High temporal resolution global PWV dataset of 2005–2016 by using a neural network approach to determine the mean temperature of the atmosphere

Atmospheric water vapour plays an important role in phenomena related to the global hydrologic cycle and climate change. However, the rapid temporal–spatial variation in global tropospheric water vapour has not been well investigated due to a lack of long-term, high-temporal-resolution precipitable water vapour (PWV). Accordingly, this study generates an hourly PWV dataset for 272 ground-based International Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Service (IGS) stations over the period of 2005–2016 using the zenith troposphere delay (ZTD) derived from global-scale GNSS observation. The root mean square (RMS) of the hourly ZTD obtained from the IGS tropospheric product is approximately 4 mm. A fifth-generation reanalysis dataset of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF ERA5) is used to obtain hourly surface temperature (T) and pressure (P), which are first validated with GNSS synoptic station data and radiosonde data, respectively. Then, T and P are used to calculate the water vapour-weighted atmospheric mean temperature (Tm) and zenith hydrostatic delay (ZHD), respectively. T and P at the GNSS stations are obtained via an interpolation in the horizontal and vertical directions using the grid-based ERA5 reanalysis dataset. Here, Tm is calculated using a neural network model, whereas ZHD is obtained using an empirical Saastamoinen model. The RMS values of T and P at the collocated 693 radiosonde stations are 1.6 K and 3.1 hPa, respectively. Therefore, the theoretical error of PWV caused by the errors in ZTD, T and P is on the order of approximately 2.1 mm. A practical comparison experiment is performed using 97 collocated radiosonde stations and 23 GNSS stations equipped with meteorological sensors. The RMS and bias of the hourly PWV dataset are 2.87/?0.16 and 2.45/0.55 mm, respectively, when compared with radiosonde and GNSS stations equipped with meteorological sensors. Additionally, preliminary analysis of the hourly PWV dataset during the EI Niño event of 2014–2016 further indicates the capability of monitoring the daily changes in atmospheric water vapour. This finding is interesting and significant for further climate research.     

基于大数据的空管运行安全预警研究

空中交通管制的任务是确保航空器的安全飞行,为了保证飞行安全,需要进行空中交通管制系统运行安全评估及预警的研究.借鉴大数据理论建立空中交通管制大数据概念,从影响空中交通管制系统运行的主要风险因素出发,建立空中交通管制安全运行的状态向量空间,利用主成分分析法去除基础向量线性相关性,再利用聚类分析过程建立空中交通管制运行安全预警知识库,实现空中交通管制运行安全评估和及时预警.结果表明:所用的预警分类分析方法能够很好地实现预警分类和安全评估,为管制部门的相关决策提供理论依据.     

军用目标红外特性模型评估技术

初步建立了一套关于军用目标红外辐射特性理论模型可靠性、准确性、通用性的评估准则及软件,为理论模型的入库和武器型号部门的应用提供了参考依据。     

基于SVM算法的虚假航迹识别

针对云雨杂波和主被动干扰导致多雷达传感器产生虚假目标航迹的问题,利用支持向量机(SVM)算法的自主学习能力,通过构建基于数据驱动的判别模型进行虚假航迹识别。针对航迹起始得到的目标潜在航迹,利用人工智能数据驱动、自学习的特点,设计了SVM算法。通过对已标记真假的目标航迹样本进行离线学习,形成虚假航迹识别的SVM分类器,实现了基于数据驱动的判别模型代替先验知识规则约束的固定模型,并在工程应用中,利用SVM分类器在线识别虚假航迹,完成实时剔除。通过实测雷达数据实验验证,该算法的目标虚假航迹准确率高达95%以上,完全满足实际的工程应用需求。相比基于阈值或规则进行硬性判断的传统虚假航迹识别方法,所提出的算法不仅提高了准确率,还具有较高的实时性,能够适应复杂多变的杂波环境,在实际应用中具有更强的适应性和实用性。因此,提出的基于SVM算法的虚假航迹识别方法对于密集杂波场景下的虚假航迹剔除问题具有显著的实际应用价值。     

基于不确定性的飞行器分离可靠性建模与分析方法

为实现飞行器分离任务可靠性的定量分析和高效精确评估,研究了高超声速飞行器分离任务过程中各种不确定性因素对分离可靠性的影响,提出一种基于不确定性的飞行器分离可靠性建模与分析方法。面向高超声速飞行器分离任务需求,建立分离动力学仿真模型,综合考虑分离过程不确定性因素的影响,利用灵敏度分析方法识别主要不确定性因素,构建分离可靠性模型。针对此模型,提出一种改进主动学习Kriging(IAK)的分离可靠性分析方法,通过新的采样策略选取失效概率更大的采样点作为新增训练点,进行高效可靠性分析。实例结果表明,该方法能够准确描述不确定性因素对分离过程的影响,提升分离可靠性定量分析的精度和效率,为飞行器分离方案的精细化设计提供支撑。     

高精度盘式永磁电机温度分析与研究

以高精度无槽盘式永磁电机为研究对象,建立了电机三维电磁仿真模型。详细分析了该电机反电动势和转矩特性,避免由高次谐波引起的定、转子及永磁体涡流损耗,有效改善了电机的热性能,为进一步研究打下基础。建立了三维温度场仿真模型,分析了热源分布和传热过程,计算了电机在自然散热条件下温度的稳态分布。最后通过电机温升试验,验证了理论分析的正确性与合理性。     

基于静强度分布的复合材料疲劳寿命分布的预测模型(英文)

The reasons of the static strength dispersion and the fatigue life dispersion of composite laminates are analyzed in this article. It is concluded that the inner original defects, which derived from the manufacturing process of composite laminates, are the common and major reason of causing the random distributions of the static strength and the fatigue life. And there is a correlative relation between the two distributions. With the study of statistical relationship between the fatigue loading and the fatigue life in the uniform confidence level and the same survival rate S-N curves of material, the relationship between the static strength distribution and the fatigue life distribution through a material S-N curve model has been obtained. And then the model which is used to describe the distributions of fatigue life of composites, based on their distributions of static strength, is set up. This model reasonably reflects the effects of the inner original defects on the static strength dispersion and on the fatigue life dispersion of composite laminates. The experimental data of three kinds of composite laminates are employed to verify this model, and the results show that this model can predict the random distributions of fatigue life for composites under any fatigue loads fairly well.     

一种环境探测球形移动机器人的运动控制

 球形移动机器人具有结构紧凑、运动灵活等特点,在环境探测等应用领域具有独特优势。介绍了一种新型的、带有双摄像头的环境探测球形移动机器人BHQ-2的结构与运动原理,并对其运动控制问题进行了研究。由于该球形机器人属于非完整约束系统,其不存在位置级的运动学逆解,因此从速度级上讨论了它的运动控制问题。基于旋量理论推导了该球形移动机器人的速度雅可比矩阵,采用广义逆的解法求得了它的速度逆解,并采用可控性李代数证明了BHQ-2球形移动机器人系统是满秩的,因此该机器人系统是完全非完整的并且是可控的。基于运动学速度逆解对BHQ-2球形移动机器人进行了直线和圆形运动轨迹的仿真和实验,仿真和实验结果验证了该球形机器人的可控性及速度逆解的正确性。     

某发动机空中停车事件的失效分析

对一台发生空中停车的发动机进行了现场分解调查和实验室分析工作。分解发现肇事件是1组低压涡轮4级(LPT4)静子叶片,该叶片组因固定沟槽断裂而向后翘起打断所有LPT4转子叶片,并将低压涡轮部分5级(LPT5)和全部6级(LPT6)叶片打断。宏观和微观观察表明断裂的LPT4静子叶片均属于高周疲劳断裂,疲劳断裂的主要原因是固定沟槽内倒角过小。有限元法分析结果表明叶片倒角过小降低了叶片抵抗振动应力的能力;影像法测量结果表明内倒角不符合厂家的技术要求;金相分析表明内倒角不符合技术要求的原因是该处曾进行过焊修和再加工,属修理不当造成的。     

基于误差预测修正的液体火箭发动机故障预测方法研究

为解决液体火箭发动机故障预测这一难题,提出一种基于误差预测修正的故障预测方法。在历史数据的基础上建立小波过程神经网络故障预测模型,同步计算学习样本的预测误差,根据上述误差建立双并联离散过程神经网络预测模型。预测时,将预测误差值实时补偿到小波过程神经网络预测模型以提高预测精度。通过液体火箭发动机地面试验中的涡轮泵数据对该方法进了验证。结果表明,该方法在预测精度和适应能力上较单一的过程神经网络预测模型有显著提高,进行10步预测时,预测值的标准化均方根误差为0.392,预测平均耗时为76ms,能够用于解决液体火箭发动机故障预测问题。