Using high-energy proton fluence to improve risk prediction for consequences of solar particle events

The potential for exposure to large solar particle events (SPEs) with high energy levels is a major concern during interplanetary transfer and extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) on the lunar and Mars surface. Previously, we have used data from the last 5 solar cycles to estimate percentiles of dose to a typical blood-forming organ (BFO) for a hypothetical astronaut in a nominally shielded spacecraft during a 120-d lunar mission. As part of this process, we made use of complete energy spectra for 34 large historical SPEs to calculate what the BFO mGy-Eq dose would have been in the above lunar scenario for each SPE. From these calculated doses, we then developed a prediction model for BFO dose based solely on an assumed value of integrated fluence above 30 MeV (Φ₃₀) for an otherwise unspecified future SPE. In this study, we reasoned that since BFO dose is determined more by protons with higher energies than by those with lower energies, more accurate BFO dose prediction models could be developed using integrated fluence above 60 (Φ₆₀) and above 100 MeV (Φ₁₀₀) as predictors instead of Φ₃₀. However to calculate the unconditional probability of a BFO dose exceeding a pre-specified limit (“BFO dose risk”), one must also take into account the distribution of the predictor (Φ_30,Φ₆₀, or Φ₁₀₀), as estimated from historical SPEs. But Φ₆₀ and Φ₁₀₀ have more variability, and less available historical information on which to estimate their distributions over many SPE occurrences, than does Φ₃₀. Therefore, when estimating BFO dose risk there is a tradeoff between increased BFO dose prediction at a given energy threshold and decreased accuracy of models for describing the distribution of that threshold over future SPEs as the threshold increases. Even when taking the second of these two factors into account, we still arrived at the conclusion that overall prediction improves as the energy level threshold increases from 30 to 60 to 100 MeV. These results can be applied to the development of approaches to improve radiation protection of astronauts and the optimization of mission planning for future space missions.     

Order of magnitude analysis of convective effects in dendritic solidification

The different types of convective phenomena which may occur during the dendritic solidification of metallic alloys are discussed from an order of magnitude analysis. Bulk thermal convection and/or interdendritic solutal convection have to be considered according to the values of the experimental data. Scaling laws for the solute boundary layer resulting from bulk thermal convection have already been derived. It is shown here that the interdendritic flow depends on a solutal Grashof number Gr based on the horizontal density gradient and a characteristic length L_s which is of the order of the liquid channels width. For Gr < 1, which is generally verified in practical cases, the interdendritic flow velocity U_r is proportional to the Grashof number. This a priori law compares favorably with the results of horizontal solidification experiments where the mean interdendritic flow velocity has been estimated from the resulting measured macrosegregation. In these experiments, as well as for most horizontal dendritic solidifications of metallic alloys at 1 g, the ratio $\text{U}{}_{\mathrm{r}}\text{R}$ (R is the growth rate) is of order one. In order to cancel the interdendritic flow effects, this ratio has to be lowered by one order of magnitude. According to our analysis, this can be obtained by performing the experiments either at a slightly reduced g level (～10^?1 g), or at 1 g in a vertical stable configuration with a sufficiently low residual horizontal thermal gradient.