Statistical properties of the most powerful solar and heliospheric disturbances

We present and discuss here the first version of a data base of extreme solar and heliospheric events. The data base contains now 87 extreme events mostly since 1940. An event is classified as extreme if one of the three critical parameters passed a lower limit. The critical parameters were the X-ray flux (parameter R), solar proton flux (parameter S) and geomagnetic disturbance level (parameter G). We find that the five strongest extreme events based on four variables (X-rays SEP, Dst, Ap) are completely separate except for the October 2003 event which is one the five most extreme events according to SEP, Dst and Ap. This underlines the special character of the October 2003 event, making it unique within 35 years. We also find that the events based on R and G are rather separate, indicating that the location of even extreme flares on the solar disk is important for geomagnetic effects. We also find that S = 3 events are not extreme in the same sense as R > 3 and G > 3 events, while S = 5 events are missing so far. This suggests that it might be useful to rescale the classification of SEP fluxes.     

Specification of the Earth’s plasmasphere with data assimilation

In this paper we report on initial work toward data assimilative modeling of the Earth’s plasmasphere. As the medium of propagation for waves which are responsible for acceleration and decay of the radiation belts, an accurate assimilative model of the plasmasphere is crucial for optimizing the accurate prediction of the radiation environments encountered by satellites. On longer time-scales the plasmasphere exhibits significant dynamics. Although these dynamics are modeled well by existing models, they require detailed global knowledge of magnetospheric configuration which is not always readily available. For that reason data assimilation can be expected to be an effective tool in improving the modeling accuracy of the plasmasphere. In this paper we demonstrate that a relatively modest number of measurements, combined with a simple data assimilation scheme, inspired by the ensemble Kalman filtering data assimilation technique does a good job of reproducing the overall structure of the plasmasphere including plume development. This raises hopes that data assimilation will be an effective method for accurately representing the configuration of the plasmasphere for space weather applications.     

The Effect of Ground Reflections and Scattering on an Interferometer Direction Finder

The azimuth and elevation angles of an airborne beacon transmitter can be determined using a direction finder comprised of two orthogonal interferometers located near the earth's surface. In this paper we consider the reflection of the incident electromagnetic field by the earth's surface and the resultant effect on the direction-finding system. The analysis yields an upper bound or limit to the interferometer phase error and the corresponding error in bearing angle that can result because of specular reflection and diffuse scattering.     

Ionospheric observations made by a time-interleaved Doppler ionosonde

Mid-latitude HF observations of ionospheric Doppler velocity as a function of frequency are reported here as observed over a quiet 24-h period by a KEL IPS71 ionosonde operating at a 5-min sampling rate. The unique time-interleaving technique used in this ionosonde provided a Doppler resolution of 0.04 Hz over a Doppler range of ±2.5 Hz at each sounding frequency via FFT processing and is described here for the first time. The time-interleaving technique can be applied to other types of ionosonde as well as to other applications. The measurements described were made at a middle latitude site (Salisbury, South Australia). Doppler variations (<30 min) were ever present throughout the day and showed short-period TID characteristics. The day-time Doppler shift was found to closely follow the rate-of-change of foF2 as predicted by a simple parabolic layer model. The descending cusp in short-period TIDs is shown to mark an abrupt change with increasing frequency from negative towards positive Doppler shift with the greatest change in Doppler shift being observed below the cusp. The “smilergram” is introduced as observed in both F2 and Sporadic E. The characteristic curve in Doppler versus group height at a single frequency is described and related to changes in reflection symmetry, velocity and depth of moving ionospheric inhomogeneities.     

High energy radiation from the direction of the galactic black hole Sgr A

X-ray observations indicate that the Galactic black hole Sgr A^∗ is inactive now, however, we suggest that Sgr A^∗ can become active when a captured star is tidally disrupted and matter is accreted into the black hole. Consequently the Galactic black hole could be a powerful source of relativistic protons with a characteristic energy ∼10⁵² erg per capture. The diffuse GeV and TeV γ-rays emitted in the direction of the Galactic Center (GC) are the direct consequences of p–p collisions of such relativistic protons ejected by very recent capture events occurred ?10⁵ yr ago. On the other hand, the extended electron-positron annihilation line emission observed from GC is a phenomenon related to a large population of thermalized positrons, which are produced, cooled down and accumulated through hundreds of past capture events during a period of ∼10⁷ yr. In addition to explaining GeV, TeV and 511 keV annihilation emissions we also estimate the photon flux of several MeV resulting from in-flight annihilation process.     

Sawtooth substorms generated under conditions of the steadily high solar wind energy input into the magnetosphere: Relationship between PC, AL and ASYM indices

Periodicity in occurrence of magnetic disturbances in polar cap and auroral zone under conditions of steady and powerful solar wind influence on the magnetosphere is analyzed on the example of 9 storm events with distinctly expressed sawtooth substorms (N = 48). Relationships between the polar cap magnetic activity (PC-index), magnetic disturbances in the auroral zone (AL-index) and value of the ring current asymmetry (ASYM index) were examined within the intervals of the PC growth phase and the PC decline phase inherent to each substorm. It is shown that the substorm sudden onsets are always preceded by the PC growth and that the substorm development does not affect the PC growth rate. On achieving the disturbance maximum, the PC and AL indices are simultaneously fall down to the level preceding the substorm, so that the higher the substorm intensity, the larger is the AL and PC drop in the decline phase. The ASYM index increases and decreases in conformity with the PC and AL behavior, the correlation between ASYM and PC being better than between ASYM and AL. Level of the solar wind energy input into the magnetosphere determines periodicity and intensity of disturbances: the higher the coupling function E_KL, the higher is substorm intensity and shorter is substorm length. Taking into account the permanently high level of auroral activity and inconsistency of aurora behavior and magnetic onsets during sawtooth substorms, the conclusion is made that auroral ionosphere conductivity is typically high and ensures an extremely high intensity of field-aligned currents in R1 FAC system. The periodicity of sawtooth substorms is determined by recurrent depletions and restorations of R1 currents, which are responsible for coordinated variations of magnetic activity in the polar cap and auroral zone.     

Sensor Fault Detection in a System with Random Disturbances

Sensor faults are detected in an operating automatic system by a simplified version of the dedicated observer scheme. Control inputs are augmented by a random disturbance of moderate intensity. The dedicated observer in this case is a Kalman filter, driven by a single sensor. This filter provides estimates of the outputs from the other, nonredundant, sensors. A logical combination of these functionally redundant signals with the actual sensor signals provides prompt detection of incipient faults on all instruments without false alarms. The scheme is applied to a simulation of the lateral axis control system of a hydrofoil boat in which four sensors are to be covered by the fault detection scheme. Tests indicate that the scheme is robust with respect to variations in the intensity of the random disturbance.