The conundrum of software estimation models

There are many sophisticated models and methods for estimating the size, cost, and schedule of software projects. However, the ability to accurately estimate software cost, size, or schedule is still dubious. In general, the predictive accuracy of models for estimating software development cost and schedule has not been shown to be better than “within 25 percent of actual cost or schedule, about one half of the time”, especially for Department of Defense software efforts. The same is true for software size estimating models and methods, although there are some studies that have shown superior results. For software support (or maintenance) cost estimation, no model has been demonstrated to be accurate. This paper presents a summary of efforts performed to date which demonstrate the accuracy (or lack thereof) of software models. The results of several studies in the areas of software development cost and schedule estimation, size estimation, and support cost estimation are presented to show what these models can and cannot do. Some ideas for improvement are also presented, including the results of some studies which may lead to a resolution of the accuracy conundrum which currently exists     

Embedded information system re-engineering

Currently fielded embedded information systems face readiness challenges imposed by evolving missions and extended service lifespans. The ability to overcome these challenges is constrained by such factors as shrinking budgets, limited computational capacity and diminished manufacturing sources effects that impact both hardware and software options. Wholesale redevelopment is often cost prohibitive, particularly since large portions of embedded applications continue to fulfil mission requirements. Solutions must preserve prior investments while providing efficient pathways for continued technology refresh. A technology solution for affordable modernization of legacy system software is being development. The Embedded Information System Re-engineering (EISR) project is developing an automation-assisted JOVIAL-to-C re-engineering capability that permits simultaneous modernization of both the structure and source language of legacy embedded applications. Engineers will be able to apply the proven labor-saving visualization and analysis features of modern CASE tools to legacy JOVIAL applications. EISR will thus allow the DoD to recapture previous investments in proven legacy algorithms and mission capabilities while permitting the full exploitation of COTS economies of scale. This paper describes in brief the goals and objectives of the EISR project, and provides the current status of the EISR capability.     

Markets and Models for Large-Scale Courseware Development

Computer-aided instruction (CAI) has not achieved widespread use, even though experimental results have been promising, because of a complex of technical, economic, and social factors. The problems these factors produce might be overcome if a major ?market success? could be achieved with CAI systems. One potentially high-volume market, having probably a lower resistance to profound innovation than other sectors of education, is the junior college. To achieve a market success which would catalyze public and private investment to sustain the growth and dissemination of CAI requires technical solutions in the areas of hardware, software, and courseware. Courseware is a term designating the applications programs for CAI systems and associated textual, audio-visual, and other materials of instruction. Two different approaches to the production of courseware and their underlying philosophies are discussed and contrasted. The extent to which these different models of courseware design and development might lead toward the goal of mass dissemination is highlighted.     

Some regularities in the relationship of limb coronal mass ejections with eruptive prominences and post-eruptive arcades

A positive correlation is shown to exist between the angular sizes (in the sky plane) of eruptive prominences and/or post-eruptive arcades and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) associated with them. New regularities are found that characterize the relationship between the latitude of eruptive prominences (post-eruptive arcades) and the latitude position of CMEs associated with them in the field of view of a coronagraph. An interpretation of these regularities is given.     

Fiber-optic gyros and quartz accelerometers for motion control

In article the opportunity of use strapdown inertial navigation system (SINS) on the base of fiber-optic gyroscopes and quartz accelerometers corrected from star sensors and satellite navigation equipment (SNE) for perspective interplanetary spacecrafts motion control on phases of interplanetary trajectory insertion, trajectory correction, and braking during transition to Mars orbit is investigated. Results of onboard control complex accuracy characteristics estimation are presented at the given dynamic spacecraft scheme which is taking into account the liquid oscillations in tanks and structure elements elasticity. At modelling the errors of measuring devices installation, errors of SINS initial alignment and instrumental errors of SINS sensitive elements, variation of control engines parameters were taken into account. The structure of the developed complex of imitation modelling of interplanetary spacecraft controlled motion is resulted. Estimations of active flight legs realization accuracy were received by a method of statistical modelling of spacecraft controlled motion     

Solar wind turbulence during the solar cycle deduced from Galileo coronal radio-sounding experiments

Seven coronal radio-sounding campaigns were carried out during the active lifetime of the Galileo spacecraft in the years 1994–2002. The observational data analyzed in the present work are S-band frequency fluctuation measurements recorded during the solar conjunctions at different phases of solar activity cycle #23, specifically: periods near solar maximum (three conjunctions), near solar minimum (three conjunctions) and during the ascending phase (one conjunction). These data are all applicable to low heliographic latitudes, i.e. to the slow solar wind. The rms frequency fluctuation and power-law index of the frequency fluctuation temporal spectra are determined as a function of heliocentric distance. The turbulence power spectrum tends to be flatter inside ca. 20 solar radii during all phases of the solar cycle. This coincides with a transition in the flow from the inner acceleration region to the outer region of constant velocity. The radial falloff rate and absolute level of the rms frequency fluctuation are essentially invariant over the solar cycle.     

Integral-projection method and singularities of its application in mating shells with inconsistent parameters of approximation

We describe a numerical integral-projection method used by the authors for the approximate solution of systems of interrelated two-dimensional linear boundary-value problems in mechanics of composite shell systems. The method is based on discretization in each shell substructure of a two-dimensional problem along one of coordinates using a projection-grid variant of the Galerkin-Petrov method and its subsequent transformation to a system of ordinary differential equations; by integration and introduction of sought functions as unknown derivatives, the system is reduced to a system of integral equations being solved by the method of mechanical quadratures. The method is characterized by the fact that its application requires no additional conditions of conformity with discretization parameters of substructures being mated.