A comparative study of ionospheric IRIEup and ISP assimilative models during some intense and severe geomagnetic storms

Three-dimensional (3-D) electron density matrices, computed in the Mediterranean area by the IRI climatological model and IRIEup and ISP nowcasting models, during some intense and severe geomagnetic-ionospheric storms, were ingested by the ray tracing software tool IONORT, to synthesize quasi-vertical ionograms. IRIEup model was run in different operational modes: (1) assimilating validated autoscaled electron density profiles only from a limited area which, in our case, is the Mediterranean sector (IRIEup_re(V) mode); (2) assimilating electron density profiles from a larger region including several stations spread across Europe: (a) without taking care of validating the autoscaled data in the assimilation process (IRIEup(NV)); (b) validating carefully the autoscaled electron density profiles before their assimilation (IRIEup(V)).The comparative analysis was carried out comparing IRI, IRIEup_re(V), ISP, IRIEup(NV), and IRIEup(V) foF2 synthesized values, with corresponding foF2 measurements autoscaled by ARTIST, and then validated, at the truth sites of Roquetes (40.80°N, 0.50°E, Spain), San Vito (40.60°N, 17.80°E, Italy), Athens (38.00°N, 23.50°E, Greece), and Nicosia, (35.03°N, 33.16°E, Cyprus). The outcomes demonstrate that: (1) IRIEup_re(V), performs better than ISP in the western Mediterranean (around Roquetes); (2) ISP performs slightly better than IRIEup_re(V) in the central part of Mediterranean (around Athens and San Vito); (3) ISP performance is better than the IRIEup_re(V) one in the eastern Mediterranean (around Nicosia); (4) IRIEup(NV) performance is worse than the IRIEup(V) one; (5) in the central Mediterranean area, IRIEup(V) performance is better than the IRIEup_re(V) one, and it is practically the same for the western and eastern sectors.Concerning the overall performance, nowcasting models proved to be considerably more reliable than the climatological IRI model to represent the ionosphere behaviour during geomagnetic-ionospheric storm conditions; ISP and IRIEup(V) provided the best performance, but neither of them has clearly prevailed over the other one.     

MMS星座对磁层顶磁通量绳内离子惯性尺度结构的观测

利用MMS观测数据,对磁层顶通量绳内离子惯性尺度（d_i）的结构进行分析研究.结果发现,许多不同尺度（约1d_i至数十d_i）的通量绳内都存在具有d_i尺度的电流 j _m,其方向在磁层顶局地坐标系的-M方向,即与磁层顶查普曼-费拉罗电流同向,由电子在+M方向的运动（ v _em）携带.这些电流结构具有以下特征：磁鞘与磁层成分混合,磁场为开放形态;离子去磁化,电子与磁场冻结;N方向（即垂直于磁层顶电流片方向）的电场 E _n显著增大,幅度达到约20mV·m^-1,并伴有明显的尖峰状起伏,该增强和尖峰状起伏的电场对应于霍尔电场.分析表明,电流、电子与离子运动的偏离以及霍尔电场之间遵从广义欧姆定律,三者密切关联.进一步对磁层顶磁重联的探测数据进行分析发现,在很多重联区内也存在与通量绳内相似的结构,其尺度约为d_i量级,其中霍尔电场 E _N、电流 j _M和电子速度 v _eM均与通量绳内对应物理量的方向相同且幅度相近.基于上述观测事实,采用经典FTE通量绳模型,对通量绳内电流、电子运动和霍尔电场的起源进行了初步探讨,认为其来源于磁层顶无碰撞磁重联区内的相应结构,并且后者在离子尺度通量绳的形成过程中起到重要作用.     

Analytical-HZETRN model for rapid assessment of active magnetic radiation shielding

The use of active radiation shielding designs has the potential to reduce the radiation exposure received by astronauts on deep-space missions at a significantly lower mass penalty than designs utilizing only passive shielding. Unfortunately, the determination of the radiation exposure inside these shielded environments often involves lengthy and computationally intensive Monte Carlo analysis. In order to evaluate the large trade space of design parameters associated with a magnetic radiation shield design, an analytical model was developed for the determination of flux inside a solenoid magnetic field due to the Galactic Cosmic Radiation (GCR) radiation environment. This analytical model was then coupled with NASA’s radiation transport code, HZETRN, to account for the effects of passive/structural shielding mass. The resulting model can rapidly obtain results for a given configuration and can therefore be used to analyze an entire trade space of potential variables in less time than is required for even a single Monte Carlo run. Analyzing this trade space for a solenoid magnetic shield design indicates that active shield bending powers greater than ∼15 Tm and passive/structural shielding thicknesses greater than 40 g/cm² have a limited impact on reducing dose equivalent values. Also, it is shown that higher magnetic field strengths are more effective than thicker magnetic fields at reducing dose equivalent.     

Investigation of ionospheric response to two moderate geomagnetic storms using GPS–TEC measurements in the South American and African sectors during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24

The responses of the ionospheric F region using GPS–TEC measurements during two moderate geomagnetic storms at equatorial, low-, and mid-latitude regions over the South American and African sectors in May 2010, during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24, are investigated. The first moderate geomagnetic storm studied reached a minimum Dst value of −64 nT at 1500 UT on 02 May 2010 and the second moderate geomagnetic storm reached a minimum Dst value of −85 nT at 1400 UT on 29 May 2010. In this paper, we present vertical total electron content (VTEC) and phase fluctuations (in TECU/min) from Global Positioning System (GPS) observations from the equatorial to mid-latitude regions in the South American and African sectors. Our results obtained during these two moderate geomagnetic storms from both sectors show significant positive ionospheric storms during daytime hours at the equatorial, low-, and mid-latitude regions during the main and recovery phases of the storms. The thermospheric wind circulation change towards the equator is a strong indicator that suggests an important mechanism is responsible for these positive phases at these regions. A pre-storm event that was observed in the African sector from low- to the mid-latitude regions on 01 May 2010 was absent in the South American sector. This study also showed that there was no generation or suppression of ionospheric irregularities by storm events. Therefore, knowledge about the suppression and generation of ionospheric irregularities during moderate geomagnetic storms is still unclear.     

Assessment of precision in ionospheric electron density profiles retrieved by GPS radio occultations

The Constellation Observing System for Meteorology Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) is a six satellite radio occultation mission that was launched in April 2006. The close proximity of these satellites during some months after launch provides a unique opportunity to evaluate the precision of Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO) retrievals of ionospheric electron density from nearly collocated and simultaneous observations. RO data from 30 consecutive days during July and August 2006 are divided into ten groups in terms of daytime or nighttime and latitude. In all cases, the best precision values (about 1%) are found at the F peak height and they slightly degrade upwards. For all daytime groups, it is seen that electron density profiles above about 120 km height exhibit a substantial improvement in precision. Nighttime groups are rather diverse: in particular, the precision becomes better than 10% above different levels between 120 and 200 km height. Our overall results show that up to 100–200 km (depending on each group), the uncertainty associated with the precision is in the order of the measured electron density values. Even worse, the retrieved values tend sometimes to be negative. Although we cannot rely directly on electron density values at these altitudes, the shape of the profiles could be indicative of some ionospheric features (e.g. waves and sporadic E layers). Above 200 km, the profiles of precision are qualitatively quite independent from daytime or latitude. From all the nearly collocated pairs studied, only 49 exhibited a difference between line of sight angles of both RO at the F peak height larger than 10°. After analyzing them we find no clear indications of a significant representativeness error in electron density profiles due to the spherical assumption above 120 km height. Differences in precision between setting and rising GPS RO may be attributed to the modification of the processing algorithms applied to rising cases during the initial period of the COSMIC mission.     

The role of space related non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in capacity building

Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) play a unique role in international affairs, providing access to resources, expertise, and assistance to supplement State resources. Sometimes the diplomatic skills and unofficial access of NGOs to policymakers through Track Two diplomacy can move a previously stalled critical issue forward and assist policymakers from different countries to find common ground outside official channels. Because they work outside of official channels, they are not bound by State policy that may inhibit negotiations between States. Some also have a convening power that sometimes makes it possible for State representatives to meet discipline experts and each other for informal discussions on issues of mutual interest. Finally, NGOs can draw attention to issues that may be overlooked or avoided by State organizations.     

Probing the first stars and black holes in the early Universe with the Dark Ages Radio Explorer (DARE)

A concept for a new space-based cosmology mission called the Dark Ages Radio Explorer (DARE) is presented in this paper. DARE’s science objectives include: (1) When did the first stars form? (2) When did the first accreting black holes form? (3) When did Reionization begin? (4) What surprises does the end of the Dark Ages hold (e.g., Dark Matter decay)? DARE will use the highly-redshifted hyperfine 21-cm transition from neutral hydrogen to track the formation of the first luminous objects by their impact on the intergalactic medium during the end of the Dark Ages and during Cosmic Dawn (redshifts z = 11–35). It will measure the sky-averaged spin temperature of neutral hydrogen at the unexplored epoch 80–420 million years after the Big Bang, providing the first evidence of the earliest stars and galaxies to illuminate the cosmos and testing our models of galaxy formation. DARE’s approach is to measure the expected spectral features in the sky-averaged, redshifted 21-cm signal over a radio bandpass of 40–120 MHz. DARE orbits the Moon for a mission lifetime of 3 years and takes data above the lunar farside, the only location in the inner solar system proven to be free of human-generated radio frequency interference and any significant ionosphere. The science instrument is composed of a low frequency radiometer, including electrically-short, tapered, bi-conical dipole antennas, a receiver, and a digital spectrometer. The smooth frequency response of the antennas and the differential spectral calibration approach using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique will be applied to detect the weak cosmic 21-cm signal in the presence of the intense solar system and Galactic foreground emissions.     

Modified energy cascade model adapted for a multicrop Lunar greenhouse prototype

Models are required to accurately predict mass and energy balances in a bioregenerative life support system. A modified energy cascade model was used to predict outputs of a multi-crop (tomatoes, potatoes, lettuce and strawberries) Lunar greenhouse prototype. The model performance was evaluated against measured data obtained from several system closure experiments. The model predictions corresponded well to those obtained from experimental measurements for the overall system closure test period (five months), especially for biomass produced (0.7% underestimated), water consumption (0.3% overestimated) and condensate production (0.5% overestimated). However, the model was less accurate when the results were compared with data obtained from a shorter experimental time period, with 31%, 48% and 51% error for biomass uptake, water consumption, and condensate production, respectively, which were obtained under more complex crop production patterns (e.g. tall tomato plants covering part of the lettuce production zones). These results, together with a model sensitivity analysis highlighted the necessity of periodic characterization of the environmental parameters (e.g. light levels, air leakage) in the Lunar greenhouse.     

Mechanism of error propagation from the subdaily Universal Time model into the celestial pole offsets estimated by VLBI

Within the analysis of space geodetic observations, errors of the applied subdaily Earth rotation model can induce systematic effects in different estimated parameters. In this paper, we focus on the impact of the subdaily Universal Time (UT1) model on the celestial pole offsets (CPO) estimated from very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) observations. We provide a mechanism that describes the error propagation from the subdaily UT1 into the daily CPO.In typical 24-h VLBI sessions the observed quasars are well distributed over the sky. But the observations, if looked at from the Earth-fixed frame, are not homogeneously distributed. The amount of observations performed in different terrestrial directions shows an irregularity which can be roughly compared to the case where the observations are collected in only one Earth-fixed direction. This peculiarity leads to artefacts in VLBI solutions, producing a correlation between the subdaily variations in UT1 and the position of the celestial pole. As a result errors in diurnal terms of the subdaily UT1 model are partly compensated by the estimated CPO. We compute for each 24-h VLBI session from 1990 until 2011 the theoretical response of the CPO to an error in the subdaily UT1 by setting up a least-squares adjustment model and using as input the coordinates of the observed quasars and observation epochs. Then real observed response of the estimated CPO derived from the VLBI session solutions is compared to the predicted one. A very good agreement between the CPO values estimated from VLBI and the predicted values was achieved. The presented model of error propagation from the subdaily UT1 into the daily CPO allows to predict and explain the behaviour of CPO estimates of VLBI solutions computed with different subdaily Earth rotation models, what can be helpful for testing the accuracy of different subdaily tidal models.