Neural network development for the forecasting of upper atmosphere parameter distributions

This paper presents a neural network modeling approach to forecast electron concentration distributions in the 150–600 km altitude range above Arecibo, Puerto Rico. The neural network was trained using incoherent scatter radar data collected at the Arecibo Observatory during the past two decades, as well as the Kp geomagnetic index provided by the National Space Science Data Center. The data set covered nearly two solar cycles, allowing the neural network to model daily, seasonal, and solar cycle variations of upper atmospheric parameter distributions. Two types of neural network architectures, feedforward and Elman recurrent, are used in this study. Topics discussed include the network design, training strategy, data analysis, as well as preliminary testing results of the networks on electron concentration distributions.     

Emerging magnetic flux,flares and filaments — FBS interval 16–23 June 1980

17 emerging magnetic flux regions with arch filaments related to new sunspots were identified in Hale Active Region No. 16918 during the 7 day interval from 16–22 June. Most of the new flux regions were clustered around the filament channel between the old opposite polarity fields as were most of the flares. The two largest regions of new magnetic flux and a few of the smaller flux regions developed very near the end points of filaments. This suggests that the emergence of flux in existing active regions might be non-random in position along a filament channel as well as in distance from a filament channel.We have analyzed the positions of 88 flares to date during about half of each day. We find that slightly more than half (50%) of the flares, irrespective of their size, are centered within the new flux regions. About 1/5 (20%) were centered on the border between the new flux and the adjacent older magnetic field. Less than 1/3 occurred outside of the newly emerging flux regions but in many cases were very close to the newly emerging flux. We conclude that at least 2/3 of the flares are intimately related to the emerging flux regions while the remaining 1/3 might be either indirectly related or unrelated to the emerging flux.     

Microphysics in Astrophysical Plasmas

Although macroscale features dominate astrophysical images and energetics, the physics is controlled through microscale transport processes (conduction, diffusion) that mediate the flow of mass, momentum, energy, and charge. These microphysical processes manifest themselves in key (all) boundary layers and also operate within the body of the plasma. Crucially, most plasmas of interest are rarefied to the extent that classical particle collision length- and time-scales are long. Collective plasma kinetic phenomena then serve to scatter or otherwise modify the particle distribution functions and in so-doing govern the transport at the microscale level. Thus collisionless plasmas are capable of supporting thin shocks, current sheets which may be prone to magnetic reconnection, and the dissipation of turbulence cascades at kinetic scales. This paper lays the foundation for the accompanying collection that explores the current state of knowledge in this subject. The richness of plasma kinetic phenomena brings with it a rich diversity of microphysics that does not always, if ever, simply mimic classical collision-dominated transport. This can couple the macro- and microscale physics in profound ways, and in ways which thus depend on the astrophysical context.     

Time profile of cosmic radiation exposure during the EXPOSE-E mission: the R3DE instrument

The aim of this paper is to present the time profile of cosmic radiation exposure obtained by the Radiation Risk Radiometer-Dosimeter during the EXPOSE-E mission in the European Technology Exposure Facility on the International Space Station's Columbus module. Another aim is to make the obtained results available to other EXPOSE-E teams for use in their data analysis. Radiation Risk Radiometer-Dosimeter is a low-mass and small-dimension automatic device that measures solar radiation in four channels and cosmic ionizing radiation as well. The main results of the present study include the following: (1) three different radiation sources were detected and quantified-galactic cosmic rays (GCR), energetic protons from the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) region of the inner radiation belt, and energetic electrons from the outer radiation belt (ORB); (2) the highest daily averaged absorbed dose rate of 426 μGy d(-1) came from SAA protons; (3) GCR delivered a much smaller daily absorbed dose rate of 91.1 μGy d(-1), and the ORB source delivered only 8.6 μGy d(-1). The analysis of the UV and temperature data is a subject of another article (Schuster et al., 2012 ).     

A reappraisal of the habitability of planets around M dwarf stars

Stable, hydrogen-burning, M dwarf stars make up about 75% of all stars in the Galaxy. They are extremely long-lived, and because they are much smaller in mass than the Sun (between 0.5 and 0.08 M(Sun)), their temperature and stellar luminosity are low and peaked in the red. We have re-examined what is known at present about the potential for a terrestrial planet forming within, or migrating into, the classic liquid-surface-water habitable zone close to an M dwarf star. Observations of protoplanetary disks suggest that planet-building materials are common around M dwarfs, but N-body simulations differ in their estimations of the likelihood of potentially habitable, wet planets that reside within their habitable zones, which are only about one-fifth to 1/50th of the width of that for a G star. Particularly in light of the claimed detection of the planets with masses as small as 5.5 and 7.5 M(Earth) orbiting M stars, there seems no reason to exclude the possibility of terrestrial planets. Tidally locked synchronous rotation within the narrow habitable zone does not necessarily lead to atmospheric collapse, and active stellar flaring may not be as much of an evolutionarily disadvantageous factor as has previously been supposed. We conclude that M dwarf stars may indeed be viable hosts for planets on which the origin and evolution of life can occur. A number of planetary processes such as cessation of geothermal activity or thermal and nonthermal atmospheric loss processes may limit the duration of planetary habitability to periods far shorter than the extreme lifetime of the M dwarf star. Nevertheless, it makes sense to include M dwarf stars in programs that seek to find habitable worlds and evidence of life. This paper presents the summary conclusions of an interdisciplinary workshop (http://mstars.seti.org) sponsored by the NASA Astrobiology Institute and convened at the SETI Institute.     

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