卫星成本预测的蒙特卡洛优化模型研究

传统的卫星成本预测模型预测结果单一，未考虑相应的不确定性因素。对此，提出了基于蒙特卡洛方法的卫星成本预测模型。该模型综合考虑了卫星成本技术的不确定性并给出了预测值的区间范围和概率分布。为了降低应用该模型所产生的误差，提出了最优分层抽样的方法，并通过划分分层区间提高了抽样的效率。最后，将收集到的相关数据代人该模型，其结果精度大约提高了10％左右。可见，使用优化的蒙特卡洛方法进行卫星成本预测具有较好的精确度。     

固体火箭发动机推力线横移和偏斜模拟计算

分析了固体火箭发动机推力线横移和偏斜的影响因素，介绍了由静态影响因素引起的偏差计算方法，得到的模拟计算结果与实测结果相近。这种计算方法将有助于改进导弹的姿态控制精度。     

不同风速下海洋粗糙面散射系数的计算

在考虑风速的条件下,计算了海洋粗糙面的散射特性。用矩量法(MOM)计算了一维介质海洋粗糙面在Durden-Vesecky功率谱下的散射系数,由此获得了一定风速时的双站散射系数。仿真结果表明,计算值与文献数据非常吻合。由计算的不同风速下双站散射系数可知,风速对海洋粗糙面散射特性的影响较大。在一定的海拔高度上,散射角相同(除后向散射方向外)时,风速越大,散射就越强。     

碳纤维复合材料高压球形容器研制

采用变带距方法对球形容器进行优化设计，并研制了一批产品。试验结果表明，在纤维设计应力相同条件下，采用变带距缠绕的球形容器，其复合材料重量比等带距缠绕的轻２４．５６％，而其容器特性系数高出１０．４％，能同时满足设计提出的强度和重量两方面要求。     

固体火箭发动机试验故障分析

从工程研制角度出发，探讨了分析固体火箭发动机试验失败原因的一般方法和过程，根据某发动机试验故障的具体情况，运用这种试验故障分析方法和过程（即针对试验故障进行故障树分析，设计复审分析，数据曲线的复核复算分析和验证试验），找出造成发动机试验故障的具体原因，确定故障机理；而后针对性地采取综合技术措施，并对这些措施进行试验验证，故障归零。     

激波在狭缝中绕射过程研究

针对固体火箭发动机药柱存在裂纹的情况，对运动激波在狭缝中绕射传播的非定常流场进行了计算，得到了清晰的流场变化图谱，从流场图中可分辨出激波在狭缝中的传播过程。对不同深宽比的狭缝进行研究，发现流场结构存在明显差别，在深宽比较小时狭缝内压力波振荡较小，当深宽比超过一定值时狭缝内的压力波产生剧烈振荡。研究结果表明，该方法可很好地描述激波在狭缝中的传播过程。     

基于RBF网络的惯导系统初始对准

建立了惯导系统（ＩＮＳ）初始对准的线性和非线性误差模型。分析了径向基函数（ＲＢＦ）网络的结构和工作原理。研究了ＲＢＦ网代替初始对准中的卡尔曼滤波器的实现方法。通过仿真表明，用神经网络进行初始对准，既可获得与卡尔曼滤波相同的对准精度，又提高了系统的实时性。     

VentureStar… reaping the benefits of the X-33 program

Major X-33 flight hardware has been delivered, and assembly of the vehicle is well underway in anticipation of its flight test program commencing in the summer of 1999. Attention has now turned to the operational VentureStar^TM, the first single-stage-to-orbit (SSTO) reusable launch vehicle. Activities are grouped under two broad categories: (1) vehicle development and (2) market/business planning, each of which is discussed. The mission concept is presented for direct payload delivery to the International Space Station and to low Earth orbit, as well as payload delivery with an upper stage to Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit (GTO) and other high energy orbits. System requirements include flight segment and ground segment. Vehicle system sizing and design status is provided including the application of X-33 traceability and lessons learned. Technology applications to the VentureStar^TM are described including the structure, propellant tanks, thermal protection system, aerodynamics, subsystems, payload bay and propulsion. Developing a market driven low cost launch services system for the 21st Century requires traditional and non-traditional ways of being able to forecast the evolution of the potential market. The challenge is balancing both the technical and financial assumptions of the market. This involves the need to provide a capability to meet market segments that in some cases are very speculative, while at the same time providing the financial community with a credible revenue stream. Furthermore, the market derived requirements need to be assessed so as not to impose unnecessary requirements on the vehicle design that add unreasonable cost to the development of the system, yet provides the right capabilities for new markets that could be triggered by dramatically lower space transportation prices.     

现代微波测量的发展动态

从微波测量仪器、测量技术及测量分析出发 ,简单地阐述了现代微波测量发展的趋势。供微波测量人员参考     

Progress on Space Solar Telescope in 2004 - 2006

The progress on Chinese Space Solar Telescope (SST) in 2004-2006 is introduced. The scientific objectives are further clarified and the ground operation system has been planned. The 7 key technical problems of SST satellite platform and payloads have been tackled, which lay solid scientific and technological foundations for engineering prototype phase of the SST project. At present the SST project undergoes evaluation by CNSA and CAS so as to enter the engineering prototype phase of the SST project if it is finally approved.