Past,Present and Future of Active Radio Frequency Experiments in Space

Active ionospheric experiments using high-power, high-frequency transmitters, “heaters”, to study plasma processes in the ionosphere and magnetosphere continue to provide new insights into understanding plasma and geophysical proceses. This review describes the heating facilities, past and present, and discusses scientific results from these facilities and associated space missions. Phenomena that have been observed with these facilities are reviewed along with theoretical explanations that have been proposed or are commonly accepted. Gaps or uncertainties in understanding of heating-initiated phenomena are discussed together with proposed science questions to be addressed in the future. Suggestions for improvements and additions to existing facilities are presented including important satellite missions which are necessary to answer the outstanding questions in this field.     

Photoelectron Counting Statistics and Error Performance of m-Distributed Optical Signal

By the term "m-distributed optical signal" we mean a noise-like optical signal whose envelope (or intensity) fluctuation probability is modeled by Nakagami's "m-distribution." Using the m-distribution which has been widely used as an analytical model of the fading envelope in radio communications, it is shown that one can generally analyze the statistical properties such as the photoelectron count probabilities and error probabilities for the wider class of noise-like optical signals; some numerical results are also given.     

Forecasting the 23 and 24 solar cycles on the basis of MGM spectrum

A new method of nonlinear spectral analysis (called the method of global minimum: MGM), based on the best presentation (in sense of minimal squares) of a given time data set as a sum of sinusoids whose frequencies, amplitudes and phases are to be determined, has been used to find periodicities in annual Wolf sunspot numbers (W) during the period 1700–1995. The possible future behaviour of the 11-year solar cycle (based on an extrapolation of the calculated model) is also presented. The main characteristics of the 23^rd solar cycle are as follows: the W maximum occurs about 2004, with a peak of nearly 220. An unusually large value of W will occur during the 23^rd cycle, which should be characterised by the longest maximum, specifically, W will be greater than 100 during the 11-year period from 1997 to 2007. The first sharp rise will occur during the period 1996–1998, the second sharp during 2002–2004. The main features of the 24 year cycle are as follows: the next minimum in W, associated with the 24^th solar cycle, should occur in the year 2008 and the maximum in 2014. W is expected to peak at about 180. The minimum value for the 25^th year cycle is expected to occur in the year 2019. It is shown that the accuracy of these predictions depends, first of all, on the extrapolation of the hyperlong harmonic of the calculated polyharmonic model fit of observed annual sunspot numbers during the period 1700–1995. The error bars in the definition of the maximum and minimum epochs can be as large as two years.     

Amplification of the influence of solar flux variations on the winter stratosphere by planetary waves

Recent observational evidence has suggested that variations in solar activity may affect winter stratospheric polar ozone and temperature levels. The paucity of direct sunlight available during this season points strongly to a dynamical mechanism. We have carried out several large ensemble experiments within the middle atmosphere and the coupled middle atmosphere and lower thermosphere to simulate the radiative/dynamical coupling via planetary waves for a range of solar fluxes. In the former case, the model response in the winter stratosphere was linear and of the order of the summer stratopause forcing, whilst in the latter, the level of correlation in the winter stratosphere remained high, but was diluted over a wider volume. The inclusion of the upper atmosphere enhanced the winter polar stratospheric response by a factor of three.     

Determination of land surface temperature using precipitable water based Split-Window and Artificial Neural Network in Turkey

Land surface temperature (LST) calculation utilizing satellite thermal images is very difficult due to the great temporal variance of atmospheric water vapor in the atmosphere which strongly affects the thermal radiance incoming to satellite sensors. In this study, Split-Window (SW) and Radial Basis Function (RBF) methods were utilized for prediction of LST using precipitable water for Turkey. Coll 94 Split-Window algorithm was modified using regional precipitable water values estimated from upper-air Radiosond observations for the years 1990–2007 and Local Split-Window (LSW) algorithms were generated for the study area. Using local algorithms and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data, monthly mean daily sum LST values were calculated. In RBF method latitude, longitude, altitude, surface emissivity, sun shine duration and precipitable water values were used as input variables of the structure. Correlation coefficients between estimated and measured LST values were obtained as 99.23% (for RBF) and 94.48% (for LSW) at 00:00 UTC and 92.77% (for RBF) and 89.98% (for LSW) at 12:00 UTC. These meaningful statistical results suggest that RBF and LSW methods could be used for LST calculation.     

Venus Express—Science observations experience at Venus

The Venus Express mission is the European Space Agency's (ESA) first spacecraft at Venus. It was launched in November 2005 by a Soyuz–Fregat launcher and arrived at Venus in April 2006. The mission covers a broad range of scientific goals including physics, chemistry, dynamics and structure of the atmosphere as well as atmospheric interaction with the surface and several aspects of the surface itself. Furthermore, it investigates the plasma environment and interaction of the solar wind with the atmosphere and escape processes.One month after the arrival at Venus the Venus Express spacecraft started routine science operations. Since then Venus Express has been observing Venus every day for more than one year continuously making new discoveries.In order to ensure that all the science objectives are fulfilled the Venus Express Science Operations Centre (VSOC) has the task of coordinating and implementing the science operations for the mission. During the first year of Venus observations the VSOC and the experiment teams gained a lot of experience in how to make best use of the observation conditions and payload capabilities. While operating the spacecraft in orbit we also acquired more knowledge on the technical constraints and more insight in the science observations and their results.As the nominal mission is coming to an end, the extended mission will start from October 2007. The Extended Science Mission Plan was developed taking into account the lessons learned. At the same time new observations were added along with specific fine-tuned observations in order to complete the science objectives of the mission.This paper will describe how the previous observations influence the current requirements for the observations around Venus today and how they influence the observations in the mission extension. Also it will give an overview of the Extended Science Mission Plan and its challenges for the future observations.