Projecting technology change to improve space technology planning and systems management

Projecting technology performance evolution has been improving over the years. Reliable quantitative forecasting methods have been developed that project the growth, diffusion, and performance of technology in time, including projecting technology substitutions, saturation levels, and performance improvements. These forecasts can be applied at the early stages of space technology planning to better predict available future technology performance, assure the successful selection of technology, and improve technology systems management strategy.Often what is published as a technology forecast is simply scenario planning, usually made by extrapolating current trends into the future, with perhaps some subjective insight added. Typically, the accuracy of such predictions falls rapidly with distance in time. Quantitative technology forecasting (QTF), on the other hand, includes the study of historic data to identify one of or a combination of several recognized universal technology diffusion or substitution patterns. In the same manner that quantitative models of physical phenomena provide excellent predictions of system behavior, so do QTF models provide reliable technological performance trajectories.In practice, a quantitative technology forecast is completed to ascertain with confidence when the projected performance of a technology or system of technologies will occur. Such projections provide reliable time-referenced information when considering cost and performance trade-offs in maintaining, replacing, or migrating a technology, component, or system.This paper introduces various quantitative technology forecasting techniques and illustrates their practical application in space technology and technology systems management.     

Solar Nebula Magnetohydrodynamics

The dynamical state of the solar nebula depends critically upon whether or not the gas is magnetically coupled. The presence of a subthermal field will cause laminar flow to break down into turbulence. Magnetic coupling, in turn, depends upon the ionization fraction of the gas. The inner most region of the nebula (≲0.1 AU) is magnetically well-coupled, as is the outermost region (≳10 AU). The magnetic status of intermediate scales (∼1 AU) is less certain. It is plausible that there is a zone adjacent to the inner disk in which turbulent heating self-consistently maintains the requisite ionization levels. But the region adjacent to the active outer disk is likely to be magnetically ``dead.' Hall currents play a significant role in nebular magnetohydrodynamics. Though still occasionally argued in the literature, there is simply no evidence to support the once standard claim that differential rotation in a Keplerian disk is prone to break down into shear turbulence by nonlinear instabilities. There is abundant evidence—numerical, experimental, and analytic—in support of the stabilizing role of Coriolis forces. Hydrodynamical turbulence is almost certainly not a source of enhanced turbulence in the solar nebula, or in any other astrophysical accretion disk. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Venus Atmospheric Thermal Structure and Radiative Balance

From the discovery that Venus has an atmosphere during the 1761 transit by M. Lomonosov to the current exploration of the planet by the Akatsuki orbiter, we continue to learn about the planet’s extreme climate and weather. This chapter attempts to provide a comprehensive but by no means exhaustive review of the results of the atmospheric thermal structure and radiative balance since the earlier works published in Venus and Venus II books from recent spacecraft and Earth based investigations and summarizes the gaps in our current knowledge. There have been no in-situ measurements of the deep Venus atmosphere since the flights of the two VeGa balloons and landers in 1985 (Sagdeev et al., Science 231:1411–1414, 1986). Thus, most of the new information about the atmospheric thermal structure has come from different remote sensing (Earth based and spacecraft) techniques using occultations (solar infrared, stellar ultraviolet and orbiter radio occultations), spectroscopy and microwave, short wave and thermal infrared emissions. The results are restricted to altitudes higher than about 40 km, except for one investigation of the near surface static stability inferred by Meadows and Crisp (J. Geophys. Res. 101:4595–4622, 1996) from 1 \(\upmu\)m observations from Earth. Little information about the lower atmospheric structure is possible below about 40 km altitude from radio occultations due to large bending angles. The gaps in our knowledge include spectral albedo variations over time, vertical variation of the bulk composition of the atmosphere (mean molecular weight), the identity, properties and abundances of absorbers of incident solar radiation in the clouds. The causes of opacity variations in the nightside cloud cover and vertical gradients in the deep atmosphere bulk composition and its impact on static stability are also in need of critical studies. The knowledge gaps and questions about Venus and its atmosphere provide the incentive for obtaining the necessary measurements to understand the planet, which can provide some clues to learn about terrestrial exoplanets.     

Water and Volatile Inventories of Mercury,Venus, the Moon,and Mars

We review the geochemical observations of water, \(\mbox{D}/\mbox{H}\) and volatile element abundances of the inner Solar System bodies, Mercury, Venus, the Moon, and Mars. We focus primarily on the inventories of water in these bodies, but also consider other volatiles when they can inform us about water. For Mercury, we have no data for internal water, but the reducing nature of the surface of Mercury would suggest that some hydrogen may be retained in its core. We evaluate the current knowledge and understanding of venusian water and volatiles and conclude that the venusian mantle was likely endowed with as much water as Earth of which it retains a small but non-negligible fraction. Estimates of the abundance of the Moon’s internal water vary from Earth-like to one to two orders of magnitude more depleted. Cl, K, and Zn isotope anomalies for lunar samples argue that the giant impact left a unique geochemical fingerprint on the Moon, but not the Earth. For Mars, an early magma ocean likely generated a thick crust; this combined with a lack of crustal recycling mechanisms would have led to early isolation of the Martian mantle from later delivery of water and volatiles from surface reservoirs or late accretion. The abundance estimates of Martian mantle water are similar to those of the terrestrial mantle, suggesting some similarities in the water and volatile inventories for the terrestrial planets and the Moon.     

Ion Composition of the Earth’s Radiation Belts in the Range from 100 keV to $100\mbox{ MeV}/\mbox{nucleon}$: Fifty Years of Research

Spatial, energy and angular distributions of ion fluxes in the Earth’s radiation belts (ERB) near the equatorial plane, at middle geomagnetic latitudes and at low altitudes are systematically reviewed herein. Distributions of all main ion components, from protons to Fe (including hydrogen and helium isotopes), and their variations under the action of solar and geomagnetic activity are considered. For ions with \(Z\geq 2\) and especially for ions with \(Z \geq 9\), these variations are much more than for protons, and these have no direct connection with the intensity of magnetic storms (\(Z\) is the charge of the atomic nucleus with respect to the charge of the proton). The main physical mechanisms for the generation of ion fluxes in the ERB and the losses of these ions are considered. Solar wind, Solar Cosmic Rays (SCR), Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR), and Anomalous component of Cosmic Rays (ACR) as sources of ions in the ERB are considered.     

Daytime O/N<Subscript>2</Subscript> Retrieval Algorithm for the Ionospheric Connection Explorer (ICON)

The NASA Ionospheric Connection Explorer Far-Ultraviolet spectrometer, ICON FUV, will measure altitude profiles of the daytime far-ultraviolet (FUV) OI 135.6 nm and N₂ Lyman-Birge-Hopfield (LBH) band emissions that are used to determine thermospheric density profiles and state parameters related to thermospheric composition; specifically the thermospheric column O/N₂ ratio (symbolized as \(\Sigma\)O/N₂). This paper describes the algorithm concept that has been adapted and updated from one previously applied with success to limb data from the Global Ultraviolet Imager (GUVI) on the NASA Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) mission. We also describe the requirements that are imposed on the ICON FUV to measure \(\Sigma\)O/N₂ over any 500-km sample in daytime with a precision of better than 8.7%. We present results from orbit-simulation testing that demonstrates that the ICON FUV and our thermospheric composition retrieval algorithm can meet these requirements and provide the measurements necessary to address ICON science objectives.     

Pulsar Timing and Its Application for Navigation and Gravitational Wave Detection

Pulsars are natural cosmic clocks. On long timescales they rival the precision of terrestrial atomic clocks. Using a technique called pulsar timing, the exact measurement of pulse arrival times allows a number of applications, ranging from testing theories of gravity to detecting gravitational waves. Also an external reference system suitable for autonomous space navigation can be defined by pulsars, using them as natural navigation beacons, not unlike the use of GPS satellites for navigation on Earth. By comparing pulse arrival times measured on-board a spacecraft with predicted pulse arrivals at a reference location (e.g. the solar system barycenter), the spacecraft position can be determined autonomously and with high accuracy everywhere in the solar system and beyond. We describe the unique properties of pulsars that suggest that such a navigation system will certainly have its application in future astronautics. We also describe the on-going experiments to use the clock-like nature of pulsars to “construct” a galactic-sized gravitational wave detector for low-frequency (\(f_{GW}\sim 10^{-9} \text{--} 10^{-7}\) Hz) gravitational waves. We present the current status and provide an outlook for the future.     

SPHERES flight operations testing and execution

Synchronized Position Hold Engage Reorient Experimental Satellites (SPHERES) is a formation flight testing facility consisting of three satellites operating inside the International Space Station (ISS). The goal is to use the long term microgravity environment of the ISS to mature formation flight and docking algorithms. The operations processes of SPHERES have also matured over the course of the first seven test sessions. This paper describes the evolution of the SPHERES program operations processes from conception to implementation to refinement through flight experience. Modifications to the operations processes were based on experience and feedback from Marshall Space Flight Center Payload Operations Center, USAF Space Test Program office at Johnson Space Center, and the crew of Expedition 13 (first to operate SPHERES on station). Important lessons learned were on aspects such as test session frequency, determination of session success, and contingency operations. This paper describes the tests sessions; then it details the lessons learned, the change in processes, and the impact on the outcome of later test sessions. SPHERES had very successful initial test sessions which allowed for modification and tailoring of the operations processes to streamline the code delivery and to tailor responses based on flight experiences.     

Determination of attitude motion of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">Foton M-3</Emphasis> satellite according to the data of onboard measurements of the Earth’s magnetic field

The results of reconstruction of rotational motion of the Foton M-3 satellite during its uncontrolled flight in September 2007 are presented. The reconstruction was performed by processing the data of onboard measurements of the Earth’s magnetic field obtained by the DIMAC instruments. The measurements were carried out continuously throughout the flight, but the processing technique dealt with the data portions covering time intervals of a few orbital revolutions. The data obtained on each such interval were processed jointly by the least squares method with using integration of the equations of satellite motion relative to its center of mass. When processing, the initial conditions of motion and the used mathematical model’s parameters were estimated. The results of processing 16 data sets gave us complete information about the satellite motion. This motion, which began at a low angular velocity, had gradually accelerated and in five days became close to the regular Euler precession of an axisymmetric solid body. At the end of uncontrolled flight the angular velocity of the satellite relative to its lengthwise axis was 0.5 deg/s; the angular velocity projection onto the plane perpendicular to this axis had a magnitude of about 0.18 deg/s.