The statistical properties of coronal mass ejections during 1979–1981

The Solwind coronagraph on the P78-1 earth-orbiting satellite has been monitoring the Sun routinely at 10-minute intervals during the 5-year interval from April, 1979 to the present. In a statistical analysis of about 1000 mass ejections observed through the end of 1981, we find an average occurrence rate of 1.8 mass ejections per day. Histograms of speed, central latitude, angular span, brightness, and other parameters have been constructed, and properties such as shape classification have been tabulated. These characteristics are summarized for these years near sunspot maximum. The average speed and mass estimate are found to be similar to those found at the declining phase of the previous sunspot cycle. The angular span and central latitude distributions are quite different than seen during the declining phase, and are very dependent upon structural class. The fluctuations in the occurrence rate of CMEs does not seem to match the fluctuations in the sunspot number. There is a tendency for high speed CMEs to occur more frequently in 1981 than in 1980, and more frequently in 1980 than in 1979.     

A technique for estimating the probability of radiation-stimulated failures of integrated microcircuits in low-intensity radiation fields: Application to the Spektr-R spacecraft

In developing radio-electronic devices (RED) of spacecraft operating in the fields of ionizing radiation in space, one of the most important problems is the correct estimation of their radiation tolerance. The “weakest link” in the element base of onboard microelectronic devices under radiation effect is the integrated microcircuits (IMC), especially of large scale (LSI) and very large scale (VLSI) degree of integration. The main characteristic of IMC, which is taken into account when making decisions on using some particular type of IMC in the onboard RED, is the probability of non-failure operation (NFO) at the end of the spacecraft’s lifetime. It should be noted that, until now, the NFO has been calculated only from the reliability characteristics, disregarding the radiation effect. This paper presents the so-called “reliability” approach to determination of radiation tolerance of IMC, which allows one to estimate the probability of non-failure operation of various types of IMC with due account of radiation-stimulated dose failures. The described technique is applied to RED onboard the Spektr-R spacecraft to be launched in 2007.     

The Solar Chemical Composition

We present our current knowledge of the solar chemical composition based on the recent significant downward revision of the solar photospheric abundances of the most abundant metals. These new solar abundances result from the use of a 3D hydrodynamic model of the solar atmosphere instead of the classical 1D hydrostatic models, accounting for departures from LTE, and improved atomic and molecular data. With these abundances, the new solar metallicity, Z, decreases to Z=0.012, almost a factor of two lower than earlier widely used values. We compare our values with data from other sources and analyse a number of impacts of these new photospheric abundances. While resolving a number of longstanding problems, the new 3D-based solar photospheric composition also poses serious challenges for the standard solar model as judged by helioseismology.     

Relationship Between Substorm Auroras and Processes in the Near-Earth Magnetotail

Although the auroral substorm has been long regarded as a manifestation of the magnetospheric substorm, a direct relation of active auroras to certain magnetospheric processes is still debatable. To investigate the relationship, we combine the data of the UV imager onboard the Polar satellite with plasma and magnetic field measurements by the Geotail spacecraft. The poleward edge of the auroral bulge, as determined from the images obtained at the LHBL passband, is found to be conjugated with the region where the oppositely directed fast plasma flows observed in the near-Earth plasma sheet during substorms are generated. We conclude that the auroras forming the bulge are due to the near-Earth reconnection process. This implies that the magnetic flux through the auroral bulge is equal to the flux dissipated in the magnetotail during the substorm. Comparison of the magnetic flux through the auroral bulge with the magnetic flux accumulated in the tail lobe during the growth phase shows that these parameters have the comparable values. This is a clear evidence of the loading–unloading scheme of substorm development. It is shown that the area of the auroral bulge developing during substorm is proportional to the total (magnetic plus plasma) pressure decrease in the magnetotail. These findings stress the importance of auroral bulge observations for monitoring of substorm intensity in terms of the magnetic flux and energy dissipation.     

M-ary CPSK Detection with Noisy Reference and Interferences

A general expression of the error probability on an M-ary coherent phase-shift-keyed (MCPSK) signal purturbed by a noisy reference carrier, multiple interferences, and additive Gaussian noise is presented taking into account the frequencey divider in the carrier recovery circuit. First, a new expression for the probability density function (pdf) of the phase of a composite wave of signal, multiple interferences, and additive Gaussian noise is derived. Then this result and a pdf of the phase error modified from the Tikhonov distribution are used to obtain the erro probability of an MCPSK detector. In addition, the comparison between the error probabilities with and without the frequency divider is given, and it is found that the estimation is more pessimistic when the frequency divider is included.     

Climate Observations - The Instrumental Record

A survey is given of the available instrumental data for monitoring and analysis of climatic variations. We focus on temperature measurements, both over land and ocean, at the surface and aloft.Over land, the older observations were subject to exposure changes which may not have been fully compensated. The effects of urbanization have been largely avoided in studies of climatic change over the last 150 years. There are few records for pre-1850 outside Europe and eastern North America, and the global network shows a recent decline. Over the ocean, sea surface temperature (SST) has been measured using buckets, engine intakes, hull sensors, buoys, and satellites. Many of these data have been effectively homogenized, but new challenges arise as observing systems evolve. Available SST and marine air temperature datasets begin in the 1850s. The data are concentrated in shipping lanes especially before 1900, and very sparse during the world wars, but additional historical data are being digitized.The radiosonde record is short (40 years) and has major gaps over the oceans, tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Instrumental heterogeneities are beginning to be assessed and removed using physical and statistical techniques. The MSU record is complete but only began in 1979, and is not highly resolved in the vertical: major biases, mainly affecting the lower-tropospheric retrieval, have been reduced as a result of recent analyses.Advanced interpolation or data-assimilation techniques are being applied to these data, but the results must be interpreted with care.     

Viscous fluid flow in an elastic pipeline

Basic equations of hydrodynamics in an elastic pipeline that are found using the vectorial notation of Newton’s law for a viscous fluid are presented. An analog of Poiseuille’s formula for the fluid flowrate in the elastic pipeline and the results of the comparative analysis of a viscous flow in elastic and rigid pipelines are given. It is shown that the ratio of the maximal fluid velocity in the pipeline cross section and the section-average velocity is similar for elastic and rigid pipelines.