An empirical approach to predicting the key parameters for a sunspot number cycle

The common methodologies used to predict the smooth sunspot number (SSN) at peak (Rmax) and the rise time (Tr) for a cycle are noted. The estimates based on geomagnetic precursors give the best prediction of Rmax for five SSN cycles (20–24). In particular, an empirical technique invoking three-cycle quasi-periodicity (TCQP) in Ap index has made accurate predictions of Rmax and Tr for two consecutive SSN cycles (23 and 24). The dynamo theories are unable to account for TCQP. If it endures in the 21st century the Sun shall enter a Dalton-like grand minimum. It was a period of global cooling. The current status of the ascending phase of cycle 24 is described and the delayed reversal of the solar polar field reversal in the southern hemisphere in September 2013 is noted.     

Stochastic processes for line shapes and intensities

Stochastic processes provide flexible and fast calculations for modeling dynamical interactions between an atom and charged particles. We use a stochastic renewal process for the plasma microfield being the cause of Stark broadening. The accuracy and improvement possibilities of Lyman profiles calculations with a renewal process are analyzed by comparing to ab initio simulations for ion broadening only. Stochastic processes may also be applied to out of equilibrium plasmas. We present our first results for the effect of Langmuir waves on a line broadened by electrons only, and for the changes of atomic populations submitted to strong temperature fluctuations.     

The Big Pine Creek watershed and climate change: A trend analysis of Landsat surface reflectance and PRISM datasets over the last 3 decades

Recent variations in normal meteorological conditions indicate the earth’s climate is changing in ways that may impact delicate ecological balances in sensitive regions. Identifying how those changes are affecting the biosphere is essential if we are going to be able to adapt to those changes and to potentially mitigate their harmful consequences. This paper presents a time series study of an alpine ecosystem in the Big Pine Creek watershed in California’s Eastern Sierra Nevada Mountain’s. Raw Landsat data covering the years 1984 through 2011 is converted to observed surface reflectance and analyzed for trends that would indicate a change in the ecosystem. We found that over the time period of the study, observed surface reflectance shows a general decline across the spectrum while our analysis of environmental data demonstrates statistically significant increases in temperatures. While declining reflectance in the visible and short wave bands are indicators of increased surface cover, the fact that the IR band also shows declines is consistent with a decline in tree density. This study provides a useful insight into the ecological response of the Big Pine Creek watershed to recent climate change. These findings suggest that alpine ecosystems are particularly sensitive to increasing temperatures. If these results are replicated in other alpine watersheds it will demonstrate that the biosphere is already showing the effects of a warmer environment.     

Analysis and pre-development of an imaging spectrometer for in-situ cometary soil analysis on-board the esa rosetta mission

The CIVA-M instrument, a highly integrated infrared/visible microscope for the Rosetta mission (ESA — 2003) is presented. It will enable scientists to study in great detail the composition of the Wirtanen Comet: minerals, organic compounds and ices. A monochromator will illuminate a cometary sample, drilled from the comet sub-surface (≈40cm). An infrared detector will give an image of the sample for each wavelength, from 1 to 4μm with a spectral resolution of 6nm and a spatial resolution of 50 μm. In order to analyze accurately spectra a signal to noise ratio of 50 is needed (for ALBEDO = 0.04). We will use a 128×128 elements photovoltaic mercury cadmium telluride bi-dimensional array working at intermediate temperature (110K to 150K), from the French company SOFRADIR. At such relatively high temperature the critical parameter is the dark current: it limits the exposure time, preventing a high signal to noise ratio. I am in charge of the electronic board, which is the interface between the detector and the on-board processor. Some preliminary results obtained with this board, on a test detector, are then discussed.     

TC-1和Geotail对亚暴过程中近地等离子体片磁扰动的联合观测

以2004年9月28日02:53:20 UT的亚暴为例, 通过TC-1在磁尾约12.5 R_e 和Geotail卫星在近地磁尾等离子体片约8～9 R_e的联合观测, 研究亚暴触发过程中近地磁尾等离子体片中等离子体波动特征. 结果表明, 亚暴触发区是近地磁尾中心等离子体片中较小的一个区域, 在亚暴触发区中低混杂不稳定性在近地磁尾等离子体片中存在, 准垂直传播的低混杂波发生在亚暴触发过程中, 而亚暴触发过程中近地磁尾等离子体片外边界区内的磁场偶极化信号和扰动都非常微弱. 在亚暴触发和亚暴膨胀相过程中出现了多次具有不同特征的磁场偶极化现象.      

Nonlinear bending-torsion flutter experiments of a medium-aspect-ratio flexible wing model

In this research a two-motion medium-aspect-ratio straight flexible wing model was tested. Tests with the wing model were conducted in the subsonic wind tunnel of the Faculty of Aerospace Engineering at the Technion, Israel. Experimental results obtained for flutter and Limit Cycle Oscillations (LCO) of the wing model are presented. At least two types of flutter and postflutter LCO have been observed. Both types were characterized by coupling between the torsional and bending modes. The first type flutter was associated with coupling of the first bending and first torsional modes, whereas the second type was observed for coupling of the first torsional and second bending modes.     

Microbially induced iron precipitation associated with a neutrophilic spring at Borra Caves, Vishakhapatnam, India

The present investigation uncovers various pieces of evidence for the possible biologically induced mineralization in iron mats associated with a pH-neutral spring in the Borra caves, Vishakhapatnam, India. Electron microscopy [scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM)] demonstrated large numbers of (i) hollow tubes (diameter ～1?μm) resembling sheaths of the iron-oxidizing bacteria Leptothrix, (ii) thin (diameter <1?μm) solid fibers of uncertain origin, (iii) nanoscale subspherical to irregularly shaped particles encrusting tubes and fibers, and (iv) aggregates of broken and partially disintegrated sheaths, fibers, and particles embedded in extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) occasionally including microbial cells. X-ray microanalyses by energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS) revealed that the mat accumulated largely Fe but also smaller amounts of Si and traces of P and Ca. Particles rich in Si and Al (possibly kaolinite) and Ca (carbonate) were also observed. High-resolution TEM/EDS of unstained ultrathin sections suggests that microbial sheaths were highly mineralized by amorphous to cryptocrystalline Fe-rich phases and less frequently by other fine-grained and fibrous authigenic claylike minerals. Total number of microorganisms in the iron mats was 5.8×10(5) cells, g sed(-1) (wet weight). Analysis of the 16S rRNA gene diversity revealed microorganisms assigned to eight different phyla [Proteobacteria (62%), Chloroflexi (8%), Bacteroidetes (7%), Planctomycetes (1%), Actinobacteria (5%), Acidobacteria (6%), Nitrospira (1%), Firmicutes (5%)]. Within the Proteobacteria, Betaproteobacteria was the predominant class, which accounted for 28% of the sequences. Within this class some obvious similarities between the obtained sequences and sequences from other cave systems could be seen, especially sequences affiliated with Leptothrix, Siderooxidans, Crenothrix, Comamonadaceae, Dechloromonas, and many uncultured Betaproteobacteria. Four (4%) of the sequences could not be assigned to phylum level but were affiliating with the candidate division TM7 (2%), candidate division OP11 (1%), and candidate division WWE3 (1%). The results allow us to infer a possible relationship of microbial sheaths, EPS, and the iron precipitates to microbial community diversity in the Borra cave springs. Understanding biogenic iron oxides in caves has important astrobiological applications as it provides a potential tool for the detection of extraterrestrial life.     

LIFE: Life Investigation For Enceladus A Sample Return Mission Concept in Search for Evidence of Life

Abstract Life Investigation For Enceladus (LIFE) presents a low-cost sample return mission to Enceladus, a body with high astrobiological potential. There is ample evidence that liquid water exists under ice coverage in the form of active geysers in the "tiger stripes" area of the southern Enceladus hemisphere. This active plume consists of gas and ice particles and enables the sampling of fresh materials from the interior that may originate from a liquid water source. The particles consist mostly of water ice and are 1-10?μ in diameter. The plume composition shows H(2)O, CO(2), CH(4), NH(3), Ar, and evidence that more complex organic species might be present. Since life on Earth exists whenever liquid water, organics, and energy coexist, understanding the chemical components of the emanating ice particles could indicate whether life is potentially present on Enceladus. The icy worlds of the outer planets are testing grounds for some of the theories for the origin of life on Earth. The LIFE mission concept is envisioned in two parts: first, to orbit Saturn (in order to achieve lower sampling speeds, approaching 2 km/s, and thus enable a softer sample collection impact than Stardust, and to make possible multiple flybys of Enceladus); second, to sample Enceladus' plume, the E ring of Saturn, and the Titan upper atmosphere. With new findings from these samples, NASA could provide detailed chemical and isotopic and, potentially, biological compositional context of the plume. Since the duration of the Enceladus plume is unpredictable, it is imperative that these samples are captured at the earliest flight opportunity. If LIFE is launched before 2019, it could take advantage of a Jupiter gravity assist, which would thus reduce mission lifetimes and launch vehicle costs. The LIFE concept offers science returns comparable to those of a Flagship mission but at the measurably lower sample return costs of a Discovery-class mission. Key Words: Astrobiology-Habitability-Enceladus-Biosignatures. Astrobiology 12, 730-742.     

Decadal variability of tropical Pacific temperature in relation to solar cycles

We use the 8-year long satellite temperature data (2002–2010) from Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) and Atmospheric Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) on the Aqua satellite to identify temperature trends in the troposphere and low stratosphere over the Niño 3.4 region of the Tropical Pacific Ocean in the most recent 11-year solar cycle. Employing more extended sea surface temperature (SST) data for five solar cycles (1950–2009) in this region we show that the satellite trends reflect a typical decrease of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Niño 3.4 region in the declining phase of the solar cycle. The magnitude of the SST decrease depends on the solar cycle and ranges between 0.07 K/yr and 0.27 K/yr for the last five solar cycles.     

Solar Wind Turbulence and the Role of Ion Instabilities

Solar wind is probably the best laboratory to study turbulence in astrophysical plasmas. In addition to the presence of magnetic field, the differences with neutral fluid isotropic turbulence are: (i) weakness of collisional dissipation and (ii) presence of several characteristic space and time scales. In this paper we discuss observational properties of solar wind turbulence in a large range from the MHD to the electron scales. At MHD scales, within the inertial range, turbulence cascade of magnetic fluctuations develops mostly in the plane perpendicular to the mean field, with the Kolmogorov scaling $k_{\perp}^{-5/3}$ for the perpendicular cascade and $k_{\|}^{-2}$ for the parallel one. Solar wind turbulence is compressible in nature: density fluctuations at MHD scales have the Kolmogorov spectrum. Velocity fluctuations do not follow magnetic field ones: their spectrum is a power-law with a ?3/2 spectral index. Probability distribution functions of different plasma parameters are not Gaussian, indicating presence of intermittency. At the moment there is no global model taking into account all these observed properties of the inertial range. At ion scales, turbulent spectra have a break, compressibility increases and the density fluctuation spectrum has a local flattening. Around ion scales, magnetic spectra are variable and ion instabilities occur as a function of the local plasma parameters. Between ion and electron scales, a small scale turbulent cascade seems to be established. It is characterized by a well defined power-law spectrum in magnetic and density fluctuations with a spectral index close to ?2.8. Approaching electron scales, the fluctuations are no more self-similar: an exponential cut-off is usually observed (for time intervals without quasi-parallel whistlers) indicating an onset of dissipation. The small scale inertial range between ion and electron scales and the electron dissipation range can be together described by $\sim k_{\perp}^{-\alpha}\exp(-k_{\perp}\ell_{d})$ , with α?8/3 and the dissipation scale ? _d close to the electron Larmor radius ? _d ?ρ _e . The nature of this small scale cascade and a possible dissipation mechanism are still under debate.