Forecasting the 23 and 24 solar cycles on the basis of MGM spectrum

A new method of nonlinear spectral analysis (called the method of global minimum: MGM), based on the best presentation (in sense of minimal squares) of a given time data set as a sum of sinusoids whose frequencies, amplitudes and phases are to be determined, has been used to find periodicities in annual Wolf sunspot numbers (W) during the period 1700–1995. The possible future behaviour of the 11-year solar cycle (based on an extrapolation of the calculated model) is also presented. The main characteristics of the 23^rd solar cycle are as follows: the W maximum occurs about 2004, with a peak of nearly 220. An unusually large value of W will occur during the 23^rd cycle, which should be characterised by the longest maximum, specifically, W will be greater than 100 during the 11-year period from 1997 to 2007. The first sharp rise will occur during the period 1996–1998, the second sharp during 2002–2004. The main features of the 24 year cycle are as follows: the next minimum in W, associated with the 24^th solar cycle, should occur in the year 2008 and the maximum in 2014. W is expected to peak at about 180. The minimum value for the 25^th year cycle is expected to occur in the year 2019. It is shown that the accuracy of these predictions depends, first of all, on the extrapolation of the hyperlong harmonic of the calculated polyharmonic model fit of observed annual sunspot numbers during the period 1700–1995. The error bars in the definition of the maximum and minimum epochs can be as large as two years.     

Observer-type Kalman innovation filter for uncertain linear systems

An observer-type of Kalman innovation filtering algorithm to find a practically implementable "best" Kalman filter, and such an algorithm based on the evolutionary programming (EP) optima-search technique, are proposed, for linear discrete-time systems with time-invariant unknown-but-hounded plant and noise uncertainties. The worst-case parameter set from the stochastic uncertain system represented by the interval form with respect to the implemented "best" filter is also found in this work for demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed filtering scheme. The new EP-based algorithm utilizes the global optima-searching capability of EP to find the optimal Kalman filter and state estimates at every iteration, which include both the best possible worst case Interval and the optimal nominal trajectory of the Kalman filtering estimates of the system state vectors. Simulation results are included to show that the new algorithm yields more accurate estimates and is less conservative as compared with other related robust filtering schemes     

Paramecium--a model system for studying cellular graviperception.

Experiments under varied gravitational accelerations as well as in density-adjusted media showed that sensation of gravity in protists may be linked to the known principles of mechanosensation. Paramecium, a ciliate with clear graviresponses (gravitaxis and gravikinesis) is an ideal model system to prove this hypothesis since the ciliary activity and thus the swimming behaviour is controlled by the membrane potential. It has also been assumed that the cytoplasmic mass causes a distinct stimulation of the bipolarly distributed mechano-sensitive K+ and Ca2+ ion channels in the plasma membrane in dependence of the spatial orientation of the cell. In order to prove this hypothesis, different channel blockers are currently under investigation. Gadolinium did not inhibit gravitaxis in Paramecium, showing that it does not specifically block gravireceptors. Further studies concentrated on the question of whether second messengers are involved in the gravity signal transduction chain. Exposure to 5 g for up to 10 min led to a significant increase in cAMP.     

Steady-state analysis and design of a switched-capacitor DC-DCconverter

A representative switched-capacitor DC-DC converter topology is presented, circuit operation is explained, and control strategies are identified. State-space averaging is used to analyze steady-state performance and to develop control criteria and design equations. The analytical results are verified by SPICE simulation     

The Freja ultraviolet imager

Auroral images acquired by satellite instrumentation have proven to be a crucial component of the scientific equiry into the physical processes of the Earth's magnetosphere. TheFreja mission provided an opportunity to extend these measurements into the temporal and spatial regime commonly associated with ground-based optical imagers. Employing the basic procedure used successfully in theViking program allowed image repetition rates of 6 s to be achieved with simultaneous exposure of all pixels within the field-of-view. Typical exposure times of 0.3 s required development of an improved image intensifier system and operational requirements resulted in image formats covering approximately one-third of a spin. Simultaneously exposing two broad-band UV cameras, the instrument generates in its normal operational mode 264.6 kbytes per image pair. Results from initial operations confirm the design approach and suggest such imagers can be routinely included on challenging low cost missions such asFreja.     

Rationale for the development of the UK defence standards forsafety-critical computer software

Changes in the procurement environment and developments in technology that will require the adoption of new development certification procedures within the next few years are examined. Characteristics of safety-critical computer systems and the safety problems posed by digital computers are described. The way in which the changes have influenced the preparation of the new draft defence standards offered for public debate in the UK prior to their formal adoption by the Ministry of Defence is discussed. Principle features of the future safety-critical systems policy are outlined. The use of Ada for safety-critical software is considered     

Dose equivalent, absorbed dose and charge spectrum investigation in low Earth orbit.

Particle intensity, dose equivalent and absorbed dose have been measured on board the space shuttle Endeavour during STS-108 in December 2001 by Dublin Institute for Advanced Studies (DIAS). The dose estimates are based on very accurate measurements of recoils produced in CR-39 by cosmic ray primary and secondary protons and heavier nuclei and by secondary neutrons. The corresponding LET spectra were used to determine dose equivalent and absorbed dose values. Estimates of the total flux of Z > or = 2 nuclei have been undertaken and a preliminary charge spectrum was measured. Some comparisons are made with preliminary data obtained on STS-105 (ISS Expedition) and other missions using CR-39 detectors.     

Century scale solar variability imprinted in the 44Ti activity in meteorites.

The measurements of gamma-activity of the 44Ti (T1/2 = 66.6 years) produced by spallation reaction of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) in Alfianello, Olivenza, Rio Negro, Dhajala and Torino meteorites, which fell in the time interval 1883 AD (Alfianello)-1988 AD (Torino), show a century scale modulation, connected to long-term solar-wind flux variations in the interplanetary space. The variation of the 44Ti activity with the time of fall of meteorites is qualitatively consistent with the Gleissberg solar cycle, but the amplitude is three-four times higher than expected (about 5%) for GCR flux modulated by solar activity, as determined solely by the sunspot number. The cosmogenic 44Ti is a suitable radioisotope for this investigation, but its activity in meteorites is very low. We performed these measurements in the underground low level counting station of Monte dei Cappuccini in Torino, by means of a big hyperpure Ge crystal (approximately 2 kg) in selective coincidence with a heavy NaI (T1) scintillation detector (approximately 28 kg). This system allows a reliable and non destructive measurement of 44Ti (44Sc) in meteorites of 200-1200 g in weight. The background is about 1 count per day in the gamma-peak at 1157 keV of 44Sc in equilibrium with its parent 44Ti. The high stability of the performance allows long-lasting runs (approximately 10(7) s) in order to attain results with a standard deviation up to about 10%.     

Molecular alterations in tumorigenic human bronchial and breast epithelial cells induced by high LET radiation.

Carcinogenesis is a multi-stage process with sequence of genetic events governing the phenotypic expression of a series of transformation steps leading to the development of metastatic cancer. In the present study, immortalized human bronchial (BEP2D) and breast (MCF-10F) cells were irradiated with graded doses of either 150 keV/micrometer alpha particles or 1 GeV/nucleon 56Fe ions. Transformed cells developed through a series of successive steps before becoming tumorigenic in nude mice. Cell fusion studies indicated that radiation-induced tumorigenic phenotype in BEP2D cells could be completely suppressed by fusion with non-tumorigenic BEP2D cells. The differential expressions of known genes between tumorigenic bronchial and breast cells induced by alpha particles and their respective control cultures were compared using cDNA expression array. Among the 11 genes identified to be differentially expressed in BEP2D cells, three (DCC, DNA-PK and p21(CIP1)) were shown to be consistently down-regulated by 2 to 4 fold in all the 5 tumor cell lines examined. In contrast, their expressions in the fusion cell lines were comparable to control BEP2D cells. Similarly, expression levels of a series of genes were found to be altered in a step-wise manner among tumorigenic MCF-10F cells. The results are highly suggestive that functional alterations of these genes may be causally related to the carcinogenic process.