Forecasting the 23 and 24 solar cycles on the basis of MGM spectrum

A new method of nonlinear spectral analysis (called the method of global minimum: MGM), based on the best presentation (in sense of minimal squares) of a given time data set as a sum of sinusoids whose frequencies, amplitudes and phases are to be determined, has been used to find periodicities in annual Wolf sunspot numbers (W) during the period 1700–1995. The possible future behaviour of the 11-year solar cycle (based on an extrapolation of the calculated model) is also presented. The main characteristics of the 23^rd solar cycle are as follows: the W maximum occurs about 2004, with a peak of nearly 220. An unusually large value of W will occur during the 23^rd cycle, which should be characterised by the longest maximum, specifically, W will be greater than 100 during the 11-year period from 1997 to 2007. The first sharp rise will occur during the period 1996–1998, the second sharp during 2002–2004. The main features of the 24 year cycle are as follows: the next minimum in W, associated with the 24^th solar cycle, should occur in the year 2008 and the maximum in 2014. W is expected to peak at about 180. The minimum value for the 25^th year cycle is expected to occur in the year 2019. It is shown that the accuracy of these predictions depends, first of all, on the extrapolation of the hyperlong harmonic of the calculated polyharmonic model fit of observed annual sunspot numbers during the period 1700–1995. The error bars in the definition of the maximum and minimum epochs can be as large as two years.     

Coronal mass ejection detection using wavelets,curvelets and ridgelets: Applications for space weather monitoring

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are large-scale eruptions of plasma and magnetic field that can produce adverse space weather at Earth and other locations in the Heliosphere. Due to the intrinsic multiscale nature of features in coronagraph images, wavelet and multiscale image processing techniques are well suited to enhancing the visibility of CMEs and suppressing noise. However, wavelets are better suited to identifying point-like features, such as noise or background stars, than to enhancing the visibility of the curved form of a typical CME front. Higher order multiscale techniques, such as ridgelets and curvelets, were therefore explored to characterise the morphology (width, curvature) and kinematics (position, velocity, acceleration) of CMEs. Curvelets in particular were found to be well suited to characterising CME properties in a self-consistent manner. Curvelets are thus likely to be of benefit to autonomous monitoring of CME properties for space weather applications.     

Challenges and perspectives of transport cargo vehicles utilization for performing research in free flight

Russian Progress transport cargo vehicles have successfully been used in different space station programs since 1978. At present time, they play an important role in the International Space Station (ISS) project. Main tasks performed by the transport cargo vehicle (TCV) in the station program are the following: refueling of the station, delivery of consumables and equipment, waste removal, station attitude control and orbit correction maneuver execution.     

Transient Modeling of Synchronous Machine-Transformer-SCR Bridge

A rigorous mathematical model of a synchronouschine-machine-transformer-thyristor bridge unit is presented in state-space form with coefficients that are explicit functions of standard parameters. The developed model has a minimum order for each of the various operation modes of the bridge, and its form is such that it can be readily interfaced with any type of dc network connected to the bridge. In addition, the model has the capability to consider different types of transformer winding connections. In a digital simulation, the explicit form of the state model eliminates the need of matrix inversions at each integration step. This and the use of the ?, ? reference frame result in a high computing efficiency and accuracy. As an illustration, simulation results are shown of a case study where the unit is part of a high-power pulse generating system.     

Models of P/Borrelly: Activity and dust mantle formation

Comet 19P/Borrelly was observed by Deep Space One spacecraft on September 22, 2001 (Soderblom et al., 2002).The DS1 images show a very dark and elongate nucleus with a complex topography; the IR spectra show a strong red-ward slope consistent with a very hot and dry surface (345K to 300K). During DS1 encounter the comet coma was dominated by a prominent jet but most of the comet was inactive, confirming the Earth-based observations that <10% of the surface is actively sublimating. We have developed a thermal evolution model of comet PBorrelly, using a numerical code that is able to solve the heat conduction and gas diffusion equations at the same time across an idealized spherical nucleus ( De Sanctis et al., 1999, 2000; Capria et al., 2000; Coradini et al., 1997a,b). The comet nucleus is composed by water, volatiles ices and dust in different proportions. The refractory component is made by grains that are embedded in the icy matrix. The code is able to account for the dust release, contributing to the dust flux, and the formation of dust mantles on the comet surface. The model was applied to a cometary nucleus with the estimated physical and dynamical characteristics of P/Borrelly in order to infer the status and activity level of a body on such an orbit during the DS1 observation. The comet gas flux, differentiation and thermal behavior were simulated and reproduced. The model results are in good agreement with the DS1 flyby results and the ground based observations, in terms of activity, dust coverage and temperatures of the surface.     

HED Meteorites and Their Relationship to the Geology of Vesta and the Dawn Mission

Howardite-eucrite-diogenite (HED) meteorites, thought to be derived from 4 Vesta, provide the best sampling available for any differentiated asteroid. However, deviations in oxygen isotopic composition from a common mass-fractionation line suggest that a few eucrite-like meteorites are from other bodies, or that Vesta was not completely homogenized during differentiation. The petrology and geochemistry of HEDs provide insights into igneous processes that produced a crust composed of basalts, gabbros, and ultramafic cumulate rocks. Although most HED magmas were fractionated, it is unresolved whether some eucrites may have been primary melts. The geochemistry of HEDs indicates that bulk Vesta is depleted in volatile elements and is relatively reduced, but has chondritic refractory element abundances. The compositions of HEDs may favor a magma ocean model, but inconsistencies remain. Geochronology indicates that Vesta accreted and differentiated within the first several million years of solar system history, that magmatism continued over a span of ??10 Myr, and that its thermal history extended for perhaps 100 Myr. The protracted cooling history is probably responsible for thermal metamorphism of most HEDs. Impact chronology indicates that Vesta experienced many significant collisions, including during the late heavy bombardment. The age of the huge south pole crater is controversial, but it probably ejected Vestoids and many HEDs. Continued impacts produced a regolith composed of eucrite and diogenite fragments containing only minor exotic materials. HED meteorites serve as ground truth for orbital spectroscopic and chemical analyses by the Dawn spacecraft, and their properties are critical for instrument calibration and interpretation of Vesta??s geologic history.     

Switching in sequential tree networks

Recursive analytical expressions for speedup and solution time for a multilevel tree sequentially processing a divisible load under cut through switching are developed. Such cut through switching is shown to be more efficient than store and forward switching. Aerospace applications include sensor networks, radar, and satellite imagery processing.     

OSIRIS-REx: Sample Return from Asteroid (101955) Bennu

In May of 2011, NASA selected the Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security–Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) asteroid sample return mission as the third mission in the New Frontiers program. The other two New Frontiers missions are New Horizons, which explored Pluto during a flyby in July 2015 and is on its way for a flyby of Kuiper Belt object 2014 MU69 on January 1, 2019, and Juno, an orbiting mission that is studying the origin, evolution, and internal structure of Jupiter. The spacecraft departed for near-Earth asteroid (101955) Bennu aboard an United Launch Alliance Atlas V 411 evolved expendable launch vehicle at 7:05 p.m. EDT on September 8, 2016, on a seven-year journey to return samples from Bennu. The spacecraft is on an outbound-cruise trajectory that will result in a rendezvous with Bennu in November 2018. The science instruments on the spacecraft will survey Bennu to measure its physical, geological, and chemical properties, and the team will use these data to select a site on the surface to collect at least 60 g of asteroid regolith. The team will also analyze the remote-sensing data to perform a detailed study of the sample site for context, assess Bennu’s resource potential, refine estimates of its impact probability with Earth, and provide ground-truth data for the extensive astronomical data set collected on this asteroid. The spacecraft will leave Bennu in 2021 and return the sample to the Utah Test and Training Range (UTTR) on September 24, 2023.

     

Strategies for telecommunications and navigation in support of Mars exploration

The planned exploration of Mars will pose new and unique telecommunications and navigation challenges. The full range of orbital, atmospheric, and surface exploration will drive requirements on data return, energy-efficient communications, connectivity, and positioning. In this paper we will summarize the needs of the currently planned Mars exploration mission set, outline design trades and options for meeting these needs, and quantify the specific telecommunications and navigation capabilities of an evolving infrastructure.