基于"序列相对贴近度"的组合预测权值分配

在时间序列的组合预测权值分配问题上,为克服传统的均方误差倒数加权、熵权和最优化方法之不足,从预测值序列与评价样本序列间的贴近性出发,提出新方法综合衡量单一参与模型的适用性,并据此分配权值.详细给出了序列相对贴近度(SRND,Sequence Relative Nearness Degree)及与之相关的"序列趋势关联度"和"尺度区间熵"的概念,并提出基于SRND的权值分配方法.将SRND权值分配方法应用于航空发动机排气温度裕度参数时间序列的联合自回归滑动平均模型、函数系数自回归模型和径向基函数网络预测,有效地提高了预测准确度,获得优于均方误差倒数加权和熵权方法的组合性能,且运算量远小于最优化方法.     

Short-term variation of cosmic ray diurnal anisotropy and solar activity

A correlative analysis has been made between cosmic ray intensity and solar activity (sunspot numbers) during high amplitude days for the period 1991–1995. The high amplitude days with the time of maximum in the corotational/azimuthal direction do not indicate any significant correlation with solar activity. The diurnal amplitude significantly remains constant and high (0.5%) during the entire period. Our observations suggest that the direction of the anisotropy of high amplitude anisotropic wave train events contribute significantly to the short-term behavior of the cosmic ray diurnal anisotropy. The correlation coefficient is found to remain positive during solar activity maximum for all the high amplitude anisotropic wave train events.     

Energy dependence of the characteristic decay time of proton fluxes in solar cosmic ray events

Energetic solar proton events within the energy interval 1–48 MeV at the stage of their decay are considered over the period of 1974–2001. The dependence of the characteristic decay time on the proton energy in the assumed power-law representation τ(E) =E ^?n is analyzed for the events with an exponential decay form. The dependence of n on the heliolongitude of the flare (the particles source on the Sun) is studied.     

Optimization of multi-mode rendezvous trajectories with constraints

Approximate numerical methods of optimization of spacecraft rendezvous trajectories are presented that make use of interior point algorithms for problems of linear programming of high dimensionality (tens to hundreds of thousands of variables). The basis of the methods is discretization of a trajectory into small segments in which maneuvers are allowed to be executed; for all segments sets of pseudo-impulses are introduced that determine the possible directions of the spacecraft thrust vector. The terminal conditions are presented in the form of a linear matrix equation. A matrix inequality for the sums of characteristic velocities of pseudo-impulses on each segment is used to make a transformation to the linear programming form. Spacecraft rendezvous trajectories are considered in the neighborhood of circular orbits with the use of multi-mode propulsion systems (including those with low thrust) and existence of boundary conditions at interior points and constraints on the time of operation of the propulsion system at separate segments of the trajectory.     

Identification of sources of Pc1 geomagnetic pulsations on the basis of proton aurora observations

The relationship between proton aurora and geomagnetic pulsations Pc1, which are an indicator of development of ion-cyclotron instability in the equatorial magnetosphere, are studied on the basis of the observations of proton aurora from the IMAGE satellite, observations of particle fluxes onboard the low-orbiting NOAA satellites, and geomagnetic pulsation observations at the Lovozero observatory. A conclusion is drawn that the subauroral spots in the proton emission projected into the magnetosphere near the plasmapause are two-dimensional images at the ionospheric “screen” of the region of intense scattering of energetic protons into the loss cone at the development of an ion-cyclotron instability.     

Alfven modes of solar coronal magnetic arches: Excitation of ballooning instability and modulation of flare emission

The effect of Alfven-type oscillations in a coronal magnetic arch on modulation of the gyrosynchrotron radiation and development of the ballooning instability in the arch is considered. On the basis of the energy method and the method of normal modes, the expressions are obtained for increments of ballooning instability at its swinging by natural oscillations of the arch. The conclusion is drawn that bending oscillations, which do not actually compress the plasma and, therefore, represent the Alfven-type modes, unlike the radial oscillations, are capable, under solar corona conditions, to effectively swing ballooning instability and, as a consequence, play a part of a trigger for solar flares. The ballooning instability of coronal arches is shown to be capable of causing formation of helmet-shaped structures in the lower solar corona. On the basis of calculations of the intensity modulation depth and the degree of circular polarization of non-thermal gyrosynchrotron radiation, under the assumption of excited Alfven oscillations of a coronal arch, the conclusion is drawn, that microwave observations at a frequency of > 10 GHz can be used for studying the conditions of excitation and propagation of Alfven modes in flare loops. The consequences of obtained results are discussed using the flare on April 15, 2002 as an example.     

Planetary waves according to simultaneous observations of <Emphasis Type="Italic">GPS</Emphasis> satellites and ground-based magnetic stations

On the basis of measurements made at Japanese magnetic stations and using GPS satellites for the 12 months of 2003, a comparison of simultaneous variations of three components of the magnetic field and total electron content (TEC) was carried out in the range of the planetary waves period. The correlation analysis has shown that almost synchronous variations exist within this range of periods at the ground-based magnetometer stations and in the TEC measurements both during strong magnetic disturbances and in quiet periods. The strong magnetic disturbances could be considered as a possible independent source of ionospheric variations within the planetary waves range, while the accompanying ionospheric storms could be a possible factor changing the conductivity of the lower ionosphere plasma. In quiet periods, the correlation of magnetic variations and disturbances in TEC is caused by the direct impact of atmospheric planetary waves on the lower ionosphere and can be related to variations of ionospheric currents due to the dynamo mechanism.     

An analysis of low-frequency component in microacceleration measurements made onboard the <Emphasis Type="Italic">Foton M-2</Emphasis> satellite

The low-frequency component is investigated in the data of measurements performed onboard the Foton M-2 satellite with the three-component accelerometer TAS-3. Investigations consisted in comparison of this component with its calculated analog found from a reconstruction of the satellite’s attitude motion. The influence of the Earth’s magnetic field on the accelerometer readings is discovered by way of spectral analysis of the functions representing the results of determining the low-frequency microacceleration by two methods. After making correction for this influence, the results obtained by these two methods coincided within a root-mean-square error of less than 10^?6 m/s².     

Turbulent fluctuations of plasma and magnetic field parameters in the magnetosheath and the low-latitude boundary layer formation: Multisatellite observations on March 2, 1996

The results of simultaneous analysis of plasma and magnetic field characteristics measured on the INTERBALL/Tail Probe, WIND and Geotail satellites on March 2, 1996, are presented. During these observations the INTERBALL/Tail Probe crossed the low-latitude boundary layer, and the WIND and Geotail satellites measured the solar wind’s and magnetosheath’s parameters, respectively. The plasma and magnetic field characteristics in these regions have been compared. The data of the Corall, Electron, and MIF instruments on the INTERBALL/Tail Probe satellite are analyzed. Fluctuations of the magnetic field components and plasma velocity in the solar wind and magnetosheath, measured onboard the WIND and Geotail satellites, are compared. The causes resulting in appearance of plasma jet flows in the low-latitude boundary layer are analyzed. The amplitude of magnetic field fluctuations in the magnetosheath for a studied magnetosphere boundary crossing is shown to exceed the magnetic field value below the magnetopause near the cusp. The possibility of local violation of pressure balance on the magnetopause is discussed, as well as penetration of magnetosheath plasma into the magnetosphere, as a result of magnetic field and plasma flux fluctuations in the magnetosheath.     

原位自生TiB2p/Cu基复合材料微观组织及性能

文摘利用Cu、Ti、B三种粉末,反应热压制备了原位TiB2p/Cu复合材料,采用XRD、扫描电镜和透射电镜分析了原位复合材料的显微组织。热压状态下,XRD分析表明材料体系在一定的工艺条件下能够完全生成TiB2p;SEM分析表明,TiB2颗粒在基体Cu中弥散、均匀分布;TEM分析发现TiB2颗粒呈六边形,尺寸约为几十微米。TiB2颗粒与基体结合良好,界面清洁,无污染。TiB2p/Cu复合材料的显微硬度及拉伸性能较基体Cu都有所提高。