Vibrations of circular sandwich plates connected with an elastic foundation

The results of analyzing axisymmetric forced vibrations of an elastic circular sandwich plate connected with an elastic foundation under different surface loads are presented. The hypotheses of a broken normal are accepted to describe the kinematics of a package that is nonsymmetrical over the thickness. The analytical solutions of a problem for plates with a light filler are obtained and numerical analysis is carried out.     

Forecasting the 23 and 24 solar cycles on the basis of MGM spectrum

A new method of nonlinear spectral analysis (called the method of global minimum: MGM), based on the best presentation (in sense of minimal squares) of a given time data set as a sum of sinusoids whose frequencies, amplitudes and phases are to be determined, has been used to find periodicities in annual Wolf sunspot numbers (W) during the period 1700–1995. The possible future behaviour of the 11-year solar cycle (based on an extrapolation of the calculated model) is also presented. The main characteristics of the 23^rd solar cycle are as follows: the W maximum occurs about 2004, with a peak of nearly 220. An unusually large value of W will occur during the 23^rd cycle, which should be characterised by the longest maximum, specifically, W will be greater than 100 during the 11-year period from 1997 to 2007. The first sharp rise will occur during the period 1996–1998, the second sharp during 2002–2004. The main features of the 24 year cycle are as follows: the next minimum in W, associated with the 24^th solar cycle, should occur in the year 2008 and the maximum in 2014. W is expected to peak at about 180. The minimum value for the 25^th year cycle is expected to occur in the year 2019. It is shown that the accuracy of these predictions depends, first of all, on the extrapolation of the hyperlong harmonic of the calculated polyharmonic model fit of observed annual sunspot numbers during the period 1700–1995. The error bars in the definition of the maximum and minimum epochs can be as large as two years.     

Modeling of ionospheric parameter variations in East Asia during the moderate geomagnetic disturbances

The results of modeling of ionospheric disturbances observed in the East Asian region during moderate storms are presented. The numerical model for ionosphere–plasmasphere coupling developed at the ISTP SB RAS is used to interpret the data of observations at ionospheric stations located in the longitudinal sector of 90–130°E at latitudes from auroral zone to equator. There is obtained a reasonable agreement between measurements and modeling results for winter and equinox. In the summer ionosphere, at the background of high ionization by the solar EUV radiation in the quiet geomagnetic period the meridional thermospheric wind strongly impacts the electron concentration in the middle and auroral ionosphere. The consistent calculations of the thermospheric wind permit to obtain the model results which are closer to summer observations. The actual information about the space-time variations of thermosphere and magnetosphere parameters should be taken into account during storms.