Uncertainties in estimates of the risks of late effects from space radiation.

Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Using the linear-additivity model for radiation risks, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain an estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including a deep space outpost and Mars missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, e.g., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well-defined confidence limits.     

Full characterization of a compact 90Sr/90Y beta source for TID radiation testing

A new methodology for Total Ionizing Dose (TID) tests is proposed. It is based on the employment of an on-chip ⁹⁰Sr/⁹⁰Y beta source as alternative to standard methods such as ⁶⁰Co gamma rays and electrons from LINAC. The use of a compact beta source for TID tests has several advantages. In particular, the irradiation of devices with more than one radiation source results in a better representation of the complex space radiation environment composed of several types, energies and dose-rates. In addition, the use of an easy handling beta source allows the irradiation of electronic devices without any damage to other auxiliary circuit. In this work, ⁹⁰Sr/⁹⁰Y beta source dosimetry and related radiation field characteristics are discussed in depth.In order to validate the proposed source for TID tests, a rather complex device such as the “SPC56EL70L5” microcontroller from ST-Microelectronics was exposed to ⁹⁰Sr/⁹⁰Y beta rays. The results of this test were compared to that of a previous test of another sample from the same lot with a standard gamma ⁶⁰Co source. The electronic performances following the two irradiations have been found to be in excellent agreement, by demonstrating therefore the validity of the proposed beta source for TID tests.     

Relativistic electron fluxes and dose rate variations during April–May 2010 geomagnetic disturbances in the R3DR data on ISS

Space radiation has been monitored successfully using the Radiation Risks Radiometer-Dosimeter (R3D) installed at the ESA EXPOSE-R (R3DR) facility outside of the Russian Zvezda module of the International Space Station (ISS) between March 2009 and January 2011. R3DR is a Liulin type spectrometer–dosimeter with a single Si PIN detector 2 cm² of area and 0.3 mm thick. The R3DR instrument accumulated about 2 million measurements of the absorbed dose rate and flux of 10 s resolution. The total external and internal shielding before the detector of R3DR device is 0.41 g cm⁻². The calculated stopping energy of normally incident particles to the detector is 0.78 MeV for electrons and 15.8 MeV for protons. After the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) at 09:54 UTC on 3 April 2010, a shock was observed at the ACE spacecraft at 0756 UTC on 5 April, which led to a sudden impulse on Earth at 08:26 UTC. Nevertheless, while the magnetic substorms on 5 and 6 of April were moderate; the second largest in history of GOES fluence of electrons with energy >2 MeV was measured. The R3DR data show a relatively small amount of relativistic electrons on 5 April. The maximum dose rate of 2323 μGy day⁻¹ was reached on 7 April; by 9 April, a dose of 6600 μGy was accumulated. By the end of the period on 7 May 2010 a total dose of 11,587 μGy was absorbed. Our data were compared with AE-8 MIN, CRESS and ESA-SEE1 models using SPENVIS and with similar observations on American, Japanese and Russian satellites.     

Modified energy cascade model adapted for a multicrop Lunar greenhouse prototype

Models are required to accurately predict mass and energy balances in a bioregenerative life support system. A modified energy cascade model was used to predict outputs of a multi-crop (tomatoes, potatoes, lettuce and strawberries) Lunar greenhouse prototype. The model performance was evaluated against measured data obtained from several system closure experiments. The model predictions corresponded well to those obtained from experimental measurements for the overall system closure test period (five months), especially for biomass produced (0.7% underestimated), water consumption (0.3% overestimated) and condensate production (0.5% overestimated). However, the model was less accurate when the results were compared with data obtained from a shorter experimental time period, with 31%, 48% and 51% error for biomass uptake, water consumption, and condensate production, respectively, which were obtained under more complex crop production patterns (e.g. tall tomato plants covering part of the lettuce production zones). These results, together with a model sensitivity analysis highlighted the necessity of periodic characterization of the environmental parameters (e.g. light levels, air leakage) in the Lunar greenhouse.     

Mapping lunar surface chemistry: New prospects with the Chandrayaan-2 Large Area Soft X-ray Spectrometer (CLASS)

Surface chemistry of airless bodies in the solar system can be derived from remote X-ray spectral measurements from an orbiting spacecraft. X-rays from planetary surfaces are excited primarily by solar X-rays. Several experiments in the past have used this technique of X-ray fluorescence for deriving abundances of the major rock forming elements. The Chandrayaan-2 orbiter carries an X-ray fluorescence experiment named CLASS that is designed based on results from its predecessor C1XS flown on Chandrayaan-1. We discuss the new aspects of lunar science that can be potentially achieved with CLASS.     

Occurrence of equatorial plasma bubbles over Kolhapur

This paper reports the nightglow observations of OI 630.0 nm emissions, made by using all sky imager operating at low latitude station Kolhapur (16.8°N, 74.2°E and dip lat. 10.6°N) during high sunspot number years of 24th solar cycle. The images are analyzed to study the nocturnal, seasonal and solar activity dependence occurrence of plasma bubbles. We observed EPBs in images regularly during a limited period 19:30 to 02:30 LT and reach maximum probability of occurrence at 22:30 LT. The observation pattern of EPBs shows nearly no occurrence during the month of May and it maximizes during the period October–April. The equinox and solstice seasonal variations in the occurrence of plasma bubbles show nearly equal and large differences, respectively, between years of 2010–11 and 2011–12.     

Changes in surface UV solar irradiance and ozone over the balkans during the eclipse of August 11, 1999

Intensive measurements of UV solar irradiance, total ozone and surface ozone were carried out during the solar eclipse of 11 August 1999 at Thessaloniki, Greece and Stara Zagora, Bulgaria, located very close to the footprint of the moon's shadow during the solar eclipse with the maximum coverage of the solar disk reaching about 90% and 96% respectively. It is shown that during the eclipse the diffuse component is reduced less compared to the decline of the direct solar irradiance at the shorter wavelengths. A 20-minute oscillation of erythemal UV-B solar irradiance was observed before and after the time of the eclipse maximum under clear skies, indicating a possible 20-minute fluctuation in total ozone presumably caused by the eclipse induced gravity waves. The surface ozone measurements at Thessaloniki display a decrease of around 10–15 ppbv during the solar eclipse. Similarly, ozone profile measurements with a lidar system indicate a decrease of ozone up to 2 km during the solar eclipse. The eclipse offered the opportunity to test our understanding of tropospheric ozone chemistry. The use of a chemical box model suggested that photochemistry can account for a significant portion of the observed surface ozone decrease.     

Estimation of optical maturity parameter for lunar soil characterization using Moon Mineralogy Mapper (M3)

Prolonged exposure of the microscopic outer layer of the lunar surface to the space environment leads to the maturation of the surface. Maturation can be quantified and it may be expressed in terms of optical maturity (OMAT). Optical maturity estimations are very much helpful in the identification and mapping of the major minerals present on the lunar regolith. Estimation of the maturation and mineral mapping using remote sensing techniques are achieved, by coupling spectral reflectance of the lunar surface with an optimized origin. The present work estimates the optical maturity and Ferrous oxide content of the Goldschmidt and Schrodinger craters, through the recalibration of the classical method of Lucey et al. (2000a) with an origin of (0.08, 1.18) and Moon Mineralogy Mapper (M3) data. The overall recalibration results assure that the craters are highly matured.     

Investigation of ionospheric response to two moderate geomagnetic storms using GPS–TEC measurements in the South American and African sectors during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24

The responses of the ionospheric F region using GPS–TEC measurements during two moderate geomagnetic storms at equatorial, low-, and mid-latitude regions over the South American and African sectors in May 2010, during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24, are investigated. The first moderate geomagnetic storm studied reached a minimum Dst value of −64 nT at 1500 UT on 02 May 2010 and the second moderate geomagnetic storm reached a minimum Dst value of −85 nT at 1400 UT on 29 May 2010. In this paper, we present vertical total electron content (VTEC) and phase fluctuations (in TECU/min) from Global Positioning System (GPS) observations from the equatorial to mid-latitude regions in the South American and African sectors. Our results obtained during these two moderate geomagnetic storms from both sectors show significant positive ionospheric storms during daytime hours at the equatorial, low-, and mid-latitude regions during the main and recovery phases of the storms. The thermospheric wind circulation change towards the equator is a strong indicator that suggests an important mechanism is responsible for these positive phases at these regions. A pre-storm event that was observed in the African sector from low- to the mid-latitude regions on 01 May 2010 was absent in the South American sector. This study also showed that there was no generation or suppression of ionospheric irregularities by storm events. Therefore, knowledge about the suppression and generation of ionospheric irregularities during moderate geomagnetic storms is still unclear.     

Assessment of precision in ionospheric electron density profiles retrieved by GPS radio occultations

The Constellation Observing System for Meteorology Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) is a six satellite radio occultation mission that was launched in April 2006. The close proximity of these satellites during some months after launch provides a unique opportunity to evaluate the precision of Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO) retrievals of ionospheric electron density from nearly collocated and simultaneous observations. RO data from 30 consecutive days during July and August 2006 are divided into ten groups in terms of daytime or nighttime and latitude. In all cases, the best precision values (about 1%) are found at the F peak height and they slightly degrade upwards. For all daytime groups, it is seen that electron density profiles above about 120 km height exhibit a substantial improvement in precision. Nighttime groups are rather diverse: in particular, the precision becomes better than 10% above different levels between 120 and 200 km height. Our overall results show that up to 100–200 km (depending on each group), the uncertainty associated with the precision is in the order of the measured electron density values. Even worse, the retrieved values tend sometimes to be negative. Although we cannot rely directly on electron density values at these altitudes, the shape of the profiles could be indicative of some ionospheric features (e.g. waves and sporadic E layers). Above 200 km, the profiles of precision are qualitatively quite independent from daytime or latitude. From all the nearly collocated pairs studied, only 49 exhibited a difference between line of sight angles of both RO at the F peak height larger than 10°. After analyzing them we find no clear indications of a significant representativeness error in electron density profiles due to the spherical assumption above 120 km height. Differences in precision between setting and rising GPS RO may be attributed to the modification of the processing algorithms applied to rising cases during the initial period of the COSMIC mission.