了变形体心立方晶体中滑移系上的切应变分布.计算结果表明,冷轧时当晶粒的轧向平行于晶粒的某些特定取向时,大量的局部切应变将集中产生在一个滑移面上并在此形成微带.这一高度局域性的切应变是形成剪切带的原因.此时,剪切带与轧制方向之间夹角为30°.另外,微带呈片状是双交滑移的结果,透射电子显微镜观察到的剪切带所在晶粒的取向和所在滑移面证实了这一微带的形成机制.     

SIGMA observations of two new hard X-ray and soft gamma-ray transients: GX 354-0 and Nova Persei

We report the first detection of two soft gamma ray transients GX 354-0 and Nova Persei (GRO J0422+32) by the coded-mask telescope SIGMA. Only preliminary results are presented with regard to Nova Persei while special emphasis is given to the data on GX 354-0 which has been monitored during the 1992 February–April survey of the Galactic Center. GX 354-0 underwent two flares of about two week duration and its average spectrum is well described by a thermal Bremsstrahlung model or a broken power law whereas the Nova Persei spectrum seems to be similar to the one observed for GRS 1124-684 in Musca.     

Computer modeling of test particle acceleration at oblique shocks

We review the basic techniques and results of numerical codes used to model the acceleration of charged particles at oblique, fast-mode, collisionless shocks. The emphasis is upon models in which accelerated particles (ions) are treated as test particles, and particle dynamics is calculated by numerically integrating along exact phase-space orbits. We first review the case where ions are sufficiently energetic so that the shock can be approximated by a planar discontinuity, and where the electromagnetic fields on both sides of the shock are defined at the outset of each computer run. When the fields are uniform and static, particles are accelerated by the scatter-free drift acceleration process at a single shock encounter. We review the characteristics of scatter-free drift acceleration by considering how an incident particle distribution is modified by interacting with a shock. Next we discuss drift acceleration when magnetic fluctuations are introduced on both sides of the shock, and compare these results with those obtained under scatter-free conditions. We describe the modeling of multiple shock encounters, discuss specific applications, and compare the model predictions with theory. Finally, we review some recent numerical simulations that illustrate the importance of shock structure to both the ion injection process and to the acceleration of ions to high energies at quasi-perpendicular shocks.     

The Solar System d/h Ratio: Observations and Theories

The measured D/H ratios in interstellar environments and in the solar system are reviewed. The two extreme D/H ratios in solar system water - (720±120)×10⁻⁶ in clay minerals and (88±11)×10⁻⁶ in chondrules, both from LL3 chondritic meteorites - are interpreted as the result of a progressive isotopic exchange in the solar nebula between deuterium-rich interstellar water and protosolar H₂. According to a turbulent model describing the evolution of the nebula (Drouart et al., 1999), water in the solar system cannot be a product of thermal (neutral) reactions occurring in the solar nebula. Taking 720×10⁻⁶ as a face value for the isotopic composition of the interstellar water that predates the formation of the solar nebula, numerical simulations show that the water D/H ratio decreases via an isotopic exchange with H₂. During the course of this process, a D/H gradient was established in the nebula. This gradient was smoothed with time and the isotopic homogenization of the solar nebula was completed in 10⁶ years, reaching a D/H ratio of 88×10⁻⁶. In this model, cometary water should have also suffered a partial isotopic re-equilibration with H₂. The isotopic heterogeneity observed in chondrites result from the turbulent mixing of grains, condensed at different epochs and locations in the solar nebula. Recent isotopic determinations of water ice in cold interstellar clouds are in agreement with these chondritic data and their interpretation (Texeira et al., 1999). This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.