A first step towards proton flux forecasting

We present a preliminary version of a potential tool for real time proton flux prediction which provides proton flux profiles and cumulative fluence profiles at 0.5 and 2 MeV of solar energetic particle events, from their onset up to the arrival of the interplanetary shock at the spacecraft position (located at 1 or 0.4 AU). Based on the proton transportation model by Lario et al. [Lario, D., Sanahuja, B., Heras, A.M. Energetic particle events: efficiency of interplanetary shocks as 50 keV E < 100 MeV proton accelerators. Astrophys. J. 509, 415–434, 1998] and the magnetohydrodynamic shock propagation model of Wu et al. [Wu, S.T., Dryer, M., Han, S.M. Non-planar MHD model for solar flare-generated disturbances in the Heliospheric equatorial plane. Sol. Phys. 84, 395–418, 1983], we have generated a database containing “synthetic” profiles of the proton fluxes and cumulative fluences of 384 solar energetic particle events. We are currently validating the applicability of this code for space weather forecasting by comparing the resulting “synthetic” flux profiles with those of several real events.     

Transient fast reconnection in dynamic current sheets with anomalous resistivity

Two-dimensional compressible magnetohydrodynamic simulations of current sheet dynamics under the influence of multiple anomalous resistivity areas and slight asymmetries are presented. Following induced tearing and multiple coalescence, a plasmoid is formed and accelerated. Dominant X-points drive the dynamical evolution and lead to transient occurrence of a Petschek-like reconnection geometry. The dependence of current density extrema, plasmoid bulk velocity and maximum reconnection rate on the Lundquist number is examined.     

Simple solutions for hyperbolic and related position fixes

Navigation fixed from range differences to three stations and an additional piece of information are investigated. It is shown that if the additional information is the navigator altitude, or the range difference to a fourth station, the computation of the navigation fix is reduced to finding the roots of a quadratic. If the additional information is the range to another station, or that the navigator is on the Earth ellipsoid, the fix can be obtained by solving a quartic. By emphasizing the underlying geometric interpretations, these fixes and their simple solutions are made clear. The derivations also show that the same solution algorithms are applicable if the basic navigation measurements are range sums instead of range differences     

Possible effects of protracted exposure on the additivity of risks from space radiations.

Conventional radiation risk assessments are presently based on the additivity assumption. This assumption states that risks from individual components of a complex radiation field involving many different types of radiation can be added to yield the total risk of the complex radiation field. If the assumption is not correct, the summations and integrations performed to obtain the presently quoted risk estimates are not appropriate. This problem is particularly important in the area of space radiation risk evaluation because of the many different types of high- and low-LET radiation present in the galactic cosmic ray environment. For both low- and high-LET radiations at low enough dose rates, the present convention is that the addivity assumption holds. Mathematically, the total risk, Rtot is assumed to be Rtot = summation (i) Ri where the summation runs over the different types of radiation present. If the total dose (or fluence) from each component is such that the interaction between biological lesions caused by separate single track traversals is negligible within a given cell, it is presently considered to be reasonable to accept the additivity assumption. However, when the exposure is protracted over many cell doubling times (as will be the case for extended missions to the moon or Mars), the possibility exists that radiation effects that depend on multiple cellular events over a long time period, such as is probably the case in radiation-induced carcinogenesis, may not be additive in the above sense and the exposure interval may have to be included in the evaluation procedure. It is shown, however, that "inverse" dose-rate effects are not expected from intermediate LET radiations arising from the galactic cosmic ray environment due to the "sensitive-window-in-the-cell-cycle" hypothesis.     

The Spacelab-Mir-1 "Greenhouse-2" experiment.

The Spacelab-Mir-1 (SLM-1) mission is the first docking of the Space Shuttle Atlantis (STS-71) with the Orbital Station Mir in June 1995. The SLM-1 "Greenhouse-2" experiment will utilize the Russian-Bulgarian-developed plant growth unit (Svet). "Greenhouse-2" will include two plantings (1) designed to test the capability of Svet to grow a crop of Superdwarf wheat from seed to seed, and (2) to provide green plant material for post-flight analysis. Protocols, procedures, and equipment for the experiment have been developed by the US-Russian science team. "Greenhouse-2" will also provide the first orbital test of a new Svet Instrumentation System (SIS) developed by Utah State University to provide near real time data on plant environmental parameters and gas-exchange rates. SIS supplements the Svet control and monitoring system with additional sensors for substrate moisture, air temperature, IR leaf temperature, light, oxygen, pressure, humidity, and carbon-dioxide. SIS provides the capability to monitor canopy transpiration and net assimilation of the plants growing in each vegetation unit (root zone) by enclosing the canopy in separate, retractable, ventilated leaf chambers. Six times during the seed-to-seed experiment, plant samples will be collected, leaf area measured, and plant parts fixed and/or dried for ground analysis. A second planting initiated 30 days before the arrival of a U.S. Shuttle [originally planned to be STS-71] is designed to provide green material at the vegetative development stage for ground analysis. [As this paper is being edited, the experiment has been delayed until after the arrival of STS-71.]     

The Suess-Urey mission (return of solar matter to Earth)

The Suess-Urey (S-U) mission has been proposed as a NASA Discovery mission to return samples of matter from the Sun to the Earth for isotopic and chemical analyses in terrestrial laboratories to provide a major improvement in our knowledge of the average chemical and isotopic composition of the solar system. The S-U spacecraft and sample return capsule will be placed in a halo orbit around the L1 Sun-Earth libration point for two years to collect solar wind ions which implant into large passive collectors made of ultra-pure materials. Constant Spacecraft-Sun-Earth geometries enable simple spin stabilized attitude control, simple passive thermal control, and a fixed medium gain antenna. Low data requirements and the safety of a Sun-pointed spinner, result in extremely low mission operations costs.     

Cyclotron masers and solar spike bursts

The theory of electron cyclotron maser emission and its application to solar spike bursts are reviewed. By analogy with the Earth's AKR, three sources of free energy are considered: a loss-cone anisotropy, a velocity-space hole, and a trapped distribution. The problem of how the radiation escapes through the second harmonic absorption layer is emphasized. Harmonic emission due to z mode coalescence may operate for some bursts, but the 2–5s delay between hard X-ray bursts and spike bursts suggests that some other mechanisms is required for most spike bursts. A model involving formation of a trapped distribution in low-density regions neighboring the flaring flux tube is considered.     

Induction of high grade astrocytoma (HGA) by protons: molecular mechanisms and RBE considerations.

Protons of a specific energy, 55 MeV, have been found to induce primary high grade astrocytomas (HGA) in the Rhesus monkey (Macaca mulatta). Brain tumors of this type were not induced by protons of other energies (32-2,300 MeV). Induction of HGA has been identified in human patients who have had radiation therapy to the head. We believe that the induction of HGA in the monkey is a consequence of dose distribution, not some unique "toxic" property of protons. Comparison of the human experience with the monkey data indicates the RBE for induction of brain tumors to be about one. It is unlikely that protons cause an unusual change in oncogenic expression, as compared to conventional electromagnetic radiation.     

Microgravity effects on "postural" muscle activity patterns.

Changes in neuromuscular activation patterns associated with movements made in microgravity can contribute to muscular atrophy. Using EMG to monitor "postural" muscles, it was found that free floating arm flexions made in microgravity were not always preceded by neuromuscular activation patterns normally observed during movements made in unit gravity. Additionally, manipulation of foot sensory input during microgravity arm flexion impacted upon anticipatory postural muscle activation.