The evolution of the anomalous component of the cosmic rays during the Ulysses mission

We have studied the evolution of the anomalous cosmic ray component at ULYSSES using observations of the quiet time helium fluxes obtained with the COSPIN Low Energy Telescope during the years from launch in October 1990 to the latest data in 1994. Shown are preliminary results of measurements in the energy range from 4.0 to 19 MeV/n. Following the drop in solar activity in late 1991, the low energy cosmic ray helium flux started to increase and continue to rise until the end of 1993, signifying the appearance of the anomalous component at ULYSSES.     

Distributed binary integration

A distributed radar detection system that employs binary integration at each local detector is studied. Local decisions are transmitted to the fusion center where they are combined to yield a global decision. The optimum values of the two thresholds at each local processor are determined so as to maximize the detection probability under a given probability of false alarm constraint. Using an important channel model, performance comparisons are made to determine the integration loss     

Efficient L-D factorization algorithms for PDA, IMM, and IMMPDAfilters

Efficient algorithms exist for the square-root probabilistic data association filter (PDAF). The same approach is extended to develop square-root versions of the interacting multiple model (IMM) Kalman filter and the IMMPDAF algorithms. The computational efficiency of the method stems from the fact that the terms needed in the overall covariance updates of PDAF, IMM, and IMMPDAF can be obtained as part of the square-root covariance update of an ordinary Kalman filter. In addition, a new square-root covariance prediction algorithm that is substantially faster than the usual modified weighted Gram-Schmidt (MWG-S) algorithm, whenever the process noise covariance matrix is time invariant, is proposed     

3He-Rich Solar Energetic Particle Events

³He-rich solar energetic particle (SEP) events show huge enrichments of ³He and association with kilovolt electrons and Type-III radio bursts. Observations from a new generation of high resolution instruments launched on the Wind, ACE, Yohkoh, SOHO, TRACE, and RHESSI spacecraft have revealed many new properties of these events: the particle energy spectra are found to be either power-law or curved in shape, with the ³He spectrum often being distinctly different from other species. Ultra-heavy nuclei up to >200 amu are found to be routinely present at average enrichments of >200 times solar-system abundances. The high ionization states previously observed near ∼1 MeV/nucleon have been found to decrease towards normal solar coronal values in these events. The source regions have been identified for many events, and are associated with X-ray jets and EUV flares that are associated with magnetic reconnection sites near active regions. This paper reviews the current experimental picture and theoretical models, with emphasis on the new insights found in the last few years.     

WHISPER, A RESONANCE SOUNDER AND WAVE ANALYSER: PERFORMANCES AND PERSPECTIVES FOR THE CLUSTER MISSION

The WHISPER sounder on the Cluster spacecraft is primarily designed to provide an absolute measurement of the total plasma density within the range 0.2–80 cm^-3. This is achieved by means of a resonance sounding technique which has already proved successful in the regions to be explored. The wave analysis function of the instrument is provided by FFT calculation. Compared with the swept frequency wave analysis of previous sounders, this technique has several new capabilities. In particular, when used for natural wave measurements (which cover here the 2–80 kHz range), it offers a flexible trade-off between time and frequency resolutions. In the basic nominal operational mode, the density is measured every 28 s, the frequency and time resolution for the wave measurements are about 600 Hz and 2.2 s, respectively. Better resolutions can be obtained, especially when the spacecraft telemetry is in burst mode. Special attention has been paid to the coordination of WHISPER operations with the wave instruments, as well as with the low-energy particle counters. When operated from the multi-spacecraft Cluster, the WHISPER instrument is expected to contribute in particular to the study of plasma waves in the electron foreshock and solar wind, to investigations about small-scale structures via density and high-frequency emission signatures, and to the analysis of the non-thermal continuum in the magnetosphere.     

Dynamic behavior and topology of 3D magnetic fields

We investigate numerically the dynamical evolution of a boundary driven, topologically complex low plasma. The initial state is a simple, but topologically nontrivial 3D magnetic field, and the evolution is driven by forced motions on two opposite boundaries of the computational domain. A large X-type reconnection event with a supersonic one-sided jet occurs as part of a process that brakes down the large scale topology of the initial field. An energetically steady state is reached, with a double arcade overall topology, in which the driving causes continuous creation of small scale thin current sheets at various locations in the arcade structures.     

One-up on L1: Can X-rays provide longer advanced warning of solar wind flux enhancements than upstream monitors?

Observations of strong solar wind proton flux correlations with ROSAT X-ray rates along with high spectral resolution Chandra observations of X-rays from the dark Moon show that soft X-ray emission mirrors the behavior of the solar wind. In this paper, based on an analysis of an X-ray event observed by XMM-Newton resulting from charge exchange of high charge state solar wind ions and contemporaneous neutral solar wind data, we argue that X-ray observations may be able to provide reliable advance warning, perhaps by as much as half a day, of dramatic increases in solar wind flux at Earth. Like neutral atom imaging, this provides the capability to monitor the solar wind remotely rather than in situ.     

Propagation of interplanetary shocks into the Earth’s magnetosphere

This paper is devoted to the study of propagation of disturbances caused by interplanetary shocks (IPS) through the Earth’s magnetosphere. Using simultaneous observations of various fast forward shocks by different satellites in the solar wind, magnetosheath and magnetosphere from 1995 till 2002, we traced the interplanetary shocks into the Earth’s magnetosphere, we calculated the velocity of their propagation into the Earth’s magnetosphere and analyzed fronts of the disturbances. From the onset of disturbances at different satellites in the magnetosphere we obtained speed values ranging from 500 to 1300 km/s in the direction along the IP shock normal, that is in a general agreement with results of previous numerical MHD simulations. The paper discusses in detail a sequence of two events on November 9th, 2002. For the two cases we estimated the propagation speed of the IP shock caused disturbance between the dayside and nightside magnetosphere to be 590 km/s and 714–741 km/s, respectively. We partially attributed this increase to higher Alfven speed in the outer magnetosphere due to the compression of the magnetosphere as a consequence of the first event, and partially to the faster and stronger driving interplanetary shock. High-time resolution GOES magnetic field data revealed a complex structure of the compressional wave fronts at the dayside geosynchronous orbit during these events, with initial very steep parts (10 s). We discuss a few possible mechanisms of such steep front formation in the paper.     

Forecasting of DST variations from polar cap indices using neural networks

The 15-min averaged polar cap (PC) index was used as an input parameter for the Dst variation forecasting. The PC index is known to describe well the principal features of the solar wind as well as the total energy input to the magnetosphere. This allowed us to design a neural network able to forecast the Dst variations from 1 to 4 h ahead. 1998 PC and Dst data sets were used for training and testing and 1997 data sets was used for validation proposes. From the 15 moderate and strong geomagnetic storms observed during 1997, nine were successfully forecasted. In three cases the observed minimum Dst value was less than the predicted one, and only in three cases the neural network was not able to reproduce the features of the geomagnetic storm.     

CME-geometry and cosmic-ray anisotropy observed by a prototype muon detector network

We analyze the cosmic-ray anisotropy observed by a prototype network of muon detectors during geomagnetic storms associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The network currently consists of multidirectional surface muon detectors at Nagoya (Japan) and Hobart (Australia), together with a prototype detector at São Martinho (Brazil) which has been in operation since March, 2001. In this report, we analyze the anisotropy recorded in both the muon detector and neutron monitor (the Spaceship Earth) networks and find significant enhancements of cosmic-ray anisotropy during geomagnetic storms. Following the analysis by Bieber and Evenson [Bieber, J.W., Evenson, P. CME geometry in relation to cosmic ray anisotropy. Geophys. Res. Lett. 25 (1998) 2955–2958] for the neutron monitor data at 10 GeV, we also derive cosmic-ray density gradients from muon data at higher-energy (50 GeV), possibly reflecting the larger-scale geometry of CMEs causing geomagnetic storms. We particularly find in some events the anisotropy enhancement clearly starting prior to the storm onset in both the muon and neutron data. This is the first result of the CME-geometry derived from simultaneous observations of the anisotropy with networks of multidirectional muon detectors and neutron monitors.