Forecasting the next major thrust into space

Patterns in societal energy use enable forecasts of the times of future events associated with important human exploration and technology programs. Discovered in 1989, the 56 year energy cycle has previously been linked with many technological, economic, and social parameters. A review of the last 200 years reveals that major human explorations (e.g. polar expeditions), macro-engineering projects (e.g. Panama Canal), and large wars (e.g. World War I) cluster together in time near energy cycle peaks approximately every 56 years. The energy cycle and several other indicators suggest that large-scale human operations in space will begin to appear around 2015. They should culminate in a space spectacular near 2025. Another window of opportunity for space exploration will not open until late in the twenty-first century.     

Infrared irradiance calibration

Infrared astronomical measurements are calibrated against reference sources, usually primary standard stars that are, in turn, calibrated either by direct or indirect means. A direct calibration compares the star with a certified source, typically a blackbody. Indirect methods extrapolate a direct measurement of the flux at one wavelength to the flux at another. Historically, α Lyr (Vega) has been used as the primary standard as it is bright, easily accessible from the northern hemisphere, and is well calibrated in the visual. Until recently, the direct absolute infrared calibrations of α Lyr and those derived from the absolute solar flux scaled to the observed spectral energy distributions of solar type stars increasingly diverged with wavelength from those obtained using a model atmosphere to extrapolate the absolute visual flux of Vega into the infrared. The exception is the direct calibration by the 1996/97 Midcourse Space Experiment of the absolute fluxes for a number of the commonly used infrared standard stars, including Vega.In the mid-1980s, the Air Force Geophysics Laboratory began a program that led to the establishment of a network of stars with which to calibrate infrared space-based sensors. α Lyr and a CMa were adopted as the fundamental references and the absolute 1.2 to 35 µm infrared spectral energy distributions for the 616 secondary standard stars in the network were derived through spectral and photometric comparisons with the primary standards. The stars are also used for calibration at ground-based infrared observatories. For applications in which the network stars may not be bright enough, particularly at the longer infrared wavelengths, planets and the larger asteroids are used. Planets and asteroids move and rather sophisticated thermal modeling of the bodies is required to predict the disk-integrated brightness at a specific time with reasonable accuracy. The Infrared Space Observatory applied such a sophisticated ‘thermo-physical’ model to the largest asteroids to support calibration of the sensors to a claimed accuracy of within 5%. The AFRL program also created a spectral atlas of the brightest stars in the sky that, although they are variable, may be used for calibration if the large(r) attendant uncertainties are acceptable.This revised version was published online in July 2005 with a corrected cover date.     

Global Non-Potential Magnetic Models of the Solar Corona During the March 2015 Eclipse

Seven different models are applied to the same problem of simulating the Sun’s coronal magnetic field during the solar eclipse on 2015 March 20. All of the models are non-potential, allowing for free magnetic energy, but the associated electric currents are developed in significantly different ways. This is not a direct comparison of the coronal modelling techniques, in that the different models also use different photospheric boundary conditions, reflecting the range of approaches currently used in the community. Despite the significant differences, the results show broad agreement in the overall magnetic topology. Among those models with significant volume currents in much of the corona, there is general agreement that the ratio of total to potential magnetic energy should be approximately 1.4. However, there are significant differences in the electric current distributions; while static extrapolations are best able to reproduce active regions, they are unable to recover sheared magnetic fields in filament channels using currently available vector magnetogram data. By contrast, time-evolving simulations can recover the filament channel fields at the expense of not matching the observed vector magnetic fields within active regions. We suggest that, at present, the best approach may be a hybrid model using static extrapolations but with additional energization informed by simplified evolution models. This is demonstrated by one of the models.     

Models for Type Ia Supernovae and Related Astrophysical Transients

We give an overview of recent efforts to model Type Ia supernovae and related astrophysical transients resulting from thermonuclear explosions in white dwarfs. In particular we point out the challenges resulting from the multi-physics multi-scale nature of the problem and discuss possible numerical approaches to meet them in hydrodynamical explosion simulations and radiative transfer modeling. We give examples of how these methods are applied to several explosion scenarios that have been proposed to explain distinct subsets or, in some cases, the majority of the observed events. In case we comment on some of the successes and shortcoming of these scenarios and highlight important outstanding issues.     

The YORP effect on the GOES 8 and GOES 10 satellites: A case study

The Yarkovsky-O’Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack (YORP) effect is a proposed explanation for the observed rotation behavior of inactive satellites in Earth orbit. This paper further explores the YORP effect for highly asymmetric inactive satellites. Satellite models are developed to represent the GOES 8 and GOES 10 satellites, both of which are currently inactive in geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO). A simple satellite model for the GOES 8 satellite is used to analyze the short period variations of the angular velocity and obliquity as a result of the YORP effect. A more complex model for the rotational dynamics of the GOES 8 and GOES 10 satellites are developed to probe their sensitivity and to match observed spin periods and states of these satellites. The simulated rotation periods are compared to observations for both satellites. The comparison between YORP theory and observed rotation rates for both satellites show that the YORP effect could be the cause for the observed rotational behavior. The YORP model also predicts a novel state for the GOES 8 satellite, namely that it could periodically fall into a tumbling rotation state. Recent observations of this satellite are consistent with this prediction.     

The Morphologies and Kinematics of Supernova Remnants

We review the major advances in understanding the morphologies and kinematics of supernova remnants (SNRs). Simulations of SN explosions have improved dramatically over the last few years, and SNRs can be used to test models through comparison of predictions with SNRs’ observed large-scale compositional and morphological properties as well as the three-dimensional kinematics of ejecta material. In particular, Cassiopeia A—the youngest known core-collapse SNR in the Milky Way—offers an up-close view of the complexity of these explosive events that cannot be resolved in distant, extragalactic sources. We summarize the progress in tying SNRs to their progenitors’ explosions through imaging and spectroscopic observations, and we discuss exciting future prospects for SNR studies, such as X-ray microcalorimeters.     

Giant Planet Formation and Migration

Planets form in circumstellar discs around young stars. Starting with sub-micron sized dust particles, giant planet formation is all about growing 14 orders of magnitude in size. It has become increasingly clear over the past decades that during all stages of giant planet formation, the building blocks are extremely mobile and can change their semimajor axis by substantial amounts. In this chapter, we aim to give a basic overview of the physical processes thought to govern giant planet formation and migration, and to highlight possible links to water delivery.