Why space physics needs to go beyond the MHD box

Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) theory has been used in space physics for more than forty years, yet many important questions about space plasmas remain unanswered. We still do not understand how the solar wind is accelerated, how mass, momentum and energy are transported into the magnetosphere and what mechanisms initiate substorms. Questions have been raised from the beginning of the space era whether MHD theory can describe correctly space plasmas that are collisionless and rarely in thermal equilibrium. Ideal MHD fluids do not induce electromotive force, hence they lose the capability to interact electromagnetically. No currents and magnetic fields are generated, rendering ideal MHD theory not very useful for space plasmas. Observations from the plasma sheet are used as examples to show how collisionless plasmas behave. Interpreting these observations using MHD and ideal MHD concepts can lead to misleading conclusions. Notably, the bursty bulk flows (BBF) with large mean velocities left(〈 v 〉≥400 km s right) that have been interpreted previously as E×B flows are shown to involve much more complicated physics. The sources of these nonvanishing 〈 v 〉 events, while still not known, are intimately related to mechanisms that create large phase space gradients that include beams and acceleration of ions to MeV energies. The distributions of these nonvanishing 〈 v 〉 events are associated with large amplitude variations of the magnetic field at frequencies up to and exceeding the local Larmor frequency where MHD theory is not valid. Understanding collisionless plasma dynamics such as substorms in the plasma sheet requires the self-consistency that only kinetic theory can provide. Kinetic modeling is still undergoing continual development with many studies limited to one and two dimensions, but there is urgent need to improve these models as more and more data show kinetic physics is fundamentally important. Only then will we be able to make progress and obtain a correct picture of how collisionless plasmas work in space.     

A Possible Transfer Mechanism for the 11-Year Solar Cycle to the Lower Stratosphere

Observational evidence of the 11-year solar cycle (SC) modulation of stratosphere temperatures and winds from the ERA-40 dataset is reviewed, with emphasis on the Northern winter hemisphere. A frequency modulation of sudden warming events is noted, with warmings occurring earlier in solar minimum periods than in solar maximum periods. The observed interaction between the influence of the SC and the quasi biennial oscillation (QBO) on the frequency of sudden warmings is noted as a possible clue for understanding their mechanism of influence. A possible transfer route for the 11-year solar cycle from the equatorial stratopause region to the lowest part of the stratosphere is proposed, via an influence on sudden warming events and the associated induced meridional circulation. SC and QBO composites of zonal wind anomalies show anomalous wind distributions in the subtropical upper stratosphere in early winter. Mechanistic model experiments are reviewed that demonstrate a sensitivity of sudden warmings to small wind anomalies in this region. Various diagnostics from these experiments are shown, including EP fluxes and their divergence and also the synoptic evolution of the polar vortex, in order to understand the mechanism of the influence. Some recent GCM experiments to investigate the SC/QBO interaction are also described. They simulate reasonably well the observed SC/QBO interaction of sudden warming events and appear to support the hypothesis that tropical/subtropical upper stratospheric wind anomalies are an important influence on the timing of sudden warmings.     

Optimum Steady State Position, Velocity, and Acceleration Estimation Using Noisy Sampled Position Data

A one-dimensional tracking filter based on the Kalman filtering techniques for tracking of a dynamic target such as an aircraft is discussed. The target is assumed to be moving with constant acceleration and is acted upon by a plant noise which perturbs its constant acceleration motion. The plant noise accounts for maneuvers and/or other random factors. Analytical results for estimating optimum steady state position, velocity, and acceleration of the target are obtained.     

Design of a Correlator for Real-Time Video Comparisons

The problem of locating a reference image within a larger image using a correlation technique is discussed. Although the particular application discussed is that of locating a reference image obtained from one video sensor or a photograph, within the larger field of view obtained from a second video sensor in real time (i.e., at the TV field rate), the results are general and useful for a number of applications. The tradeoffs necessary to obtain real time correlat are discussed and their effect on correlation accuracy is given.     

Present-Day Sea Level Change: Observations and Causes

We investigate climate-related processes causing variations of the global mean sea level on interannual to decadal time scale. We focus on thermal expansion of the oceans and continental water mass balance. We show that during the 1990s where global mean sea level change has been measured by Topex/Poseidon satellite altimetry, thermal expansion is the dominant contribution to the observed 2.5 mm/yr sea level rise. For the past decades, exchange of water between continental reservoirs and oceans had a small, but not totally negligible contribution (about 0.2 mm/yr) to sea level rise. For the last four decades, thermal contribution is estimated to about 0.5 mm/yr, with a possible accelerated rate of thermosteric rise during the 1990s. Topex/Poseidon shows an increase in mean sea level of 2.5 mm/yr over the last decade, a value about two times larger than reported by historical tide gauges. This would suggest that there has been significant acceleration of sea level rise in the recent past, possibly related to ocean warming. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Adaptive model architecture and extended Kalman-Bucy filters

In radar systems, extended Kalman-Bucy filters (EKBFs) are used to estimate state vectors of objects in track. Filter models accounting for fundamental aerodynamic forces on reentry vehicles are well known. A general model structure accommodating the dynamics of reentry vehicles in both exoatmospheric and endoatmospheric flight is presented. The associated EKBFs for these various models are described and the resulting associated parameter estimation and identification problems are discussed. The effects of position, velocity, drag, and aerodynamic lift are described within a nested set of EKBF models     

Tracking of DABS-Equipped Aircraft

The Discrete Address Beacon System (DABS) is scheduled to replace the Air Traffic Control Beacon System (ATCRBS) as the prime sensing tool for air traffic control in the 1980's. The design of DABS requires knowledge of the tracking accuracy obtainable as a function of various system parameters. In particular, the potential value of air-to-ground telemetry of turn-rate data and its effect on intermittent positive control (IPC) must be assessed. The design of DABS tracking algorithms is discussed, and the results obtained with a Kalman tracker simulation are given. The major finding is that turn-rate telemetry of moderate accuracy can improve tracking by a factor of 6 to 10.