Forecasting the future in space: Highlights from the TechCast Project

Space technology and activities have changed markedly from the early days of the space era and are continuing to develop rapidly. The TechCast Project—set up to pool the knowledge of experts in the scientific fields—includes space in its predictions. Here its president reports on its space forecasts for the 21st century. The importance of the shift towards the privatization of space is noted and the near-to-medium-term impossibility of interstellar travel conceded. Contact with ETI is deemed much more likely, however.     

In situ measurements to determine if Phobos is layered

The complex system of linear features on Phobos—the inner moon of Mars—found by the Viking Orbiters in 1976, can be classified morphologically into three types according to their appearance as well as their geometrical distribution on the surface. One kind of grooves appears to form arcs of small circles normal to the Phobos-Mars direction. We propose that these grooves are the surface manifestation of layering within Phobos[4–6] which could have been formed when Phobos was a part of a much larger and geologically active parent planet.Here we suggest some measurements to observe whether Phobos has a layered structure or not. The suggestion contains remote sensing measurements (particularly determination of the magnetic field by magnetometer and by electron reflection method) by a spacecraft orbiting around Mars as well as surface measurements (active seismic reflection experiment) by a landing module on Phobos.     

Influence of climatic operational conditions of a helicopter on physico-mechanical properties of composite materials

The results of numerical and experimental study of physico-mechanical properties of composite materials are proposed and variations in rigidity characteristics of the hub working part of the hingeless type within the entire range of helicopter operational temperatures are evaluated.     

ARTEMIS Mission Design

The ARTEMIS mission takes two of the five THEMIS spacecraft beyond their prime mission objectives and reuses them to study the Moon and the lunar space environment. Although the spacecraft and fuel resources were tailored to space observations from Earth orbit, sufficient fuel margins, spacecraft capability, and operational flexibility were present that with a circuitous, ballistic, constrained-thrust trajectory, new scientific information could be gleaned from the instruments near the Moon and in lunar orbit. We discuss the challenges of ARTEMIS trajectory design and describe its current implementation to address both heliophysics and planetary science objectives. In particular, we explain the challenges imposed by the constraints of the orbiting hardware and describe the trajectory solutions found in prolonged ballistic flight paths that include multiple lunar approaches, lunar flybys, low-energy trajectory segments, lunar Lissajous orbits, and low-lunar-periapse orbits. We conclude with a discussion of the risks that we took to enable the development and implementation of ARTEMIS.     

Radar Partial Coherence Theory: An Introduction

The nature of physical phenomena is such that scattering from portions of an object, a number of objects, or clutter, is not completely unrelated; the underlying environment causes some degree of order in the phenomenon. Radar partial coherence theory describes a structure for the general target, or clutter, and its relationship to radar cross section, waveform coding, and the radar output signal. The clutter ambiguity function is introduced for extended bodies and embraces the (Woodward) ambiguity function for a point target. Due to nonlinear effects caused by partial coherence within the general target, radar signals and targets are formulated in terms of mutual coherence functions. The basic quantities describing the radar output are 1) the radar mutual coherence function (formulated in terms of the radar waveform) and 2) the target mutual coherence function which depends upon target properties, physical environment, and viewing aspect. Random noise (independent point scatterers) and partially coherent portions of reflecting bodies are made accountable in the theory. Partial coherence effects are treated as patches of reflected energy: self-coherent energy patches plus mutually coherent energy among the patches.     

The bimodal magnetosphere and ring current, radiation belt, and tail transducers

It has generally been assumed that a geomagnetic storm is entirely driven by external forces—e.g., solar wind E_y = V_x × B_z, V_x, V²_x (where the components of the electric field, E, the magnetic field, B, and velocity, V, are given in GSE coordinates)—which would imply that particle injections in the ring current (RC) or outer radiation belts should be highly correlated. However the data from ISTP are showing that the magnetosphere can have at least two very different responses to the same solar wind (SW) conditions: a classic, enhanced RC with Dst response, or a 1000-fold increase in the outer radiation belt MeV electrons (ORBE). August 29, October 14 and 23, 1996 are examples of Dst storms, whereas April 15, 1996 and January 10, 1997 are examples of MeV storms. It is this second response that is so deadly to some geosynchronous spacecraft, whereas geomagnetic storms are categorized by the first response. Neither of these appear to be correlated to the SW conditions driving substorms. Why should the SW energy appear in the radiation belts or the ring current independently? We hypothesize that the RC couples to the electric power available (E_y), the ORBE couple to the mechanical power available (V_x), and the Tail couples to the magnetic energy (B_z) available in the SW. The transducer for RC may be subauroral parallel potentials, the transducer for ORBE may be the cusp, while the Tail substorm transducer is yet a third independent mechanism for extracting SW energy. Evidence for this theory comes from the novel POLAR satellite that traverses the cusp, the plasmasheet and the radiation belts.     

Is the Sun a Sun-Like Star?

Various observable properties of the Sun are compared with those of solar-type stars. It is concluded that the Sun, to a remarkable degree, is “solar-type”. As regards its particular mass and age, and probably its non-binarity, “anthropic” explanations may seem in place. The possible tendency for the Sun, as compared with similar stars, to be somewhat rich in iron relative to other elements needs further exploration. This is also true concerning its presently small micro-variability amplitude. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Transport of ions in presence of induced electric field and electrostatic turbulence: Source of ions injected into ring current

The transport of ions from the polar ionosphere to the inner magnetosphere during stormtime conditions has been computed using a Monte Carlo diffusion code. The effect of the electrostatic turbulence assumed to be present during the substorm expansion phase was simulated by a process that accelerated the ions stochastically perpendicular to the magnetic field with a diffusion coefficient proportional to the energization rate of the ions by the induced electric field. This diffusion process was continued as the ions were convected from the plasma sheet boundary layer to the double-spiral injection boundary. Inward of the injection boundary, the ions were convected adiabatically. By using as input an O⁺ flux of 2.8 × 10⁸ cm^?2 s^?1 (w > 10 eV) and an H⁺ flux of 5.5 × 10⁸ cm^?2 s^?1 (w > .63 eV), the computed distribution functions of the ions in the ring current were found to be in good agreement, over a wide range in L (4 to 8), with measurements made with the ISEE-1 satellite during a storm. This O⁺ flux and a large part of the H⁺ flux are consistent with the DE satellite measurements of the polar ionospheric outflow during disturbed times.     

Tidal associated temperature disturbances observed at the middle atmosphere (30–65 km) by a Rayleigh lidar at 23°S

A lidar has been operated in São José dos Campos, Brazil (23.2°S, 45.8°W) since 1972, mainly dedicated to the study of mesospheric sodium at the 589 nm resonant line. The molecular Rayleigh scattering can also be used provided we limit the height to ∼75 km where the sodium scattering begins. Nevertheless, the weak signal obtained only permits the determination of density and temperature profiles by accumulating a large number of shots giving only nocturnal average profiles. Temporal variations in density and temperature on the scale of hours can however, be obtained by performing a superposed epoch analysis for a given time interval and covering a period of several days. In this way we obtained hourly mean profiles grouped by months, seasons and overall, with data acquired from 1993 to 2004. The difference between the hourly temperatures and the nocturnal means shows for some months, with enough data coverage, downward propagating structures that apparently have tidal origin. The seasonal averages show a recurrent feature with high temperatures before and low temperatures after midnight above 50 km. Some similarity is found with the GSWM model, but the observed temperature amplitudes are twice of that for the model.