Global Non-Potential Magnetic Models of the Solar Corona During the March 2015 Eclipse

Seven different models are applied to the same problem of simulating the Sun’s coronal magnetic field during the solar eclipse on 2015 March 20. All of the models are non-potential, allowing for free magnetic energy, but the associated electric currents are developed in significantly different ways. This is not a direct comparison of the coronal modelling techniques, in that the different models also use different photospheric boundary conditions, reflecting the range of approaches currently used in the community. Despite the significant differences, the results show broad agreement in the overall magnetic topology. Among those models with significant volume currents in much of the corona, there is general agreement that the ratio of total to potential magnetic energy should be approximately 1.4. However, there are significant differences in the electric current distributions; while static extrapolations are best able to reproduce active regions, they are unable to recover sheared magnetic fields in filament channels using currently available vector magnetogram data. By contrast, time-evolving simulations can recover the filament channel fields at the expense of not matching the observed vector magnetic fields within active regions. We suggest that, at present, the best approach may be a hybrid model using static extrapolations but with additional energization informed by simplified evolution models. This is demonstrated by one of the models.     

A model-based prognostics method for fatigue crack growth in fuselage panels

This paper proposes a model-based prognostics method that couples the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) and a new developed linearization method. The proposed prognostics method is developed in the context of fatigue crack propagation in fuselage panels where the model parameters are unknown and the crack propagation is affected by different types of uncertainties. The coupled method is composed of two steps. The first step employs EKF to estimate the unknown model parameters and the current damage state. In the second step, the proposed efficient linearization method is applied to compute analytically the statistical distribution of the damage evolution path in some future time. A numerical case study is implemented to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. The results show that the coupled EKF-linearization method provides satisfactory results: the EKF algorithm well identifies the model parameters, and the linearization method gives comparable prediction results to Monte Carlo (MC) method while leading to very significant computational cost saving. The proposed prognostics method for fatigue crack growth can be used for developing predictive maintenance strategy for an aircraft fleet, in which case, the computational cost saving is significantly meaningful.     

Geometric problem solving with strings and pins

Humans solve spatial and abstract problems more easily if these can be visualized and/or physically manipulated. We analyze the domain of geometric problem solving from a cognitive perspective and identify several levels of domain abstraction that interact in the problem solving process. We discuss the roles of physical manifestations of spatial configurations, their manipulation, and their perception for understanding problem solving processes. We propose an extension of the classical problem solving repertoire of constructive geometry to approach certain problems more directly than under the compass-and-straightedge paradigm. Specifically, we introduce strings and pins as helpful metaphors for a generalization of the constructive geometry approach. We present classical problems from spatial problem solving to illustrate the ‘strings and pins’ paradigm. Three case studies are discussed: strings-and-pins solutions to (i) the ellipse construction problem; (ii) the shortest path problem; and (iii) the angle trisection problem. Comparisons to formal solutions are drawn. Differences and similarities between the compass-and-straightedge paradigm and the strings-and-pins paradigm are analyzed. Features and limitations of constructive and depictive geometry as well as implications for computational approaches are discussed. The strings-and-pins domain is shown to be more general and less restrictive than the compass-and-straightedge domain.     

Application of a Multiple Hypothesis Filter to near GEO high area-to-mass ratio space objects state estimation

Optical surveys have identified a class of high area-to-mass ratio (HAMR) objects in the vicinity of the Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO) regime. The nature of these objects is not well known, though their proximity to the GEO belt implies origins from space objects (SOs) near GEO. These HAMR objects pose a collision hazard as they transit through the vicinity of active GEO satellites. Due to their high area-to-mass ratios (AMRs), ranging from 0.1 to 20 m²/kg and higher, the effective solar radiation pressure perturbs their orbits significantly. Improvements in detection sensitivity will result in large numbers of uncorrelated tracks from surveys. A Multiple Hypothesis Filter (MHF) approach to the initial state estimation and track association provides a potentially automated and efficient approach to the processing of multiple un-correlated tracks.The availability of long-term optical angles data collected for a set of near GEO HAMR objects provides the means for testing candidate estimation processes such as the MHF. A baseline orbit determination (OD) process uses an Extended Kalman Filter/Smoother to manually estimate the 6 orbital elements and the effective area-to-mass ratio (AMR) which drives the solar radiation pressure perturbations on the orbital trajectories. In addition to allowing the characterization of the long-term behavior of the AMR, this process establishes a pseudo-truth trajectory to which the MHF analysis can be compared. An Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) is applied in the MHF estimation process to estimate the 6 orbital elements and AMR, with no a priori state assumptions, and the results are compared to the pseudo-truth results for validation.The work to be presented summarizes the UKF/MHF process and assesses state estimation performance based on selected data for selected near GEO HAMR objects having a range of AMR value and variations. The prediction accuracy is also assessed by comparing predictions derived from filter updates to segments of the pseudo-truth trajectory determined from data not included in the updates.     

Traverses for the ISECG-GER design reference mission for humans on the lunar surface

This study explores the Design Reference Mission (DRM) architecture developed by Hufenbach et al. (2015) as a prelude to the release of the 2018 Global Exploration Roadmap (GER) developed by the International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG). The focus of this study is the exploration of the south polar region of the Moon, a region that has not been visited by any human missions, yet exhibits a multitude of scientifically important locations – the investigation of which will address long standing questions in lunar research. This DRM architecture involves five landing sites (Malapert massif, South Pole/Shackleton crater, Schrödinger basin, Antoniadi crater, and the South Pole-Aitken basin center), to be visited in sequential years by crew, beginning in 2028. Two Lunar Electric Rovers (LER) are proposed to be tele-robotically operated between sites to rendez-vous with crew at the time of the next landing. With engineering parameters in mind we explore the feasibility of tele-robotic operation of these LERs between lunar landing sites, and identify potential high interest sampling locations en-route. Additionally, in-depth sample collection and return traverses are identified for each individual landing site across key geologic terrains that also detail crew Extra-Vehicular Activity (EVA). Exploration at and between landing sites is designed to address a suite of National Research Council (2007) scientific concepts.     

Changes in cosmic ray propagation induced by corotating interaction regions

By simulating the trajectories for scatter free and diffusive propagation of relativistic cosmic rays in a model of the heliospheric magnetic fields containing a representation of corotating interaction regions (CIR's) we find that, due to the large gradients associated with these compression regions, the motion is strongly affected and differs substantially from the predictions of current modulation theory. For positive (outward) northern hemisphere polarity particles do not stream purely from high latitudes but can come from almost any latitude in the outer heliosphere; for negative polarity many particles come along the current sheet (as predicted) but a second, equally important, poipulation exists comprising particles that do not start on the current sheet but are brought to low latitudes by their interaction with CIR's. Thus, we conclude that CIR's (and other large scale structures) cannot be ignored in analyses of cosmic ray modulation.     

"Escape" velocity

An astronaut reviews crew escape systems used in the NASA Shuttle Program and explores options for upgrading crew safety on future Shuttle missions.     

Columbia: point of departure

The author provides a brief update of NASA safety management after the Columbia accident and the development of space transport systems after the Shuttle.